2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[cheezyWXguy]

Ha, our "winter" has consisted of a few sub-freezing mornings and one night with a burst of sleet and snow.

That sounds like your winter has been satisfactory to me. We in North Texas know that it WILL snow every winter, but that every winter it will only snow ONCE.

That's why I get the feeling our TWO snowstorms in one week last March filled our 'snow quota' for 2008-2009. I know this is irrational and not based on a shred of meteorological evidence, but generally, we get one good "white event" per winter here.

yeh...YOU got the two snowstorms...us down in the metroplex got the remnants. During those 2 events i got about an inch on grass from the first, and about 2 inches from the next...neither cancelled school because neither even dropped below freezing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z GFS shows insignificant amounts of rain ( a couple of hundreds here, a couple of hundreds there), but no relief for most of Texas.


Dallas gets a couple of tenths early next week per GFS, but that isn't going to end any dry spells.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, this is how it looks in Austin right now:



OK, I'm exaggerating a little bit. But you get the idea.

[boca]

Portastorm it looks that way in Florida too. Our drought index is in the 500 to 700 range right now.In spring well be dealing with the fire season again and this one might be a bad one.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Grass Fire Burns Field, Blocks MLK Parade Traffic

[jasons2k]

We need "The Neeeeeenyo!!!"

[srainhoutx]

Dallas/Ft Worth now mentioning Freezing Rain for Tuesday night and Wednesday...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
401 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INHIBIT LOW CLOUD DISSIPATION BELOW 1 KM
UNTIL DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 1 KM INCREASES. AS A RESULT
OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS...STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM
OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND FASTER
THAN WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES. BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
CISCO TO DENTON TO PARIS. WILL MENTION PROSPECTS FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THE OFFICIAL GRID AND TEXT FORECASTS FOR THOSE AREAS...WITH NO
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS HAVE PROMPTED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR A
POTENTIAL ICE STORM IN AREAS TO OUR NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF AREA. DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.

San Angelo also has added Freezing Rain in the Morning AFD..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
443 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009


.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IR LOOP INDICATES LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE STAYING EAST
OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
31 IN ABILENE TO 31 IN JUNCTION.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST CYCLE LIES IN THE SHORT TERM. ALL
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AND SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
MONDAY. WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AGAIN TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
AGAIN PUSH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS RANGES...FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...TO AROUND 70. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL BEGIN
RETURNING TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTH. AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES TO DOMINATE
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EJECTING MINOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA ON
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO OUR
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN. AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING WILL INCREASE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CENTERED ON ABI
AND SJT...INDICATE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A NEAR
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING TO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES...DECIDED TO INCLUDE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THERE BEGINNING
03Z TUESDAY (9 PM CST MONDAY EVENING). FROM THEN THROUGH SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING...ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO INDICATE A SLOW
PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD OF THE FREEZING RAIN LIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST.
SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...DECIDED TO CONTINUE FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE BIG COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST LAYER BELOW ABOUT 500 FEET
WILL BE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THUS...ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ALL LIQUID. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHEAR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE 30 POPS ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR THIS PERIOD.

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS run is coming in a bit colder than the 0z run. Take a look below at the surface temps progged for 12z Wednesday. As for how it might affect North Texas, I haven't looked at the precip but I suspect that most of it will be gone by this time based on what the NWS forecast discussions are saying.

0z run for 12z Wed:


12z run for 12z Wed:

[ntxweatherwatcher]

We need some wintery precip here!! It has been a very dry winter, so far. Any hopes at all for any frozen precipitation?

[somethingfunny]

Point Forecast: Pottsboro TX
33.78°N 96.68°W (Elev. 751 ft)

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a steady temperature around 40. East southeast wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: A chance of drizzle after 3am. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 40. East wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Grayson County Airport
Lat: 33.73 Lon: -96.67 Elev: 748
Last Update on Jan 25, 2:45 pm CST

Fair

52°F
(11°C)
Humidity: 41 %
Wind Speed: SE 5 MPH
Barometer: 30.07"
Dewpoint: 28°F (-2°C)
Wind Chill: 51°F (11°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Uh oh. If they botched that one by 12°, I've got a bad feeling about our possible winter storm in the next few days.

[southerngale]

Just the opposite down here. My forecast:

This Afternoon: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. East wind around 5 mph.

