Texas Winter 2017-2018

[JDawg512]

Light rain continuing at the Rain Cave, temp has fallen to 39 degrees.

[iorange55]

Light snow (no sleet anymore) here in Cedar Hill. Maybe we'll get up to a half inch or so, lol. At least everything might be white in the morning.

[CaptinCrunch]

Radar continues to show snow building back to the NW, however what is falling is powdery and may not stick to roadways as the wind is blowing it around, however elevated surfaces may become extremely slick.

Lite snow continues to fall here but so far only collecting on roof tops.

[Texas Snow]

"FXUS64 KFWD 160520
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1120 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

Trends being held pretty close to 00z TAF discussion (below this
discussion), though the precipitation, mixed or otherwise is
fairly light due to some very dry surface to boundary layer air
as noted by the very dry surface dew point temperatures building
in from the north. Some evaporation is likely occurring and thus
visibilities continue to be mostly VFR, as are cigs. Precip
across DFW Metro airports is occasional very light sleet and snow
and now transitioning to mostly light snow or flurries. Only
light accums are expected, despite temps falling below freezing,
as road and ground temps vary between the mid 30s-mid 40s. Any
light wintry precipitation will likely end between 08z-10z and
before daybreak Tuesday, as the deeper dry air continues filtering
in and the shortwave lifts east away from the area. Otherwise,
gusty north winds 15-20 knots with gusts to as high as 30 knots
will continue overnight, weakening with less gustiness during the
day Tuesday. By late afternoon/early evening Tuesday, clearing
skies and a very chilly airmass will allow rapid decoupling by
nightfall with north winds 5-8 knots."


Not too encouraging for those holding out hope. Radar echo opacity seems to be slimming out west too (although its still coming down here right now.)

I will say this with a loud shout out to Wxman57, I am jealous of those south of here. Not only does it look like you will get more, it looks like a lot of you will see it during the day, as opposed to when you should be sleeping. That is awesome so please enjoy if it should play out that way. Seriously, I hope you enjoy.

I just realized by accident that this is my 100th post after years of lurking. Kind of a sad little post I guess, unless I look out the window and see at least some snow while I sit here and complain.

But with that said, Wxman57, if I don't get my REAL snow this year, you will find out next winter that you only thought this winter was cold. You will go from your 700c road tires to these monsters, in Houston, in November through April. Bring on the February DFW SNOW or you will need these to ride. The gauntlet has been thrown down.

[EnnisTx]

Well... I'm done, this has been another dud in my humble opinion.

[wxman22]

The Texas WRF is not backing down on the potential for mesoscale banding if this were to verify there could be some areas getting higher amounts than what has been forecasted.

[South Texas Storms]

And it has trended heavier on each of the past few runs. I'm hoping most of that is snow and not freezing rain.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Not real excited about the prospects of this in Austin, either. Doesn't look like the precip is expanding at all, but maybe I'm just being impatient.

[bubba hotep]

Hope is fading fast but we have transitioned to rimed dendrites... just want to see a few minutes of fat flakes before calling it a night.

[South Texas Storms]

Not real excited about the prospects of this in Austin, either. Doesn't look like the precip is expanding at all, but maybe I'm just being impatient.

The main time frame for Austin is between 3am and noon. We should start to see precip expand in coverage after midnight.

[Ralph's Weather]

Snow here up to around a quarter inch of various precip types.

[DFWLady]

Welp. I'm severely upset that DFW didn't get snow at all again. I was really hopeful this time for winter weather. My kids arent happy about it either. I hope the SE gets some good snow. I'm very jealous here in Dallas!

[Ntxw]

Just got done walking the dog and it started coming down a bit steadier again but there is sleet mixed in still. The wind took a bite

[Lagreeneyes03]

Welp. I'm severely upset that DFW didn't get snow at all again. I was really hopeful this time for winter weather. My kids arent happy about it either. I hope the SE gets some good snow. I'm very jealous here in Dallas!

We've gone between having 2 winter seasons of "Cold Rain" and now "Too cold to snow". I feel like someone did a hex on us for sure.

[Ntxw]

The winners in all this (so far) is I-30 corridor east/ne of DFW. Mineola/Quitman is 23F with half mile visibility and snowing. Texarkana 1.25 mile vis

[DFWLady]

Welp. I'm severely upset that DFW didn't get snow at all again. I was really hopeful this time for winter weather. My kids arent happy about it either. I hope the SE gets some good snow. I'm very jealous here in Dallas!

We've gone between having 2 winter seasons of "Cold Rain" and now "Too cold to snow". I feel like someone did a hex on us for sure.

Oh I agree completely! I don't get it! We want snow to!!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like I may miss the really good stuff by just a few miles to my north and east. Even still I am getting accumulating snow so can't complain.

[Ntxw]

Looks like I may miss the really good stuff by just a few miles to my north and east. Even still I am getting accumulating snow so can't complain.

You're in a good spot with several more hours to go

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like I may miss the really good stuff by just a few miles to my north and east. Even still I am getting accumulating snow so can't complain.

You're in a good spot with several more hours to go

Radar does look good right now. 25 so all is sticking now. Now if only soon would settle down to sleep so i can go out and enjoy it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, now that this event is “fully underway” I think we can start assessing the performance of the models. Given the way the radar looks right now, the HRRR definitely was the most accurate in terms of radar display. I can also see why it had several hours of frozen precip before any accumulations actually began showing up. As Wxman57 said, the air is just too dry. It seems as though only a fraction of what the radar is showing is even reaching the ground.

However, what I can’t seem to figure out is what the difference is between this event and a system like what happened in feb 2011 where moisture was very scarce, but it still managed to substantially overperform. Can anyone offer some insight into the differences?