Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6381 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:16 am

Mid 80s is too warm.

Minneapolis is having a banner snow season. The cold is up there just can't find its way down south. Ugh, I think I'd rather it be 100 in July 8-). At least acclimated by then.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6382 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:35 am

Ntxw wrote:Mid 80s is too warm.

Minneapolis is having a banner snow season. The cold is up there just can't find its way down south. Ugh, I think I'd rather it be 100 in July 8-). At least acclimated by then.

Someone on the ENSO thread mentioned the CFS is going for a Super El Nino this year, with a very active pacific and very quiet atlantic.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6383 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:17 pm

Curses, Texas is going to have Above Average Temperatures and Below Average rain again, California is going to be absolutely drenched again.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6384 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:12 pm

Ah, maybe we can go for a record over the next week or two? I remember that 1986 was very warm, too, with temps in the 90s in February. Can't beat that for winter weather.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6385 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 21, 2023 2:20 pm

Here's a web page I made a few years back. It hasn't been updated in 5-6 years. The 2021 cold wave may show up there with an update. Main point is the heat in 1986 and 1996. On Feb 20, 1986, we had an all-time February high of 91 degrees. I remember going swimming at my apartment complex. Water was still a little cool, but the air felt great.

http://wxman57.com/climo/iah/February.html
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6386 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:23 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Curses, Texas is going to have Above Average Temperatures and Below Average rain again, California is going to be absolutely drenched again.


Lake Tahoe, California currently has their coldest winter in 62 years and with the latest forecast, may make it into the top 5 all-time. Their weather is roughly inversely correlated to ours!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6387 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ah, maybe we can go for a record over the next week or two? I remember that 1986 was very warm, too, with temps in the 90s in February. Can't beat that for winter weather.

http://wxman57.com/images/Heat.JPG


I'll take it. The CPC summer forecast also made me happy-likely above average temps. The above average cant get here soon enough. Today's a tease. Thursday will be warmer in PA than here in the DFW
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6388 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:19 pm

DFW hit 90 this afternoon. Several degrees warmer than expected. Yuck.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6389 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:25 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:DFW hit 90 this afternoon. Several degrees warmer than expected. Yuck.


Crazy up here we are again not making the 70 they forecast :lol: clouds killing the torch
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6390 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:31 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:DFW hit 90 this afternoon. Several degrees warmer than expected. Yuck.


National high so far is 92F at Falcon Lake. We are definitely the hottest place in the US today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6391 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:34 pm

This is probably more for the Spring thread, but trends continue towards an -EPO/AO/NAO in the longer range. I would expect temps to trend colder as the end of the ensembles start to approach mid-March.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6392 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:57 pm

I believe that Mr heat miser is getting a little too cocky ahead of this SSW!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6393 Postby DallasAg » Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:Here's a web page I made a few years back. It hasn't been updated in 5-6 years. The 2021 cold wave may show up there with an update. Main point is the heat in 1986 and 1996. On Feb 20, 1986, we had an all-time February high of 91 degrees. I remember going swimming at my apartment complex. Water was still a little cool, but the air felt great.

http://wxman57.com/climo/iah/February.html


1996 also featured record lows the 2nd week in March (DFW hit 22 and 20 - both records), another late-season freeze toward the end of the month, and a memorable snowstorm the first week in April which dumped 18" near Abilene on Good Friday. Not giving up hope yet!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6394 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:07 pm

Pretty big differences b/w the Euro/CMC/RGEM and the American models on rainfall totals for tonight into tomorrow.

00z RGEM which is supported by the 18z Euro

Image

12k & 3k NAM

Image

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6395 Postby Gotwood » Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:35 pm

DallasAg wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Here's a web page I made a few years back. It hasn't been updated in 5-6 years. The 2021 cold wave may show up there with an update. Main point is the heat in 1986 and 1996. On Feb 20, 1986, we had an all-time February high of 91 degrees. I remember going swimming at my apartment complex. Water was still a little cool, but the air felt great.

http://wxman57.com/climo/iah/February.html


1996 also featured record lows the 2nd week in March (DFW hit 22 and 20 - both records), another late-season freeze toward the end of the month, and a memorable snowstorm the first week in April which dumped 18" near Abilene on Good Friday. Not giving up hope yet!


From your lips to Gods ears.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6396 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:50 pm

The 0z GFS is snowy in Texas at day 10 and no its a current run :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6397 Postby Gotwood » Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:38 am

Brent wrote:The 0z GFS is snowy in Texas at day 10 and no its a current run :spam:

Maybe something to watch the CMC shows some colder air around that time too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6398 Postby WeatherNewbie » Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:59 am

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Ah, maybe we can go for a record over the next week or two? I remember that 1986 was very warm, too, with temps in the 90s in February. Can't beat that for winter weather.

http://wxman57.com/images/Heat.JPG


I'll take it. The CPC summer forecast also made me happy-likely above average temps. The above average cant get here soon enough. Today's a tease. Thursday will be warmer in PA than here in the DFW


above average summer equals drought and continued drying up of our lakes and aquifers. why would that make you happy?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6399 Postby harp » Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:46 am

Brent wrote:The 0z GFS is snowy in Texas at day 10 and no its a current run :spam:

Am I missing something? I don’t see it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6400 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:39 am

harp wrote:
Brent wrote:The 0z GFS is snowy in Texas at day 10 and no its a current run :spam:

Am I missing something? I don’t see it.


Brent said the 0z. You’re probably looking at the 6z.
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