SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[Jagno]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
322 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
062130-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
322 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY MORNING...
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE PINEY HILLS OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FREEZING RAIN-SLEET MIXTURE IS POSSIBLE
...MAINLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 9 AM AND NOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH. HAZARDOUS MOTORING...ESPECIALLY WHEN
TRAVELING ACROSS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...CAN BE EXPECTED.

[HurriGuy]

Looks like the GFS wants to throw just a slight, slight chance of winter precip along some the SW Mississippi counties and maybe some parishes in central LA. I would not expect much of anything.

It does look like the simulated radars want to bring back the rain that was once forecasted earlier this week. 30% is what is forecasted for most of central and south LA, but judging by the RPM and HRRR, that might need to go up for the morning and noon hours.

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner:

Winter Weather Advisory issued along and NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston from 200am to 1000am Thursday.

Note: The Advisory includes Waller and Montgomery Counties but does not include Harris County.

Strong upper level short wave over northern MX is quickly approaching the region late this evening. It appears models have to a degree under-estimated the incoming lift per satellite trends this evening along with the degree of moisture. Moisture is surging northward out of the NW Gulf into a very cold and dry air mass over the region. 1000pm temperatures range from 31 at College Station to 35 at Conroe and 39 at IAH with dewpoints in the low to mid 20’s across the entire region. Return moisture is clearly noted in IR images advancing to I-10 currently and moving northward. Temperatures north of the advancing cloud line will continue to cool, while south of this line temperatures may only fall another 3-4 degrees overnight.

Short term meso scale models show sounding profiles becoming increasingly colder through the night and are near or below freezing from the surface upward in the advisory area. P-type of any precipitation would likely be in the form of sleet or snow flurries. With temperatures falling to and below freezing in the advisory area some light accumulation of frozen/freezing precipitation is possible in the 500am to 1000am time frame. Concern at the moment is sleet/snow flurries impacting the still warm ground and melting only to possibly refreeze as a thin layer of ice on bridges and overpasses. Precipitation is expected to be very light, but it only takes a very thin layer of ice on bridges to make travel hazardous. Given the long duration of sub-freezing temperatures in the advisory area…road surfaces will have time to cool allowing a better potential for some minor ice accumulation on bridges and overpasses.

South of the advisory area including Harris County and metro Houston, looks like surface temperatures may be right at freezing for a couple of hours from Katy to Cypress to Kingwood but advancing cloud cover should soon stop the temperature fall. A light mixture of sleet, snow, and rain is possible for the southern half of the area Thursday morning, but surface temperatures appear too warm to support any accumulation at this time (33-35 degrees). Road temperatures are also warmer in this region and even if the surface temperature falls to freezing, the road temperatures should remain above freezing negating ice formation.

Note: Expect some fairly impressive radar returns by Thursday morning, but very dry sub-cloud layer is going to be evaporating much of what the radar is showing so do not be overly alarmed by potentially significant amounts or intensities of the radar returns. Only the strongest returns will likely produce precipitation that actually reaches the surface.

[PTrackerLA]

Just drove through a sleet shower on the way to work. 32 degrees with more precip moving in hmmm.

[southerngale]

It's snowing!

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

[vbhoutex]

It's snowing!

It figures I'm not in Houston when we get sleet and snow!!

[BigB0882]

Sleet in Baton Rouge. This is just bizarre. 3 times in 3 weeks.

[HurriGuy]

Yeah it is really much of nothing. The models never really had a system to latch on to, so no surprise the moisture is more plentiful then they thought.

[PTrackerLA]

Just had some light snow move through here, no rain mixed in at all. Ironic because its 33-34 degrees and we were getting freezing rain at 25 last week .

[Jagno]

Light sleet and snow in Lake Charles this morning. I've lived here 50+ years and never do I remember getting sleet/snow three times in three weeks.

[cigtyme]

This is weird, last week was crap for Houma, we've just had sleet.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we'll get one more burst of precip moving through and that should be about it. Baton Rouge looks to get into some decent looking radar returns shortly.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like we'll get one more burst of precip moving through and that should be about it. Baton Rouge looks to get into some decent looking radar returns shortly.

You would be correct. Reports starting to come in about snow flying around baton rouge. I'm interested in what that heavier band just east of new Iberia will bring.

[BigB0882]

Snow in Brusly! Just west of Baton Rouge! Real snow! Can't believe this. Very light and not sticking.

[windnrain]

It's actually snowing in BR

[BigB0882]

Now that the heavier band of precip is coming through it is all sleet. Go figure. Would have been cool to have a heavy burst of snow. At least we saw some snow though.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Never saw any snow here but we are under a moderate sleet shower. Already accumalting on roofs and cars. Just as heavy as last weeks but will last nowhere as long.

[windnrain]

This is really hilarious.

The temperature right now, according to weather.com's hourly, was supposed to be 40. It was 35 an hour ago. It's DROPPED to 34.

Why does this happen with these winter storms? Mets can't seem to get the high's right at all... hell, they can't even seem to get if it's going to increase or decrease right!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

But to give credit where credit is due, some did forecast this last week and we blew them off.

[HurriGuy]

The sleet/snow shower we had here at LSU was more impressive than any moment during the last 2 winter storms from a couple of weeks ago. I would dare say it caused visibility issues. It only lasted 10 minutes, but it blew my mind during the middle of the day when nothing was forecasted.