It hasn't gotten past 48.

[Portastorm]

In its Sunday afternoon forecast discussion, the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio is trying to trick me into getting my kicking shoes on for this week as they reference the possibility of ice pellets on Wednesday:

ISOLATED PL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG OUR NORTHERN AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES OR GRIDS YET.

Ha! No you don't Lucy ... I recognize you!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Double posted in S Plains thread...


FWD AFD

(snip)

THE MODELS ARE FALLING MORE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER REGARDING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS...WACO...
TO ATHENS. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...THESE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. QPF FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND ECMFW ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON
THE FACT THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD AIR WILL BE VERY SHALLOW SO
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. OF COURSE THIS
EVENT IS STILL 3 DAYS OUT AND MANY THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH THE
PRECIP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
TYPE OF WATCH...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING RAIN EVENT.

[Portastorm]

Local NWS forecasters making some rumblings about possible freezing rain Tuesday night and Wednesday morning in the Hill Country and far northwestern parts of the Austin metro area. I'll believe it when I see it (or hear about it!).

Meanwhile, you north Texans look like you're actually going to see some winter. Good luck!

[srainhoutx]

HGX "hinted" in morning AFD concerning Freezing Rain as well Portastorm...snipet...

HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE WARM FRONT
STALLING AROUND CROCKETT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. RAISED POPS TONIGHT DUE TO
THE FASTER FROPA AND RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. S/W ALSO PROGGED
TO SWING BY TONIGHT. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. TO THE
POINT THAT THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY -FZRA IF
THE 00Z NAM PANS OUT. THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN THAT HAS BROUGHT
THE WINTERY MIX INTO THE FORECAST AM SKEPTICAL ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF
ON ANY MENTION OF -FZRA IN GRIDS/FORECAST BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR. COLD FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE NW GULF BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE NW...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. HAVE ALSO TENDED TEMPERATURES BELOW GFS GUIDANCE
AS VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OVER THE CWA
12Z THU-SAT.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Winter Storm to affect Texas starting tonight through Wednesday.

Currently old cold front is laying off the coast and returning northward as a warm front. Fog and low clouds blanket all of the area and local radar shows a few very light showers moving northward in the warm air advection pattern. Warm front with low 60 degree dewpoints should overspread much of the area today before stalling across the northern part of the area.

Up to the north the next batch of cold arctic air is holding across OK and the TX panhandle with temps in the teens and 20’s. Density of this air mass will allow it to begin a southward movement this afternoon and then there is little that will stop its push. While the flow pattern south of the front are very unfavorable for a frontal passage the density of this cold air will go ahead and undercut the unfavorable flow and push on southward. Will follow the NAM guidance fairly closely with onset of cold air advection in the 300am to 600am across our northern counties and then 600am to noon central and metro Houston and then afternoon along the coast…exception will likely be in the Matagorda Bay area where shallow cold air will dam against the higher terrain of central TX and drop southward faster…frontal passage could be as early as 900am at VCT. No doubt highs will be early with temps. falling during the day on Tuesday…one of those where we start out in the 60’s and end up in the 40’s.

Shallow cold air mass will be overrun by southerly flow off the surface resulting in clouds, fog, and drizzle Tuesday. Potent short wave approaches late Tuesday with at least a chance of showers. See Drought section below…but models trending toward climo in regard to rainfall is not playing out per past few “wet” event that ended up being dry. While high rain chances are warranted…the amounts will be on the light side and mainly consist of fast moving showers or drizzle.

My liking of the NAM guidance also raises the possibility of freezing rain/drizzle across the northwest parts of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. While the surface temp. is forecast to be in the mid 30’s dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 20’s and a look at upstream surface observations suggest this air mass is colder and drier than guidance is forecasting…what a surprise! Will not get overly concerned just yet as I am not all that confident that much will fall this far NW and the temps. are just at the threshold for icing. Bigger issues will be found just north over N TX where Winter Storm Watches and Freezing Rain Advisories will go into effect this evening. Traveling north of our area will become increasingly dangerous starting late tonight as freezing rain results in icing.

Next push of cold air and deeper NW flow aloft will arrive on Thursday resulting in clearing skies. Expected low dewpoint air mass and clear skies along with light winds suggest near excellent radiational cooling conditions for both Friday and Saturday mornings. Will likely see near freezing or sub-freezing lows in many areas…however we have seen this already this winter season so no impacts are expected except perhaps on vegetation that is already in spring bloom.

