Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

Going through various sites in Texas, the epicenter of winter this season has to be Abilene. 23" of snow and got down to -4. Some -14F below normal for the month.

4 major snow storms (October was snow/ice). They nearly broke the seasonal record in just one storm alone last Sunday.

[bubba hotep]

Snow pack still holding strong in the shade IMBY

[dhweather]

Who is your king now?

The GFS did an extraordinary (and quite consistent) job with this past week.

[gpsnowman]

Almost a 10 degree temp bust on the up side today. Mid 40's turned into mid 50's. No complaints here, it feels nice and warm.
Still some dirty snow drifts around town and shady snow pack in yards like Bubba's. Amazing duration for over a week with frozen stuff starting with the freezing rain to sleet then snow. Incredible. Can't wait to see the final write up for this outbreak. It will be similar to what we read about 1899, 1983.

[Iceresistance]

Almost a 10 degree temp bust on the up side today. Mid 40's turned into mid 50's. No complaints here, it feels nice and warm.

Me too, the high was expected to be 39°F, got up to 45°F

[Ntxw]

Who is your king now?

The GFS did an extraordinary (and quite consistent) job with this past week.

Nailed it a week+ out.

But even it was a tad too warm.

[Iceresistance]

Who is your king now?

The GFS did an extraordinary (and quite consistent) job with this past week.

Nailed it a week out.

And not just that, it was hinting it 2 weeks before the event happened . . .

[Ntxw]

Who is your king now?

The GFS did an extraordinary (and quite consistent) job with this past week.

Nailed it a week out.

And not just that, it was hinting it 2 weeks before the event happened . . .

GEFS (ensemble mean) 300+ hours out was golden.

Coldest 10-14 forecast I've seen on the GEFS all season....really active battle ground setting up as well!! A lot more freezing rain/sleet indicators showing up on several members as well, suggesting the potential for shallow cold/arctic air becoming more established. As opposed to the "top down" cooling that's been occurring most of this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021012612/gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_10.png

Greenland Block is a big factor for this, and it's looking like it's ready to spill into the CONUS.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The picture in the article below has gone viral nationwide. Jimmy Kimmel mentioned it in his monologue the other night. It is now a feature article in the NY Post. The picture and associated video was taken by The Weather Channel videographer this past week. It is a picture-video of Stateline Avenue in Texarkana. The Arkansas side of Stateline Avenue had been plowed, but the Texas side had not. The picture-video is causing a lot of backlash for the Texas DOT:

https://nypost.com/2021/02/18/arkansas- ... d-in-snow/

Why should TxDot be getting backlash? Could the reason Arkansas had those assets is because they were closer to Texarkana? The Ozarks and most of northern Arkansas get a lot more snow on average vs Texarkana. Most of TxDots snow removal equipment in Texas is in the Panhandle and West Texas for obvious reasons. Heaven help the enlighten in Hollywood and Southern California if they ever get the winter storm of the century in their parts. I might send them some rock salt.

[Iceresistance]

Direct Weather has posted the offical forecast for Storm Season 2021, it's looking very scary.



(Confidence level is higher, around 80% now)

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1oQWu1Jpzc

[Iceresistance]

GEFS (ensemble mean) 300+ hours out was golden.

Coldest 10-14 forecast I've seen on the GEFS all season....really active battle ground setting up as well!! A lot more freezing rain/sleet indicators showing up on several members as well, suggesting the potential for shallow cold/arctic air becoming more established. As opposed to the "top down" cooling that's been occurring most of this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021012612/gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_10.png

Greenland Block is a big factor for this, and it's looking like it's ready to spill into the CONUS.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

That post was a Month ago! I can't believe how accurate the GFS & GEFS was considering it being at 384 hours out! Basically every single run was featuring this since it started to show 16 days out! (What are the ODDS FOR THIS!? )

[bubba hotep]

Who is your king now?

The GFS did an extraordinary (and quite consistent) job with this past week.

