Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cerlin]

12z GEFS more bullish but will it last, starting as early as next Sunday Night on some members

https://i.ibb.co/pKPQXbP/download-16.png

My heart is telling me “this is the one” but my brain is telling me “so was the last time!”...dang winter messing with my emotions.

[Haris]

euro is good for you metro plexers. have we cancelled our hopes too early this year? time will tell.

[Brent]

Light snow in DFW next Sunday Night on the Euro

12z GEFS more bullish but will it last, starting as early as next Sunday Night on some members

https://i.ibb.co/pKPQXbP/download-16.png

My heart is telling me “this is the one” but my brain is telling me “so was the last time!”...dang winter messing with my emotions.

Same here wanna see if it holds up a couple of days

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS more bullish but will it last, starting as early as next Sunday Night on some members

https://i.ibb.co/pKPQXbP/download-16.png

One thing showing up in the models is that there could be multiple chances of winter wx during that 1st week of March.

[Haris]

Spring thread will have more pages than the winter thread if this keeps up...

[Ntxw]

12z GEFS more bullish but will it last, starting as early as next Sunday Night on some members

https://i.ibb.co/pKPQXbP/download-16.png

One thing showing up in the models is that there could be multiple chances of winter wx during that 1st week of March.

This tends to happen with late season big EPO dumps. 1987, 2002, 2008, 2015 being some examples.

[Portastorm]

12z GEFS more bullish but will it last, starting as early as next Sunday Night on some members

https://i.ibb.co/pKPQXbP/download-16.png

My heart is telling me “this is the one” but my brain is telling me “so was the last time!”...dang winter messing with my emotions.

I think many of us are thinking that right now.

As I told Haris today, this is either a sweet reward for those of us desperately wanting a Texas winter storm or one last kick in the teeth.

[Cpv17]

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS more bullish but will it last, starting as early as next Sunday Night on some members

https://i.ibb.co/pKPQXbP/download-16.png

One thing showing up in the models is that there could be multiple chances of winter wx during that 1st week of March.

This tends to happen with late season big EPO dumps. 1987, 2002, 2008, 2015 being some examples.

Keeping fingers crossed, but the big time -EPO potential started showing up a good 10 - 15 days ago based on the Pacific jet and the lag phase analogs. At this point, the big EPO dump looks pretty close to locked in (famous last words lol). The models were extending the jet a bit too much allowing for a +PNA to pop but have now started to back off of that. In fact, the Pacific jet should start to retract here pretty soon and it will eventually pull the mean trough back west after the cold snap, so cold & snow and then straight to svr wx season?

Today



vs the 18th when the models were more aggressive with the jet extension

[EnnisTx]

12z GEFS more bullish but will it last, starting as early as next Sunday Night on some members

https://i.ibb.co/pKPQXbP/download-16.png

My heart is telling me “this is the one” but my brain is telling me “so was the last time!”...dang winter messing with my emotions.

I think many of us are thinking that right now.

As I told Haris today, this is either a sweet reward for those of us desperately wanting a Texas winter storm or one last kick in the teeth.

I already scheduled an appointment with the dentist...

[Brent]

18z GEFS valid next Monday

[missygirl810]

18z GEFS valid next Monday

https://i.ibb.co/XF94zDc/GEFSSGP-prec-ptypens-192.png

I would like to request 14 please...

[Cpv17]

18z GEFS valid next Monday

https://i.ibb.co/XF94zDc/GEFSSGP-prec-ptypens-192.png

That doesn’t look very promising.

[spencer817]

18z GEFS valid next Monday

https://i.ibb.co/XF94zDc/GEFSSGP-prec-ptypens-192.png

That doesn’t look very promising.

It's one frame, far out. I'd say exactly the opposite, this run was even better (although 18z is untrustworthy).

[wxman57]

The 18Z GFS had less cold air aloft by 18Z the 5th - warm nose returned. No longer a snow sounding. Even though I admit that we may see some cold temps next week, I wouldn't get my hopes up for any significant snow in the D-FW area just yet. Cold rain, possibly with sleet, is much more likely.

[Ntxw]

The 18Z GFS had less cold air aloft by 18Z the 5th - warm nose returned. No longer a snow sounding. Even though I admit that we may see some cold temps next week, I wouldn't get my hopes up for any significant snow in the D-FW area just yet. Cold rain, possibly with sleet, is much more likely.

I'd say a cold rain or snow either or is more likely. Ice and sleet in March is fairly rare. You'd need upper column support (usually snow) to overcome climo.

[Texas Snow]

I’d take either sleet or snow at this point. Early March can come up with some nice surprises. It was early March 1987 or 1988 I believe when one of the most extreme weather events in my life happened.

I remember Friday working outdoors for some “rich” family friends to earn some money for a high school trip to NYC. It was swealtering for early March, low 80’s and I was sweating doing hours of yard work.

I was supposed to go to a church camp retreat near Weatherford but I was grounded for some reason (who knows what I did but as a parent now it was probably deserved) so didn’t go with the group.

Once I finished my mom said go ahead and go. Strangely she told me to take a coat. I arrived about midnight and it was clear and very warm. Everyone was asleep in the Cabins so I went straight to bed.

I remember thunder during the night and loud “rain” hitting the windows.

I woke up to a couple inches of sleet. All I had were shorts and a jacket for the weekend. It was in the teens most of the day. We had a dance that night and it started with some flurries. Woke up the next morning to 6” of snow on top of the sleet.

Pretty amazing what Texas can do when Mother Nature wants to play. Let’s hope this one gives us a good sendoff to Spring...

[Brent]

NBC 5 teasing there may be moisture around for the coldest air "weather aware" days Sunday and Tuesday

[Ntxw]

0z Guidance so far continues the theme that early March is probably going to be our coldest stretch (North of I-10) for the winter. The block in Alaska is pretty well anchored and meanders Northwest Canada enough to bring down the coldest air of the season.

Disturbances riding the base of the trough is still the big question mark. Nothing too well defined yet on the models (but then again a few days ago they had little) yet.

Kind of weird that after a whole winter where HPs have been run of the mill, here towards the end we may see some real ones back to back.

IF the winter is saved here at the very end, it will be because of the Pacific. Arctic and Atlantic notwithstanding. The AO is through the roof positive.

[Texas Snow]

Pete Delkus Ch8 Dallas Just highlighted the Euro showing 2.5 inches of snow and in a broad stroke bashed the GFS (showing an inch) while saying he wasn’t forecasting any of it yet, until he sees some consistency.

Interesting to see TV talking this far out. Not sure if it’s ratings or if they think it’s really possible. Hold on for the ride to spring!