Drought:

I was hoping that Hurricane Ike would have been strong and wet enough to upset the upper air pattern and building drought conditions over central TX. Ike passed too far to the east and in fact brought needed rains to SE TX but nothing to the “exceptional” drought areas of central TX. It is now clear that Ike just slowed the eastward progression of the central Texas drought and since then rainfall has been on the light side. The last time greater than an inch of rain fell was in November and for the month of January rainfall at IAH is only .39 of an inch and GLS is on track to have its 4th driest Jan on record. As the flow remains from W to E this time of year, weather systems passing over C TX first are unable to generate rainfall in that drought area and really do not start producing rain until east of the Sabine River. Feedback processes are common in such situations where the ground dries to a point that is begins to feedback on the atmosphere reducing moisture levels and the cycle continues until something comes along that is strong enough to break it….usually in Texas it is a hurricane or tropical storm. Given the weak La Nina pattern in place which is already a dry pattern for Texas and the expansion of the core of the central Texas dryness there it is reasonable to believe that drought conditions will expand this spring to cover much of SE TX with our western and southwestern areas likely going into a severe to possibility exceptional drought conditions.

Along with the dry conditions comes an increased risk of wildfires. The winter and early spring months are by far the worst fire months across TX as fuels are cured from winter freezes and the air masses behind polar fronts very dry along with gusty winds. Fire conditions are approaching critical levels across much of the state as noted by the 53,000 acre fire last week near Hawley, TX. Until the spring green up begins fire conditions will remain critical on windy days.

[Portastorm]

Ruh-roh, Raggy!

*********************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1034 AM CST MON JAN 26 2009

.UPDATE...
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ONGOING. 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MOIST LAYER
EXTENDING UP TO 800 MB WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. DONT THINK WE WILL
SEE MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP BEFORE THE COLUMN MOISTENS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN THIS MORNING NEAR PARIS BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY BEFORE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP BEGINS.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST. SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA TOMORROW. AFTER FROPA...FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONG AT ALL
LEVELS AND THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER
AND WILL PRODUCE LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH
THROUGHOUT MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS EXCEEDING
1/2 OF AN INCH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE POTENTIAL ICE STORM TOMORROW. EARLY LOOKS AT THE 12Z NAM
CONTINUES THE TREND OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW. MANY AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX MOST LIKELY WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING IN THE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW AND NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY. 12Z GFS IS SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE
FROM JUST 6 HOURS AGO AND IS ALSO BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BY NOON. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL ISSUE AN ICE STORM WARNING WITH THE MORNING UPDATE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARNING. THE WARNING
WILL BEGIN AT 00Z TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE
FREEZING LINE WILL DIVE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLD AIR.

[gboudx]

Crap. Hopefully I can get home before it starts tomorrow. We lost power for 3 hours the last time we had light icing at the house, but that may not have been related to the weather. Don't know. Hopefully that air winds up being deeper and we get more sleet than ice.

[mysterymachinebl]

Crap. Hopefully I can get home before it starts tomorrow. We lost power for 3 hours the last time we had light icing at the house, but that may not have been related to the weather. Don't know. Hopefully that air winds up being deeper and we get more sleet than ice.

Yeah, I lost power for over 6 the event a few weeks ago. Not fun! I am really hoping we will get sleet instead of the freezing rain!

[Mattie]

Statement as of 10:57 AM CST on January 26, 2009

... Ice Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 12 PM
CST Wednesday...
... Winter Storm Watch no longer in effect...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued an Ice
Storm Warning for significant icing across the northern two thirds
of North Texas from 6 PM this evening to 12 PM CST Wednesday. The
Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday and Tuesday night is no longer in
effect.

Periods of freezing rain will develop late this evening and
overnight along and northwest of a Lampasas... hillboro... to Canton
line. Temperatures will remain below freezing through Wednesday
morning and periods of light freezing rain will continue. Total
ice accumulations of one quarter inch are likely with isolated one
half inch amounts.

All precipitation will end Wednesday morning but temperatures should
remain below freezing until afternoon.

An Ice Storm Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Significant amounts of ice accumulations
will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible.