2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[cheezyWXguy]

well im off of school, with about .25-.3 inches of sleet/ice on the roads. Not much, but just enough for a day of freedom

How much ice would it take to be more than "not much"? 0.25-0.30 is plenty enough to cause problems. Do you want tree limbs cracking and power lines falling?

hahahahaa I swear we get into this debate every year. but relative to ice, thats a ton, but in terms of sleet, there could have been more.

[Shoshana]

Just checked gauge, says we got .2"...

Yippee!

[southerngale]

I can't believe it - not a drop here in Houston - we are left dry once again.

That's the basics of it!!! After a promising start here at the house we ended up with less than 0.1" of rain before it was all done. Only a few minor damp spots to show for it and the ground is still bone dry.

How in the heck did the rain miss you guys? We got the first little line when the front came through and then quite a bit overnight. But... by quite a bit, I mean it was raining for a good while, but it was really light rain. No big puddles or anything, but everything got wet.

[TrekkerCC]

It is a solid glaze of ice here, but some of it is beginning to melting. It could be very tenuous until early afternoon (2:00pm or 3:00pm). This ice storm has been much more significant than the last big ice storm (January 2007). The January 2007 storm affected the Ft. Worth area much more than the Dallas area (we got comparatively little ice). This storm took me by surprise as the models seemed to want to hold back the upper level energy in the western US, and I thought we would have a dry week until late. I didn't notice the potential for ice until FWD hoisted winter storm watches.

[gboudx]

well im off of school, with about .25-.3 inches of sleet/ice on the roads. Not much, but just enough for a day of freedom

How much ice would it take to be more than "not much"? 0.25-0.30 is plenty enough to cause problems. Do you want tree limbs cracking and power lines falling?

hahahahaa I swear we get into this debate every year. but relative to ice, thats a ton, but in terms of sleet, there could have been more.

Lol! Yeah I guess we do discuss this. I'm just the type that doesn't like freezing rain and ice. We had about 0.25" from what I could peel off a flat board in the backyard.

[somethingfunny]

I ended up with a quarter inch of ice, plus a quarter inch of sleet.

It's almost all gone now. If all ice storms are like that, I can live with them.

When's our next shot?

[southerngale]

I ended up with a quarter inch of ice, plus a quarter inch of sleet.

It's almost all gone now. If all ice storms are like that, I can live with them.

When's our next shot?

Unfortunately, they're not. If this was like the one we had here in January, 1997, you wouldn't be on here talking to us about it. Glad it wasn't too bad up there.

Here's a post (with a few other nested quotes of my previous posts) that I made about that storm, with a few pics.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=92245&p=1506089&hilit=january+1997#p1506089

It was miserable!! I'd love to get snow again, but I hope I never see another ice storm.

[Portastorm]

OK, I'm hearing a lot of talk from pro mets on the Eastern forum (and JB) about the North American Oscillation (NAO) index going negative in February. We have a continuing weak La Nina in the Pacific. What does that mean, generally, for us in Texas? Western ridge/eastern trough?

I certainly hope not because that would mean more mild and dry. At this point, south central Texas would welcome an upper level low to stall out near the Big Bend and rain on us for a week. But I know that won't happen!

The GFS and Euro seem to suggest a major storm system impacting us around Feb. 10-12 with some cold air involved. Perhaps that is our next shot at any winter excitement. Not much time left for that happen.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, it probably doesn't happen, but 0Z GFS says Houston less than 2 weeks away from an inch of snow.

[Portastorm]

OK, it probably doesn't happen, but 0Z GFS says Houston less than 2 weeks away from an inch of snow.

C'mon Ed, you gotta believe! Positive thinking here ... either that or please declare winter over and maybe we can ride some of your Ike mojo and get a south Texas winter storm going!

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, it probably doesn't happen, but 0Z GFS says Houston less than 2 weeks away from an inch of snow.

C'mon Ed, you gotta believe! Positive thinking here ... either that or please declare winter over and maybe we can ride some of your Ike mojo and get a south Texas winter storm going!

I haven't been to the KHOU winter storm forum lately. Is Mr. SNOWANDICE still mad at WxMan57 for not having positive thoughts about STX blizzards and ice storms?

[Portastorm]

OK, it probably doesn't happen, but 0Z GFS says Houston less than 2 weeks away from an inch of snow.

C'mon Ed, you gotta believe! Positive thinking here ... either that or please declare winter over and maybe we can ride some of your Ike mojo and get a south Texas winter storm going!

I haven't been to the KHOU winter storm forum lately. Is Mr. SNOWANDICE still mad at WxMan57 for not having positive thoughts about STX blizzards and ice storms?

The last I saw, he was posting about how much he liked the arid, dry Houston weather. Go figure!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I heard that his YouTube page of the December 10th snowstorm also had other video submissions of his that featured unflushed toilets.


He could have issues.

12Z GFS near hour 180 (from PSU e-Wall 4 square loop) shows what looks like a nice cold front entering Texas, with the 850 mb freezing line swinging through NE Texas with maybe a touch of precip behind it, but AccuWx PPV numbers from GFS show temps into the mid and upper 40s when that happens.

The GFS does show some rain early/mid next week, and with temps in the 70s, maybe it'll be convective. (Although 700 mb winds/humidities suggest capping might be an issue)

[srainhoutx]

Yep, same song and dance of last year. CAP. We need some rain badly. Hopefully we'll see some moisture in the upcoming period. A lot of activity to our SW showing up in guidance. We shall see.

