Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

I think my weather depression has kicked in after reading that

[Iceresistance]

I think my weather depression has kicked in after reading that

57 has a warm bias in our defense

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance haha and i definitely have a cold bias, might he the unofficial cold miser in this group unless we already have someone with that title lol

[rwfromkansas]

Gary Lezak of the recurring cycle idea seems to be a little depressing, emphasizing the lack of snow over CO, limited deep cold intrusions so far. But, he does indicate that there is a pattern that will produce eventually.

[wxman57]

I think my weather depression has kicked in after reading that

57 has a warm bias in our defense

Warm bias? That's absolutely false. I can occasionally tolerate a temperature below 85F. Below 80, though, that's freezing!

[Cpv17]

I think my weather depression has kicked in after reading that

57 has a warm bias in our defense

Warm bias? That's absolutely false. I can occasionally tolerate a temperature below 85F. Below 80, though, that's freezing!

Curious what you keep the tstat on in the house lol

[HockeyTx82]

57 has a warm bias in our defense

Warm bias? That's absolutely false. I can occasionally tolerate a temperature below 85F. Below 80, though, that's freezing!

Curious what you keep the tstat on in the house lol

Heat mode.

[Stratton23]

it appears the global models are trending toward a - EPO/NAO and possibly a neutral AO look around christmas week, im grasping at straws here, but thats what i see at this time

[Golfisnoteasy75]

it appears the global models are trending toward a - EPO/NAO and possibly a neutral AO look around christmas week, im grasping at straws here, but thats what i see at this time

Stratton, focus on the ensembles and if and when you see those change, then you will be more sure a change is coming

[Wthrfan]

Looks like the worst kind of winter weather for my tastes…warm and dry. We did have below average temps for the first nine days of December but probably only one more below average day between now and Christmas. I feel your pain Stratton!

[Wthrfan]

Looks like the worst kind of winter weather for my tastes…warm and dry. We did have below average temps for the first nine days of December but probably only one more below average day between now and Christmas. I feel your pain Stratton!

[wxman22]

If it makes anyone feel better at least we wont be "burning up" alone. Misery Loves Company. LOL

[starsfan65]

If it makes anyone feel better at least we wont be "burning up" alone. Misery Loves Company. LOL
I
https://iili.io/f5qoVku.gif

I don't buy it at all.

[Brent]

If it makes anyone feel better at least we wont be "burning up" alone. Misery Loves Company. LOL
I
https://iili.io/f5qoVku.gif

I don't buy it at all.

It's definitely looking very warm for the weekend before Christmas clearly (Friday the 19th through Sunday the 21st) Whether it lasts til Christmas is the question

Unfortunately that's just the pattern warm air is going to dominate. The small hope is we get a front to come through right before Christmas

[Stratton23]

GEFS did trend to a neutral AO a couple days before christmas, EPO still positive, but even that has trended down closer to the neutral line, still got a long ways to go, but the teleconnection trends today in ensembles have been encouraging, we can work with a neutral AO/EPO especially with the WPO staying well negative

[Ntxw]

One lessoned learned here for me is yet again though, P8 didn't do much for us, it did in the end shove a lot of it eastward. More to the story but another piece that goes into the book.

For us in December it is the IO phases that deliver it seems in this month. 1983, 1989, 2013, 2022 (cold enso) etc were at the bottom of the diagram.

[Brent]

The apps(I know I hate them too but I'm grasping at straws ) so far at least up here peak the warmth next weekend and then down near average for Christmas(50s for highs)

I would consider that a win with what is showing up

The bigger issue is again how dry it is. Entirely possible it's dry for the next 2 weeks!

[bubba hotep]

Good grief

[Stratton23]

I dont see any indication of us going into P1 even in january, we might have to rely on the teleconnections to drive the pattern because from what im seeing from models in terms of MJO forecasting is nothing short of putrid, stall in phase 8/ null phase for the next 45 days

[Stratton23]

But more interesting news is im seeing that the GFS maybe getting an AI version or the AI- GFS becomes available december 17th, thats going to be very interesting to see how it does along side the euro AIFS