Texas Winter 2021-2022

[HockeyTx82]

Clear that with the latest 0z WRF members in along with NAM/RAP/HRRR that DFW is looking "better" by the hour (in particular Fort Worth) than it was earlier today in terms of additional ice potential tomorrow morning. Definitely not out of the woods completely with those cold surface temps but I have a feeling we might see additional expansion of the WSW further S & SE with time based on model trends.

Yep, system is a lot weaker than progged….cold is picking more of a punch but QPF is dwindling by the hour

So are we looking at a ice storm bust now in terms of what has been forecast to meh, just cold tonight? This is the type of stuff that gives Meteorologist a bad name.

[orangeblood]

Clear that with the latest 0z WRF members in along with NAM/RAP/HRRR that DFW is looking "better" by the hour (in particular Fort Worth) than it was earlier today in terms of additional ice potential tomorrow morning. Definitely not out of the woods completely with those cold surface temps but I have a feeling we might see additional expansion of the WSW further S & SE with time based on model trends.

Yep, system is a lot weaker than progged….cold is picking more of a punch but QPF is dwindling by the hour

So are we looking at a ice storm bust now in terms of what has been forecast to meh, just cold tonight? This is the type of stuff that gives Meteorologist a bad name.

Looking more likely that this system won’t meet forecast, precip still likely and anything will stick on contact but just not seeing the QPF now

[Haris]

This is ice anyway and the little amounts have caused enough headache. So this is good news for everyone. A bit frustrating still due to the time invested in tracking it for sure. But better than a snow bust of 7"

[jasons2k]

This was sent from Jeff at about 7:30:

Winter Weather Advisory now in effect for tonight into early Thursday for areas NW of Houston.

This advisory is roughly along and NW of a lien from Columbus to Brenham to Huntsville.

Shallow, yet very cold arctic air mass continues to spill into the region this evening with surface freezing line extending from west of Huntsville to Brenham to Columbus. Areas of light freezing rain and freezing drizzle continue to develop to the northwest of this line and this will continue through much of the night. While surface ground temperatures are in the mid 30’s, elevated structures such as bridges, overpasses, rooftops, trees, power lines have cooled to or below freezing and this is allowing light icing to develop on these surfaces.

Expect additional precipitation tonight to generally average less than .10 of an inch and more likely around .05 of an inch, but with temperatures falling into the upper 20’s in the advisory area, much of what falls will freeze on contact with sub freezing surfaces.

Expect the freezing line to advance some southward tonight, but at this time do not expect any freezing drizzle into the metro Houston area, it is possible portions of Waller, Northern Fort Bend, Montgomery, and extreme NW Harris County could see temperatures cold enough to produce a few icy patches on bridges.

Temperatures will remain cold tomorrow with many areas only reaching the low to mid 40’s on continued thick clouds and drizzle/light rain.

Same areas could again be near or below freezing tomorrow night and with continued chances of drizzle and light rain…some additional icing will be possible in those areas…again this will likely be N and W of the metro Houston area.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

[Ralph's Weather]

Amounts have trended way down. Now no models showing anything other than isolated pockets of warning criteria. And the area where that is possible is Hill Country to Paris. DFW looks like a light glaze at this point. It'll still be treacherous but far from what was modeled. Worst of the storm was the sleet earlier today NW of DFW.

[HockeyTx82]

Yep, system is a lot weaker than progged….cold is picking more of a punch but QPF is dwindling by the hour

So are we looking at a ice storm bust now in terms of what has been forecast to meh, just cold tonight? This is the type of stuff that gives Meteorologist a bad name.

Looking more likely that this system won’t meet forecast, precip still likely and anything will stick on contact but just not seeing the QPF now

I've been on this board long enough where we have seen nothing turn into a winter wonderland. Mother Nature is going to do what she wants. We just saw all the models just about eat crow over temps, why do we expect them to get qpf correct?

[Haris]

Did anyone see the massive snow bust in MO/KS? BIggest sign of this storm dying

[Texas Snow]

Clear that with the latest 0z WRF members in along with NAM/RAP/HRRR that DFW is looking "better" by the hour (in particular Fort Worth) than it was earlier today in terms of additional ice potential tomorrow morning. Definitely not out of the woods completely with those cold surface temps but I have a feeling we might see additional expansion of the WSW further S & SE with time based on model trends.

Yep, system is a lot weaker than progged….cold is picking more of a punch but QPF is dwindling by the hour

So are we looking at a ice storm bust now in terms of what has been forecast to meh, just cold tonight? This is the type of stuff that gives Meteorologist a bad name.

Meteorologists haven’t been hyping this as a big QPF ice storm. The NWS and others have been consistent with low QPF amounts. They get bad names from 1) people that look at the extreme model examples (often posted by some on this website) or 2) get their forecast from weather apps and then get letdown when the *forecast* “busts”

[orangeblood]

Yep, system is a lot weaker than progged….cold is picking more of a punch but QPF is dwindling by the hour

So are we looking at a ice storm bust now in terms of what has been forecast to meh, just cold tonight? This is the type of stuff that gives Meteorologist a bad name.

Meteorologists haven’t been hyping this as a big QPF ice storm. The NWS and others have been consistent with low QPF amounts. They get bad names from people that look at the extreme model examples (often posted by some on this website) and then letdown when the *forecast* “busts”

They caved too and went with Warnings, which appears unlikely….this is just one of the many humbling ways of Mother Nature

[HockeyTx82]

Yep, system is a lot weaker than progged….cold is picking more of a punch but QPF is dwindling by the hour

So are we looking at a ice storm bust now in terms of what has been forecast to meh, just cold tonight? This is the type of stuff that gives Meteorologist a bad name.