A few days ago I went back and looked at some old runs of the Euro vs GFS and the Euro probably ended up handling the h5 pattern better overall. I would like to see the skill analysis from that time period to confirm. The GFS was colder but it was too progressive with the TPV. The TPV ended up hanging out over Southern Canada longer, like the Euro was showing. Ultimately, it just goes to show that once you get that kind of cold bottled up in Canada that it is eventually coming south. Ralph nailed that call. He never waivered from "the cold will come south" regardless of what various models showed.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Hz data showing unstable Texas grid. Texas almost lost it all. Texas should have a one of the best grids with all its resources from fossil fuels and renewables. This is more like a grid behaves in a third world country. We don't deserve fun winter weather if we can't handle it. People being found frozen to death? WTH

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1363150611554967553

I don't know what the root cause might be but it probably had something to do with the people in control believing that this type of cold snap was a thing of the past. Hopefully, changes are made quickly, just incase the low solar people are right about us heading into a period of more extreme cold events.

Think about the generational change of those in charge whom have never been through events of severe times extreme cold or were too young to remember it. We used to have at least one or two decent cold waves every few years that would remind Texans that we do have cold weather. Then we’d have the more historical ones which challenge or shatter records like this now ended event . The last two decades save for a few years, we’ve been void of such events. It’s the same trap we kind of fell in with hurricanes in the Corpus area until Harvey hit right to our north. The immediate area hadn’t been hit by a storm of such magnitude that requires national guard and other government assists since 1970! Now we’ve had threats and close calls such as Allen in 1980 and a couple of others, but they didn’t do a lot of damage and folks would just roll their eyes when we were under the gun. Harvey woke up some of older folks and gave the younger ones an education.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Who is your king now?

The GFS did an extraordinary (and quite consistent) job with this past week.

Don’t forget the Crazy Canadian.

[somethingfunny]

So, should we feel differently about the ICON now? How did it end up performing?

[gpsnowman]

So, should we feel differently about the ICON now? How did it end up performing?

Every model except the Euro in this time frame latched on and never waivered. Euro caught up eventually but was beaten hands down by other models with the most influential winter outbreak in the last 40 years. At least in Texas.

[Haris]

Yall its the ICON!!! No question. Nailed the forecast here EVERYDAY. Only model that showed Austin below freezing straight beg. Thu AM

[Cerlin]

Direct Weather has posted the offical forecast for Storm Season 2021, it's looking very scary.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-20-at-3.48.59-PM.png

(Confidence level is higher, around 80% now)

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1oQWu1Jpzc

Just as a disclaimer, DirectWeather isn’t very trustworthy in the weather community. They do a LOT of things for clicks and have a lot of bombastic thumbnails (calling a 1 inch snowstorm a major, damaging storm) and, at least on weather twitter, always gets a lot of just criticism for being way too reactionary and alarmist. Doesn’t mean that the severe weather season won’t be severe but I’d avoid posting them on here because they’re not really trustworthy.

[cheezyWXguy]

Direct Weather has posted the offical forecast for Storm Season 2021, it's looking very scary.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-20-at-3.48.59-PM.png

(Confidence level is higher, around 80% now)

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1oQWu1Jpzc

Just as a disclaimer, DirectWeather isn’t very trustworthy in the weather community. They do a LOT of things for clicks and have a lot of bombastic thumbnails (calling a 1 inch snowstorm a major, damaging storm) and, at least on weather twitter, always gets a lot of just criticism for being way too reactionary and alarmist. Doesn’t mean that the severe weather season won’t be severe but I’d avoid posting them on here because they’re not really trustworthy.

I agree, I watched some of his videos during last year’s severe season and was disappointed when on several occasions he would just do a jazzed up version of the SPC’s convective outlook and call it his own prediction

[BTAYLOR5021]

Is North Texas out of the woods for the remaining time frame of winter regarding snow/cold temps?