Texas Winter 2021-2022

[bevolon]

Interesting, the global models have higher qpf for most of Texas over the next 36hrs vs the hi-res models. Usually, it's the reverse.

Definite trend now showing up on Hi-Res, QPF almost cut in half….much spottier too/less widespread.

So less precip?

[Ralph's Weather]

I am very interested in what SHV has to say this afternoon. I don't expect heavy accumulations but their graphic from this morning barely brings any ice into E TX and now their WWA suggests that they expect a more significant event.

[bubba hotep]

Interesting, the global models have higher qpf for most of Texas over the next 36hrs vs the hi-res models. Usually, it's the reverse.

Definite trend now showing up on Hi-Res, QPF almost cut in half….much spottier too/less widespread.

So less precip?

It's hard to say. It was always going to be on the lower side (unless you hug the Euro, but it did have support from some RGEM runs). Also, I would prefer less, if it's just going to be freezing rain.

[bevolon]

Definite trend now showing up on Hi-Res, QPF almost cut in half….much spottier too/less widespread.

So less precip?

It's hard to say. It was always going to be on the lower side (unless you hug the Euro, but it did have support from some RGEM runs). Also, I would prefer less, if it's just going to be freezing rain.

Thank you! I appreciate all of the information that is put out about winter weather!

[orangeblood]

Definite trend now showing up on Hi-Res, QPF almost cut in half….much spottier too/less widespread.

So less precip?

It's hard to say. It was always going to be on the lower side (unless you hug the Euro, but it did have support from some RGEM runs). Also, I would prefer less, if it's just going to be freezing rain.

The spotty nature of what’s showing up now is usually the tell (we’ve seen it numerous times over the years within this window), lacking larger scale lift to over perform or even perform to forecast.

Not saying things aren’t going to ice up but could turn into a much less widespread event where some parts of a county get .02 inch while others get 10 times that of 0.20 inch

[bubba hotep]

It looks like HRRR soundings suggest the potential for thunder sleet across DFW tomorrow morning.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV new graphics are more aggressive with the ice 8n their western zones. I would expect FTW to update their eastern zones to match. If trends continue warnings may be considered overnight east of DFW into East Texas.

[HockeyTx82]

Silver lining, paid day off with cold weather, my family and hot pot of chili no matter what happens tonight.

[Cpv17]

Silver lining, paid day off with cold weather, my family and hot pot of chili no matter what happens tonight.

Doesn’t get much better than that.

[txtwister78]

[gpsnowman]

Silver lining, paid day off with cold weather, my family and hot pot of chili no matter what happens tonight.

Yep got an off day tomorrow and just put on the beef stew in the crock pot. Mmmmmm.

[Iceresistance]

Silver lining, paid day off with cold weather, my family and hot pot of chili no matter what happens tonight.

Yep got an off day tomorrow and just put on the beef stew in the crock pot. Mmmmmm.

Last night, we (Especially my Grandmother) did the Grill.

Does it seem like that this storm system is perfect for Grilling & Chili making?

[Ralph's Weather]

Models trending toward quest icing being easy of DFW. Big whiff by globals on this one.

[Cpv17]

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022022321/018/zr_acc.us_sc.png

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022321/018/zr_acc.us_sc.png

Man, Arkansas is always getting hammered with ice it seems.

[Iceresistance]

Models trending toward quest icing being easy of DFW. Big whiff by globals on this one.

Imagine if the Operational Models got the 2nd wave right, in DFW, but the Mesoscales get my area correct for the 2nd wave? That would be Odd! But it would also be a good compromise

[Iceresistance]

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022022321/018/zr_acc.us_sc.png

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022321/018/zr_acc.us_sc.png

Man, Arkansas is always getting hammered with ice it seems.

My Aunt is in Arkansas right now . . . This is not good, they were considering leaving tomorrow morning, but now they are considering doing it tonight because of this.

[Portastorm]

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022022321/018/zr_acc.us_sc.png

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022321/018/zr_acc.us_sc.png

Dang … our numbers are headed in the wrong direction … up!

[Ntxw]

DFW as of now afternoon high is 25F. It has dropped a degree since to 24F. 31F is the coldest high during early Feb outbreak which was likely close to today's high sometime after midnight.

#GroundhogWasRight

[GeauxTigers]

So, will NTX be getting any more precip?

[orangeblood]

So, will NTX be getting any more precip?

Yes, heaviest starting after midnight thru late morning