Meteorologists haven’t been hyping this as a big QPF ice storm. The NWS and others have been consistent with low QPF amounts. They get bad names from people that look at the extreme model examples (often posted by some on this website) and then letdown when the *forecast* “busts”

I mean the perception of Winter Storm Warning to the public. If most people wake up tomorrow and there's nothing really happening they blow it off as the weatherman got it wrong again. They don't care why and say if I was as bad at my job as this forecast I'd be fired. We get it because we understand. Just a few weeks ago we had a Winter Storm Warning and it delivered. The vast majority of people, minus social media folks who repost a random model run with extremes, don't follow weather like we do.

Same thing in my line of work. IT. Just make it work and I don't care why it broke and how you fixed it.

Weather forecasting is a utility to most people, just like the lights in your house. So long as it works no issue, when it's wrong people complain, just like when the lights don't come on.

I don't envy weather folks with forecasting this kind of stuff.

[Texas Snow]

So are we looking at a ice storm bust now in terms of what has been forecast to meh, just cold tonight? This is the type of stuff that gives Meteorologist a bad name.

Meteorologists haven’t been hyping this as a big QPF ice storm. The NWS and others have been consistent with low QPF amounts. They get bad names from people that look at the extreme model examples (often posted by some on this website) and then letdown when the *forecast* “busts”

They caved too and went with Warnings, which appears unlikely….this is just one of the many humbling ways of Mother Nature

The general public doesn’t know the difference between watch warning and advisory, they just don’t. The NWS consistently has said .1 to .2 inches of ice which is about what we will get. But yes I understand your point, the public doesn’t see a foot of ice with no power and says bust even if they technically got it right.

[rwfromkansas]

The hard part for ice/freezing rain is that there’s a big difference between .05 and .20 of ice.

Just rain, not so much.

At least school is called.

[Ralph's Weather]

Highway bridges in the Tyler area are experiencing significant icing and this is just from very light drizzle. Heard that I-20 was temporally shut down locally due to a bad ice patch. It does not take much ice at all to create travel issues.

[CaptinCrunch]

I don't need an ice storm, sleet and snow sure, bring it. Last months storm brought down a 14" limb from my neighbors tree that happened to fall just right to knock a softball size hole in my roof over the garage, $495 later it was repaired.

My job (IT) we can work remotely when this type of weather happens, but just .10 - .20 of ice already cause enough chaos this morning, luckily I'll be sitting by the fireplace having my coffee in the morning waiting on that first call that someone can't login or they forget their password for the umpteen time.

[txtwister78]

Meteorologists haven’t been hyping this as a big QPF ice storm. The NWS and others have been consistent with low QPF amounts. They get bad names from people that look at the extreme model examples (often posted by some on this website) and then letdown when the *forecast* “busts”

They caved too and went with Warnings, which appears unlikely….this is just one of the many humbling ways of Mother Nature

The general public doesn’t know the difference between watch warning and advisory, they just don’t. The NWS consistently has said .1 to .2 inches of ice which is about what we will get. But yes I understand your point, the public doesn’t see a foot of ice with no power and says bust even if they technically got it right.

With any forecasted winter weather or heck even just a plain precip event in general, this is why I always encourage a blended approach with whatever models show regardless of a preferred model of choice (especially several days out). It's really just another reminder that things can and do often change (occasionally within short time periods) and so discussing pattern possibilities is one thing but posting "doomsday precip maps" or jumping the gun with talk of ice storm warnings or winter storm warnings too quickly can also be a problem when it comes to credibility for the general public at large in the long term. Having said that, I generally think it's better to be safe than sorry when it comes to protecting life/property (particularly during severe weather season) and so hopefully the public will appreciate that should this precip "bust" verify (which btw I think is good news considering the type).

In regard to the precip swings, I think when we knew the globals were out to lunch with respect to the temp bust they had, I never understood using them for QPF? Just didn't make any sense to me. Once it became clear that the NAM (and other HI-RES models) were in large part more credible with temps (colder arctic air much further south) it seemed more likely that this event would be on the lighter side overall.

Edit...not to suggest this event may not be impactful for some. Just want to make that clear also. Still some weather left to monitor.

[Ralph's Weather]

Currently under a band but seems temps have risen to around 30 so icing only elevated surfaces. That said this should be end the desire to travel around the Tyler area until at least tomorrow afternoon. All bridges will be in bad shape.

[ravyrn]

Currently under a band but seems temps have risen to around 30 so icing only elevated surfaces. That said this should be end the desire to travel around the Tyler area until at least tomorrow afternoon. All bridges will be in bad shape.

Yeah Palestine Airport dropped down to 28F around 5pm but has warmed up to 30F in the last hour or so. Still a little ice on elevated surfaces and a glaze on vehicles.

[Ralph's Weather]

Interesting to note that no models show the current moderate freezing rain band being as strong as it currently is. There may yet be some juice left in this event, but it seems very likely to be almost entirely east of DFW. If temps here fall back down to 28 or so ice will begin accreting rapidly.

[Texas Snow]

KFWS Radar is apparently down which is “wonderful” timing for DFW just as precip should start picking up.

[HockeyTx82]

KFWS Radar is apparently down which is “wonderful” timing for DFW just as precip should start picking up.

What precip......