Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Brent]

Euro now has a legit system moving into the 7 day range but we still need it to eject out across Texas (current solution) and not cut sharply North coming out of Mexico.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019122112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_8.png

Will there be any cold air though

It doesn’t look like it.

Yeah I see zero support for anything frozen the earliest on the ensembles is into January

[funster]

The models should at least be teasing us this time of year.

[rwfromkansas]

It's last year all over again. I see no reason to be hopeful until we are within a week. I learned my lesson last year.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Extremely dense fog and temps in the mid 30s this evening. Happy Yule!

[TheProfessor]

Ended up getting a nice amount of rain from this system down here and it's still going. In just a few hours my family will be driving right back through it on our trip to DC as well.

[bubba hotep]

Actually, December hasn't been too bad up to this point but, unfortunately, we will see our biggest torch (vs normal) since early October over the next week. December will go out with a blow torch...



Will this be the last torch of the Winter? Based on our recent climo, probably not... I do remain optimistic that we see some colder weather but I can't help but wonder if the warming of the background state has all but killed extended winter outbreaks in the Southern Plains?

[bubba hotep]

Go GFS!



Then it loads up the mother load of cold air in our source region!

[gpsnowman]

The cold in Canada is right where it needs to be. Does it get the proper push south??? Million dollar question. Time will tell but at least we have some pretty maps to tease us like funster mentioned yesterday.

[gpsnowman]

The models should at least be teasing us this time of year.

Well, bubba hotep was listening!!!

[Brent]

Go GFS!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019122212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_60.png

Then it loads up the mother load of cold air in our source region!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019122212/gfs_T850a_namer_65.png

That storm now cuts way north on the 18z

And the entire Euro run is above normal that goes to NYE

[Yukon Cornelius]

26 this morning with freezing fog. I guess I’ve never seen true freezing fog before. This is definitely cool looking.

[bubba hotep]

26 this morning with freezing fog. I guess I’ve never seen true freezing fog before. This is definitely cool looking.

Pretty sure it was freezing fog down this way as well. Truck was covered in ice that clearly wasn't from frost.

[bubba hotep]

Decent spacing with these systems should allow for adequate moisture return resulting in a couple of decent Texas rain events. Cold air stays trapped up north...

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like much in the way of rain for SE TX the next couple of weeks. An active southern stream, but the storm systems are passing too far north. I see that the GFS does have some mid 30s temps dipping to near the DFW area on the 384hr panel. Of course, we can believe that.

[Ralph's Weather]

29 with good frost this morning.

[bubba hotep]

Frustrating trends in model land as it looks like we are going for the positive trifecta of +EPO/AO/NAO in the medium to longer range.

[South Texas Storms]

Doesn't look like much in the way of rain for SE TX the next couple of weeks. An active southern stream, but the storm systems are passing too far north. I see that the GFS does have some mid 30s temps dipping to near the DFW area on the 384hr panel. Of course, we can believe that.

That's just what the 6z GFS operational run shows. Euro and GFS Ensemble mean are both in the 1-2 inch range for much of Texas through the first few days of January. I think we transition to a wetter pattern shortly after Christmas.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like much in the way of rain for SE TX the next couple of weeks. An active southern stream, but the storm systems are passing too far north. I see that the GFS does have some mid 30s temps dipping to near the DFW area on the 384hr panel. Of course, we can believe that.

That's just what the 6z GFS operational run shows. Euro and GFS Ensemble mean are both in the 1-2 inch range for much of Texas through the first few days of January. I think we transition to a wetter pattern shortly after Christmas.

I'll believe it when my rain gauge sees it. Only about 1/2 inch of rain since the first week of November, spread out over 5-7 events. GFS has about 0.1" across SE TX the next two weeks, Euro is at about 1/2 inch, which may be generous.

[Cerlin]

Frustrating trends in model land as it looks like we are going for the positive trifecta of +EPO/AO/NAO in the medium to longer range.

Perfect for winter fun...

[bubba hotep]

Frustrating trends in model land as it looks like we are going for the positive trifecta of +EPO/AO/NAO in the medium to longer range.

Perfect for winter fun...

The TPV setting up shop near Alaska was an unlikely wildcard not too long ago. Now we have to hope that it gets dislodged in short order. The one positive is that it appears we will see chances of rain during this period as systems are forced under and into the SW. How they eject will play a role and SE TX into Louisiana will probably see less chances as noted by 57.

ETA: Aftet the Christmas torch this pattern keeps most of Texas seasonal with brief warmups before each system. The main issue is any really cold air stays locked up towards Alaska, so even a great looking H5 system will be rain...