Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Weatherdude20]

Happy Valentines day everyone, have a great, and possibily snowy one !

[iorange55]

GFS is not looking good for later in the week.

[Ntxw]

GFS is not looking good for later in the week.

It still looks quite odd compared to the other global models. Rather does have very cold air (notice the -30 isotherms) except keeps trying to hold it back in the central plains. Given climatology of these air masses, I doubt that would happen. Could this be a classic arctic attack where there's a lot of shallow dense, cold air and the GFS is having troubles? We'll see.

[Weatherdude20]

GFS is not looking good for later in the week.

It still looks quite odd compared to the other global models. Rather does have very cold air (notice the -30 isotherms) except keeps trying to hold it back in the central plains. Given climatology of these air masses, I doubt that would happen. Could this be a classic arctic attack where there's a lot of shallow dense, cold air and the GFS is having troubles? We'll see.

Yeah, the whole Thursday(ish) through Monday time frame looks like an intresting pattern to say the least.Not to say we will get winter wx on thursday, just saying, Thursday's event looks like a close call at this point, and Sunday looks alot better in terms of Probability of Wintry Weather for the North Texas Region. This whole system needs to be watch closely as overall trends look like the ladder part of the season will be as active if not more aggresive than the early part of the season. Like Ntx ix alluding to an Arctic outbreak is possible in the next few weeks and looks to have some serious impacts!

[somethingfunny]

Thursday's event looks like a close call at this point, and Sunday looks alot better in terms of Probability of Wintry Weather for the North Texas Region. This whole system needs to be watch closely as overall trends look like the ladder part of the season will be as active if not more aggresive than the early part of the season. Like Ntx ix alluding to an Arctic outbreak is possible in the next few weeks and looks to have some serious impacts!

Are you sure this isn't a repost from last week? Everybody seemed to be thinking that Sunday (tomorrow)'s event looked more likely than the marginal rain/snow on Thursday, at this time last week.

[txagwxman]

More light snow today Dallas...lucky dogs...this is driving me insane...GFS the wettest of all models today across N. TX.

Jackson, MS will probably get 2" this evening.


I am still leaning with the ECMWF in the back. When in doubt go Euro.

[Portastorm]

More light snow today Dallas...lucky dogs...this is driving me insane...GFS the wettest of all models today across N. TX.


I am still leaning with the ECMWF in the back. When in doubt go Euro.

So is HPC this morning based on their preliminary discussion. Is it me though or has the Euro backed off a bit on the timing of next weekend's front? How do the Euro ensembles look, txagwxman?

[txagwxman]

More light snow today Dallas...lucky dogs...this is driving me insane...GFS the wettest of all models today across N. TX.


I am still leaning with the ECMWF in the back. When in doubt go Euro.

So is HPC this morning based on their preliminary discussion. Is it me though or has the Euro backed off a bit on the timing of next weekend's front? How do the Euro ensembles look, txagwxman?

Lot of members leaning with the Ecmwf.

[txagwxman]

TEMPS COULD DROP ENOUGH AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING COULD SEE A MIX
OF -SN AT KUTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 02/03Z AND GO VFR OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS.

UTS = Huntsville.

[Portastorm]

TEMPS COULD DROP ENOUGH AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING COULD SEE A MIX
OF -SN AT KUTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 02/03Z AND GO VFR OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS.

UTS = Huntsville.

Hey, that's only about ... what ... 50-60 miles north of you?! Possible excitement ahead!

[Tireman4]

TEMPS COULD DROP ENOUGH AND WITH FRONTAL FORCING COULD SEE A MIX
OF -SN AT KUTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 02/03Z AND GO VFR OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS.

UTS = Huntsville.

Hey, that's only about ... what ... 50-60 miles north of you?! Possible excitement ahead!

Yep..that is 48 miles north of me....

[srainhoutx]

NAM suggests we will not get above freezing until at least Wednesday in SE TX after the front moves through this evening.

[wxman22]

So is the Euro still showing a winter storm late this week?

[Portastorm]

You're talking 850mb temps not above freezing, not surface, right?

[srainhoutx]

Yep Portastorm. Even that is a change. Remember the NAM also has a bit of a warm bias as well.

[Portastorm]

Not the most comfortable morning to head out to church in Dalhart ... at 8 am, they're reporting 31 degrees, wind chill of 16 with light snow and north winds 30 mph gusting to 38 mph!

[txagwxman]

So is the Euro still showing a winter storm late this week?

ECMWF leaning next Sunday N. TX...

[srainhoutx]

So is the Euro still showing a winter storm late this week?

ECMWF leaning next Sunday N. TX...

The bowling ball of an H5 Vort is showing up well at hour 84 on the NAM in the Pacific NW ready to start it's plunge SSE. We shall see, but I suspect that things will be lively again this week after our clipper and Canadian boundry today.

[Kelarie]

Just looked at the radar, and the pinks were already showing up northwest of DFW. This should be interesting if we actually see more of the frozen precip stuff today. I really wouldn't know what to do with myself. Oh well, today was the one day I wasn't going to do hardcore weather watching. We shall see how long that lasts.

[southerngale]

So is the Euro still showing a winter storm late this week?

ECMWF leaning next Sunday N. TX...

Lean south, young European!