Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

So is this gonna be more powder or a wet snow

It's kind of fun when were talking about the type of snow

Should be a wet snow with bigger flakes compared to 2/14. But it's still really cold vs the usual giant 31-34 snowflakes.

[Quixotic]

So is this gonna be more powder or a wet snow

It's kind of fun when were talking about the type of snow

19 degrees means powder.

[Quixotic]

So is this gonna be more powder or a wet snow

It's kind of fun when were talking about the type of snow

Should be a wet snow with bigger flakes. But it's still really cold vs the usual giant 31-34 snowflakes.

You think? Was kinda going by ground temps but if there’s any kind of inversion then maybe you’re right.

[bubba hotep]

18z 3k NAM is off its rocker with those low totals, has to be being affected by the lack of radar data

A pretty drastic change from earlier runs. I would stick with the more consistent HRRR & SREF which would put DFW b/w 0.4 - 0.6 qpf.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

Areas affected...Oklahoma and much of north Texas

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 162115Z - 170115Z

SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to locally heavy snow will continue to
expand northeastward across the discussion area from western north
Texas this afternoon and evening. Rates of 1 inch per hour are
possible in heavier bands.

DISCUSSION...Lift associated with an ejecting mid-level wave over
New Mexico and an ejecting speed max across west-central Texas has
contributed to an expanding area of precipitation across the Texas
South Plains and western North Texas currently. Moderate to heavy
snow has been observed at Lubbock, Childress, and Hardeman County
over the past hour or so beneath heavier precipitation bands. The
precipitation was falling within nearly saturated mid-level
thermodynamic profiles observed via model soundings, and the
expectation is that low-level moistening will continue as
precipitation continues to expand in coverage. A warm layer
(approaching 0 deg C) was noted in profiles across portions of
western north Texas, which may foster occasional mixing with sleet
and even convective development especially on the southern extent of
the discussion area.

Over time, models support a general expansion of the precipitation
shield across much of the discussion area with potential for a
couple of areas of heavier precipitation - one across
north-central/central Oklahoma (near the US 412 corridor) and 2)
across southern Oklahoma, where isentropic lift (from convergent
850hPa flow) will contribute to heavier precipitation near the Red
River. Along the Red River, this increase in precipitation
intensity is expected to occur gradually through at least 02Z.

..Cook.. 02/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

[bubba hotep]

So is this gonna be more powder or a wet snow

It's kind of fun when were talking about the type of snow

Should be a wet snow with bigger flakes. But it's still really cold vs the usual giant 31-34 snowflakes.

You think? Was kinda going by ground temps but if there’s any kind of inversion then maybe you’re right.

Too bad FWD didn't do a special balloon launch this afternoon, so it will be a few hours before we get a chance to see how the column has modified today.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Lots of factors but one big one — a lot more people live in Texas now than 40 years ago.

This right here CAN'T be overlooked....

I bet a vast majority of the new homes built in this state in the last 20 years have been outfitted with all electric appliances when it comes to the biggest energy users in a typical house hold with this being the furnace, water heater and oven/range top. The house we built in 2005 and currently live in fits this category. And I know from window shopping with my wife in some of the cookie cutter developments up in the San Antonio/Austin area in the last year which are built by national and regional homebuilders, most of the appliances are electric in these new homes too. And these are the subdivisions who are attracting the new move ins to our state because they are readily available on short notice. It's much less expensive for the assembly line home builders to go this route vs having the infrastructure installed for NG. Most cities and counties should go back to incentivizing builders and prospective buyers to equip their homes with NG like they used to not so long ago. I recall I used to get flyers in my water bill from the city gas department for rebates off the purchase of a gas stove or even dryer among other components. New developments should have NG lines installed along the same right a- ways as the water, cable, etc. and not to defer on these to avoid costs.

We are going to have a custom home built somewhere up there in four years and all my major energy consuming appliances will be NG and I will have a generator installed powered by NG as well. Although we've been lucky to avoid losing our power this time.... lesson learned and let's hope a record cold snap like this one avoids for a very long time.

[ZeroGee]

I am a great mind. Thank you.

In our house we were prepared for this epic winter wonderland mainly because of the great minds here that are kind enough to share their knowledge. I feel horrible for those without power that are struggling to stay warm while we are playing and having a great time.

[Ntxw]

So is this gonna be more powder or a wet snow

It's kind of fun when were talking about the type of snow

Should be a wet snow with bigger flakes. But it's still really cold vs the usual giant 31-34 snowflakes.

You think? Was kinda going by ground temps but if there’s any kind of inversion then maybe you’re right.

I just assumed with smaller DGZ might be messier flakes. But it's been so cold who knows.

[bubba hotep]

Who submitted the mPING for snow just west of Ft. Worth? That would be well ahead of schedule.

[Ntxw]

HRRR is starting snow as far south as Waco.

[Iceresistance]

Who submitted the mPING for snow just west of Ft. Worth? That would be well ahead of schedule.

Radar is picking up heavier snow in Denton

[Quixotic]

Should be a wet snow with bigger flakes. But it's still really cold vs the usual giant 31-34 snowflakes.

You think? Was kinda going by ground temps but if there’s any kind of inversion then maybe you’re right.

Too bad FWD didn't do a special balloon launch this afternoon, so it will be a few hours before we get a chance to see how the column has modified today.

Definitely would help. Models have a tendency to hurry and modify these air masses too quickly. I think it’ll be all snow and probably higher than 1:10 ratios. The sleet that keeps popping up in area discussions and point forecasts leads me to believe that the models are struggling with skew Ts.

[Quixotic]

Should be a wet snow with bigger flakes. But it's still really cold vs the usual giant 31-34 snowflakes.

You think? Was kinda going by ground temps but if there’s any kind of inversion then maybe you’re right.

I just assumed with smaller DGZ might be messier flakes. But it's been so cold who knows.

I’ll defer to you. You nailed the last storm and talked me off the ledge.

[gpsnowman]

Hope to see some daylight snow flurries in the next hour or so. This will be mostly an overnighter so sleep may be difficult.

[high_lander]

Snowing here. Blessed to have electricity and water.

Oh and chili with cornbread.

[gpsnowman]

Well I'll be damned. Very light snow falling in Irving.

[BigD938]

So is this gonna be more powder or a wet snow

It's kind of fun when were talking about the type of snow

Should be a wet snow with bigger flakes compared to 2/14. But it's still really cold vs the usual giant 31-34 snowflakes.

I drove back from Houston a few weekends back in that snow storm. Had flakes the size of dinner plates you could hear them smacking the windshield. Have never seen them that big before.

[Iceresistance]

So is this gonna be more powder or a wet snow

It's kind of fun when were talking about the type of snow

Should be a wet snow with bigger flakes compared to 2/14. But it's still really cold vs the usual giant 31-34 snowflakes.

I drove back from Houston a few weekends back in that snow storm. Had flakes the size of dinner plates you could hear them smacking the windshield. Have never seen them that big before.

I once had some as big as Golf Balls!

[somethingfunny]

First round looks like it's going to miss us in Dallas but another batch aimed at us is coming into view on radar now. Abilene has some reports of sleet mixed with the snow.

Why are three NEXRAD sites out of commission...? Between that and the lack of special balloon launches it feels like we're flying a bit blind with today's system.