BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Is North Texas out of the woods for the remaining time frame of winter regarding snow/cold temps?
Historically no.
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BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Is North Texas out of the woods for the remaining time frame of winter regarding snow/cold temps?
Shoshana wrote:BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Is North Texas out of the woods for the remaining time frame of winter regarding snow/cold temps?
Historically no.
TheAustinMan wrote:A little recap I made of the cold snap. There was a lot to keep track of, so let me know if something's off. Probably a few things will change as more information comes to light. You can find the full-resolution version on this link.
Minimum temperatures during the period are based on the NCEP Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis, which has been pretty accurate but might be off by a few degrees for some localities. The snow contours I've drawn are based very roughly on a lot of things... the NOAA National Snowfall Analysis, the maps from WFOs, LSRs, station reports... turns out it's very hard to make a snow accumulation map when a bunch of reports give conflicting estimates within miles of each other. Oh well. Hope the general idea is there.
Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from a bunch of different sources.
https://i.imgur.com/5RLlvOy.jpg
Here's the minimum temperature map again with the familiar Tropical Tidbits temperature color scheme and a few contours penned in:
Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from RTMA. RTMA raw gridded data is available at this FTP link, though recent hourly data is offered in a more digestible form at Pivotal Weather if you're ever looking for a quick snapshot of the state of the weather.
https://i.imgur.com/65UI2Rc.png
Still no water here in Austin. Hoping that changes this weekend as the thaw appears to have taken care of most of snow and icepack from the week. Aside from a few local areas in the Panhandle and Northeastern Texas, the HRRR shows most of Texas remaining above freezing tonight.
TheAustinMan wrote:A little recap I made of the cold snap. There was a lot to keep track of, so let me know if something's off. Probably a few things will change as more information comes to light. You can find the full-resolution version on this link.
Minimum temperatures during the period are based on the NCEP Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis, which has been pretty accurate but might be off by a few degrees for some localities. The snow contours I've drawn are based very roughly on a lot of things... the NOAA National Snowfall Analysis, the maps from WFOs, LSRs, station reports... turns out it's very hard to make a snow accumulation map when a bunch of reports give conflicting estimates within miles of each other. Oh well. Hope the general idea is there.
Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from a bunch of different sources.
https://i.imgur.com/5RLlvOy.jpg
Here's the minimum temperature map again with the familiar Tropical Tidbits temperature color scheme and a few contours penned in:
Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from RTMA. RTMA raw gridded data is available at this FTP link, though recent hourly data is offered in a more digestible form at Pivotal Weather if you're ever looking for a quick snapshot of the state of the weather.
https://i.imgur.com/65UI2Rc.png
Still no water here in Austin. Hoping that changes this weekend as the thaw appears to have taken care of most of snow and icepack from the week. Aside from a few local areas in the Panhandle and Northeastern Texas, the HRRR shows most of Texas remaining above freezing tonight.
TheAustinMan wrote:A little recap I made of the cold snap. There was a lot to keep track of, so let me know if something's off. Probably a few things will change as more information comes to light. You can find the full-resolution version on this link.
Minimum temperatures during the period are based on the NCEP Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis, which has been pretty accurate but might be off by a few degrees for some localities. The snow contours I've drawn are based very roughly on a lot of things... the NOAA National Snowfall Analysis, the maps from WFOs, LSRs, station reports... turns out it's very hard to make a snow accumulation map when a bunch of reports give conflicting estimates within miles of each other. Oh well. Hope the general idea is there.
Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from a bunch of different sources.
https://i.imgur.com/5RLlvOy.jpg
Here's the minimum temperature map again with the familiar Tropical Tidbits temperature color scheme and a few contours penned in:
Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from RTMA. RTMA raw gridded data is available at this FTP link, though recent hourly data is offered in a more digestible form at Pivotal Weather if you're ever looking for a quick snapshot of the state of the weather.
https://i.imgur.com/65UI2Rc.png
Still no water here in Austin. Hoping that changes this weekend as the thaw appears to have taken care of most of snow and icepack from the week. Aside from a few local areas in the Panhandle and Northeastern Texas, the HRRR shows most of Texas remaining above freezing tonight.
Shoshana wrote:BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Is North Texas out of the woods for the remaining time frame of winter regarding snow/cold temps?
Historically no.
cheezyWXguy wrote:Cerlin wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Direct Weather has posted the offical forecast for Storm Season 2021, it's looking very scary.
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-20-at-3.48.59-PM.png
(Confidence level is higher, around 80% now)
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1oQWu1Jpzc
Just as a disclaimer, DirectWeather isn’t very trustworthy in the weather community. They do a LOT of things for clicks and have a lot of bombastic thumbnails (calling a 1 inch snowstorm a major, damaging storm) and, at least on weather twitter, always gets a lot of just criticism for being way too reactionary and alarmist. Doesn’t mean that the severe weather season won’t be severe but I’d avoid posting them on here because they’re not really trustworthy.
I agree, I watched some of his videos during last year’s severe season and was disappointed when on several occasions he would just do a jazzed up version of the SPC’s convective outlook and call it his own prediction
Haris wrote:Yall its the ICON!!! No question. Nailed the forecast here EVERYDAY. Only model that showed Austin below freezing straight beg. Thu AM
Brandon8181 wrote:Good morning,
Is there a link here for for Spring weather discussion, tornadoes, severe spring weather, storm spotting equipment, etc?
Thank you so much.
cheezyWXguy wrote:Brandon8181 wrote:Good morning,
Is there a link here for for Spring weather discussion, tornadoes, severe spring weather, storm spotting equipment, etc?
Thank you so much.
I know there’s a general severe weather thread for the upcoming season in the USA weather section, but I don’t see much on in-depth storm spotting/chasing.
A few resources I’ve found over time:
https://www.reddit.com/r/stormchasing/
(The stickied posts/sidebar are good)
https://youtu.be/bq0-QXXtOro
https://youtu.be/WL7jc4-03Uc
https://youtu.be/IUIhoR0HRGM
Disclaimer: none of these are official sources. As a prerequisite to any chasing/spotting, sign up for a spotter training seminar. They’re free and can be found on your local nws forecasting office website. Dfw link here:
[url] https://www.weather.gov/fwd/skywarnmap[url/]
cheezyWXguy wrote:Looks like the 6z GFS is trying to make the March 1 system a winter weather threat for ntx and ok, while the 0z looked more like a severe weather threat. Looks like it will be interesting either way
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