Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

the Euro looks like rain ending as snow Sunday afternoon for DFW, pretty quick shot but its something

accumulations stay north of the metro however

3 hard freezes after that on the Euro(would be coldest temps all winter lol) but no other precip

[Cerlin]

6z GFS has a little bit more snow and doesn’t miss DFW.

[bubba hotep]

the Euro looks like rain ending as snow Sunday afternoon for DFW, pretty quick shot but its something

accumulations stay north of the metro however

3 hard freezes after that on the Euro(would be coldest temps all winter lol) but no other precip

Still encouraged by the looks of things. Models will continue to struggle given that we have a huge -EPO driven cold dump and numerous s/w in the flow. Good luck pinning down the timing of all those features at this range.

[orangeblood]

6z GFS has a little bit more snow and doesn’t miss DFW.

There's two disturbances to watch closely...one on Sunday and the other Late Monday/Early Tuesday. If this cold front comes in on the stronger portion of ensemble guidance, we could be looking at two bouts of winter weather within a 48 hr time frame. Fresh Snow on top of snow, yes please!!!

[wxman57]

Here are some meteograms from the 06z GFS. Snow is indicated for the D-FW area on Tuesday as the disturbance moves over the sub-freezing air. Definitely a snow sounding on the 6Z GFS. No warm nose. Not a lot of moisture available. A dusting of 1/4" to 1/2" is indicated. Could happen this time, as this will be the coldest air of the winter (and deepest cold air). The limiting factor this time may be moisture rather than cold air. Of course, the event is still 6-7 days out, and we know that things can change between now and then.

D-FW area - snow?


Houston area - cold rain


Austin area - cold rain

[Cerlin]

Having the cold air this early out is good as we’ve seen before that the amount of moisture predicted can always fluctuate until the event, and usually it ends up differently anyway.

[CaptinCrunch]

.LONG TERM... /Issued 358 AM CST Tue Feb 26 2019 NWS FTW/
/Wednesday through Early Next Week/

Suffice to say, the long-term forecast presents myriad
challenges, including the following:

1) Temperature trends late Wednesday into Friday with a shallow
Arctic air mass
2) Potential for freezing drizzle Thursday morning near the Red
River
3) Potential for wintry precip on Sunday for areas generally
north of I-20
4) Potential for light snow or sleet early next week

[dhweather]

I guess someone else noticed the multiple 6+" snowfall forecasts in Florida ?

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1100391900111142913

[orangeblood]

I guess someone else noticed the multiple 6+" snowfall forecasts in Florida ?

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1100391900111142913

Wow! What a mess and embarrassment....but hey, at least the modeling community can tell us what Earth's temp will be 50 years from now

[rwfromkansas]

Somebody posted an article earlier this 'winter' that it was proven to be better than the GFS. What a joke.

[Tejas89]

FWD discussion definitely leaving the door open to adjusting temps this weekend (lower) and some "ongoing chances" of light precip next week.

[Cpv17]

GFS keeps trending stronger with the high. 6z now up to 1056mb. Originally the Euro was 1061mb to begin with.

[harp]

Where is Arctic Thunder?

[South Texas Storms]

Where is Arctic Thunder?

I'm hearing some rumblings from the desk behind me that he will be making a comeback soon. A post may be coming as soon as this afternoon.

[harp]

Where is Arctic Thunder?

I'm hearing some rumblings from the desk behind me that he will be making a comeback soon. A post may be coming as soon as this afternoon.

Ha ha ha!!!! I was wondering if he was going to stay silent!

[dhweather]

Where is Arctic Thunder?

He was giving a speech in their office this morning.

[Portastorm]

Where is Arctic Thunder?

I'm hearing some rumblings from the desk behind me that he will be making a comeback soon. A post may be coming as soon as this afternoon.

And the Storm 2K Texas Winter thread crowd goes wild!!

[wxman57]

I told those idiot Okie wall-builders along the Red River that I needed a SOLID wall!

[SoupBone]

I told those idiot Okie wall-builders along the Red River that I needed a SOLID wall!

Is your wall going to protect the Greater Houston Area from wintry precipitation?

[Ntxw]

GFS has 1055+ HP coming down from Canada. I'm not sure what the records are but that has got to be one of the bigger ones for March.

Early March 2014 (2013-2014) was pretty cold but that was low to mid 1040s