Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Haris]

Models are blahhh. They aren’t even really that cold imo.

the GFS is blah but the Euro/EPS almost challenges some records here and would be coldest temps of the entire winter

GEFS is great for sleet, an inch mean of the stuff. FV3 has a winter storm as well.

FV3 doesnt have anything big. GEFS havent done too well. They always show winter weather and back off last min, I've noticed this winter.


I am not writing this one off. Dont get me wrong. But I think moisture is an issue with this.

[Haris]

Looking ahead, as STS mentioned earlier, I agree that it gets wetter than average beginning the 8th-9th timeframe.

Looking at the EPS and indiv member cape values, they're hinting our first severe weather threat somewhere around the 10th-13th timeframe. We shall see.

[spencer817]

Euro sucks, oh well, time for severe weather!

[Brent]

Euro trending drier Sunday and the snow is further away

I really hope this is it for "winter"

[gpsnowman]

Watch for a massive temp bust on Thu across N and NE TX. Forecast is for mid 50s but may only see mid 30s with a rain sleet mix.

Good call. NWS Fort Worth describes this perfectly in this mornings discussion. All depends where the boundary sets up and how far south. Big temp gradient likely wherever the boundary sets up shop. Precip still a big question mark though.

[Ralph's Weather]

Three small chances for winter precip over the coming few days. I'm not excited about any of them right now. Some record low highs could be challenged with this and Wed morning could drop into the teens.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It’s going to be an interesting day temperature wise. It’s already 42 with temps suppose to be dropping to below freezing by 5:00 pm.

[wxman57]

Models are trending drier early next week. I notice the FV3-GFS is no longer going with 9" of snow near Pensacola. In fact, not much snow at all (if any) across the deep south. Chances of snow in the D-FW area appear to be diminishing. South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder are not happy. I think they are ready to concede that winter comes to an end after next Tuesday's non-event. Bring on the heat!

[orangeblood]

The only thing that comes to mind this morning is the lyrics from the Classic Willie Nelson song "Turn out the lights, the Party's over"! Except I feel like there wasn't a party at all, more like waterboarding and it is never ending....what a miserable part of the country we live in for winter weather lately, brutal!

[CaptinCrunch]

I've remained pretty quiet so far but it's now time to make a few points.

1. This is our last chance at a winter event this season unless something crazy happens. Latest freeze on record for DFW is April 12th.

2. I pretty much use the FV3-GFS for long tosses at the trash can, it has done horriable this winter IMO. Stick to the EURO and others

3. I see little reason to believe the forecast even 2 days out at this time with these type of events, Monday's forecast for today and Friday were temps in the low 70's, now mid 60's today, mid 50 Friday.

4. Time and time again the dense arctic air produces temps at ground level 5-10 degrees lower than whats forecasted, we saw this 2 weeks ago when the forecasted temps were 5-7 degrees warmer than what was obsereved on the ground (43 was actually 34)

5. Models change every run or few runs to accurately say it is or is not going to happen, it's a wait and see game....

6. Currently the Weather Rock shows cloudy & damp conditions

[Yukon Cornelius]

Already down to 34 with drizzle. Wind chill in the mid 20s.

[Ralph's Weather]

Currently the freeze line is almost to WF while its near 60 in Bowie and Jacksboro. NAM is not far off on front placement but it is about 5 degrees warm behind the front this morning in OK and TX Panhandle. Its down to 11 between Dalhart and Guymon where the NAM shows it to be 21.
I could see the I-20 corridor topping out between 35 and 55 tomorrow depending on how much moisture there is. The I-10 corridor will be anywhere from 40-70 depending on if the front can push all the way through. The NAM takes the front all the way to Brownsville by Friday morning while the GFS only gets it down to San Antonio. I think betting on the NAM for front placement is a good safe bet.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Models are trending drier early next week. I notice the FV3-GFS is no longer going with 9" of snow near Pensacola. In fact, not much snow at all (if any) across the deep south. Chances of snow in the D-FW area appear to be diminishing. South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder are not happy. I think they are ready to concede that winter comes to an end after next Tuesday's non-event. Bring on the heat!

Unfortunately, I"m not seeing enough heat for NTX, it looks to be below average through March....any truth to that

[CaptinCrunch]

Currently the freeze line is almost to WF while its near 60 in Bowie and Jacksboro. NAM is not far off on front placement but it is about 5 degrees warm behind the front this morning in OK and TX Panhandle. Its down to 11 between Dalhart and Guymon where the NAM shows it to be 21.
I could see the I-20 corridor topping out between 35 and 55 tomorrow depending on how much moisture there is. The I-10 corridor will be anywhere from 40-70 depending on if the front can push all the way through. The NAM takes the front all the way to Brownsville by Friday morning while the GFS only gets it down to San Antonio. I think betting on the NAM for front placement is a good safe bet.

I'm thinking 45-50 for highs on Friday and Saturday vs the current forecasted mid to upper 50's. Thursdays high has continued to trend downward each update, currently forecasted @ 47

[stormlover2013]

yep, lets see if the models will change again around Saturday lol looks like winter is almost coming to an end.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Below freezing with light freezing drizzle NW of Burkburnett.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Freezing drizzle in WF.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models are initializing way warm in the Panhandle where it is in the teens while models show them at 25-35. The NAM is a bit warm in OK but decent with front placement.

[Portastorm]

Freezing drizzle in WF.

Wichita Falls, the 2019 Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas

[Brent]

The GEFS is such a joke. Almost every member had snow yesterday