[Portastorm]

JB in his video blog today says he likes the chances of snow in Amarillo and Dallas before the month is over. The pattern switch is coming folks and not just because JB says so. The GFS and Euro show it and have consistently shown it for days.

Oh well, this last half of February is going to be our last chance so it might as well be a good one!

[southerngale]

JB in his video blog today says he likes the chances of snow in Amarillo and Dallas before the month is over. The pattern switch is coming folks and not just because JB says so. The GFS and Euro show it and have consistently shown it for days.

Oh well, this last half of February is going to be our last chance so it might as well be a good one!

Didn't we hear something similar about a month ago, though? I know it's been cold... on and off, though. A lot of freezes here (from memory... seems like a lot more than last year), but *most* days warmed up a good bit after those freezes. And if that pattern change came for us, nothing significant came from it. Just cold and dry with that cold. Not to be a party pooper, but just wondering what is different this time around. I LOVED the incredible snow event in December, but since then, it's just cold. If there's a real chance of more frozen fun, then I'll keep up the snow dances, but if not, I'm ready for the warm sun, shorts, and flip-flops.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Only vaguely related to winter weather, SPC Day 3 outlook (Sunday) has a Slight Risk for Sunday, and I am issuing a completely amateur and unofficial looks interesting advisory for North Central Texas the day before the potential big Ohio Valley to Deep South Outbreak on Wednesday.

good instability for this time of year in North Central Texas.



Same GFS seems to suggest about a foot of snow to cancel school in Dallas for days the beginning of the week after Valentine's Day, which would be wonderful, but somehow I doubt it.

[jinftl]

The long-term pattern shift that is coming is spring...before long the above normal temps texas has been experiencing more often than not as of late will just become 'normal'. That said, winter/spring transitioning type storms can bring a spectacular range of variety depending if you are in the cold or warm sector of the storm. So a quick snow or ice event is not impossible in northern areas of the southern plains and south-central...but a prolonged period of arctic airmass conditions is pretty close to being done for the year in the sunbelt. Any cold will be short-lived.

JB in his video blog today says he likes the chances of snow in Amarillo and Dallas before the month is over. The pattern switch is coming folks and not just because JB says so. The GFS and Euro show it and have consistently shown it for days.

Oh well, this last half of February is going to be our last chance so it might as well be a good one!

[cheezyWXguy]

The long-term pattern shift that is coming is spring...before long the above normal temps texas has been experiencing more often than not as of late will just become 'normal'. That said, winter/spring transitioning type storms can bring a spectacular range of variety depending if you are in the cold or warm sector of the storm. So a quick snow or ice event is not impossible in northern areas of the southern plains and south-central...but a prolonged period of arctic airmass conditions is pretty close to being done for the year in the sunbelt. Any cold will be short-lived.

JB in his video blog today says he likes the chances of snow in Amarillo and Dallas before the month is over. The pattern switch is coming folks and not just because JB says so. The GFS and Euro show it and have consistently shown it for days.

Oh well, this last half of February is going to be our last chance so it might as well be a good one!

well, theres march too, I remember that last year in march (right?), dallas got 2 snow events in the same week. Its not so far-fetched to have a snow event in texas this late.

[Portastorm]

The long-term pattern shift that is coming is spring...before long the above normal temps texas has been experiencing more often than not as of late will just become 'normal'. That said, winter/spring transitioning type storms can bring a spectacular range of variety depending if you are in the cold or warm sector of the storm. So a quick snow or ice event is not impossible in northern areas of the southern plains and south-central...but a prolonged period of arctic airmass conditions is pretty close to being done for the year in the sunbelt. Any cold will be short-lived.

JB in his video blog today says he likes the chances of snow in Amarillo and Dallas before the month is over. The pattern switch is coming folks and not just because JB says so. The GFS and Euro show it and have consistently shown it for days.

Oh well, this last half of February is going to be our last chance so it might as well be a good one!

I think I have had enough ... I'm at a loss to understand why you apparently feel the need to continually enter this thread and bust my chops? Since December, the only time you seem to post is when I (or someone else) post about the possibility of winter weather impacting Texas. Your posts can usually be summarized as "sorry, you're wrong, you will have no winter events." OK, that's fine. If you want to debate whether or not there is a pattern change coming, then what is your evidence? I supported my post with model run evidence and comments from a well-known national meteorologist. Today (Sunday), the GFS and European show that Texas MAY NOT experience much in terms of winter weather the latter half of the month and I can readily admit. Yesterday, however, they did. So again, I am relying on data. How about you?

Furthermore, I never posted that we would see a "prolonged period of arctic airmass." I said PATTERN CHANGE. And indeed, the southern jet is getting more active and we are now seeing a pattern change. I also indicated that the window for winter weather was rapidly closing but that we did have a few weeks in play. I'm well aware of the seasonal reality.

Debate is healthy and welcomed. I don't always agree with Ed Mahmoud, for example, but he always supports his posts with data/model runs/evidence. And, accordingly, I'll admit when I was wrong and move along. I've actually learned a lot from Ed and enjoy his posts. Again ... healthy debate.

I would ask jinftl that you would do the same for the edification of all of us. Why is the modeling wrong? Why is JB wrong? Why are the very talented professional meteorologists on the Eastern board wrong? They've all indicated a pattern switch and change to stormier and colder for most of the US for the last half of February into March. Support your assertion please.