Texas Winter 2021-2022
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- Haris
- Category 5
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Could have a snowstorm sat if temp biases remain
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
HockeyTx82 wrote:My home weather station (Ponder) went from 34F at 930AM to 42F at 1230PM.
That's interesting.
Has Wxman57 been anywhere near your weather station? His residual heat has a way of doing things like that.
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Any forecast I make is based on my opinion only. Please refer to the NWS or NHC for official forecasts.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.
I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.
But, overnight Wednesday could be different.
I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.
But, overnight Wednesday could be different.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
rwfromkansas wrote:I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.
I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.
But, overnight Wednesday could be different.
I would argue tomorrow could be the most dangerous. It will go below freezing tonight and if 20s by tomorrow morning and light precip occurs black ice/sleet would be an issue when most expects it Thursday.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.
I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.
But, overnight Wednesday could be different.
I would argue tomorrow could be the most dangerous. It will go below freezing tonight and if 20s by tomorrow morning and light precip occurs black ice would be an issue when most expects it Thursday.
Yep, more sporadic tomorrow so can go from dry 70 mph down the highway to an ice rink in a matter of a few miles
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.
I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.
But, overnight Wednesday could be different.
I would argue tomorrow could be the most dangerous. It will go below freezing tonight and if 20s by tomorrow morning and light precip occurs black ice would be an issue when most expects it Thursday.
Yep, more sporadic tomorrow so can go from dry 70 mph down the highway to an ice rink in a matter of a few miles
Schools better be cautious tomorrow, frz drizzle can easily set in during school hours
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.
I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.
But, overnight Wednesday could be different.
I would argue tomorrow could be the most dangerous. It will go below freezing tonight and if 20s by tomorrow morning and light precip occurs black ice/sleet would be an issue when most expects it Thursday.
Like the infamous day last year....
Some areas like where I live were fine. Others obviously not.
I am worried if we have drizzle tomorrow, it will be awful.
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- cheezyWXguy
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- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
rwfromkansas wrote:Ntxw wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.
I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.
But, overnight Wednesday could be different.
I would argue tomorrow could be the most dangerous. It will go below freezing tonight and if 20s by tomorrow morning and light precip occurs black ice/sleet would be an issue when most expects it Thursday.
Like the infamous day last year....
Some areas like where I live were fine. Others obviously not.
I am worried if we have drizzle tomorrow, it will be awful.
Yeah temperature is key. 30-32 isn't efficient but below 30 it freezes on contact almost. Any elevated roads don't stand much of a chance.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Snowman67 wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:My home weather station (Ponder) went from 34F at 930AM to 42F at 1230PM.
That's interesting.
Has Wxman57 been anywhere near your weather station? His residual heat has a way of doing things like that.
I don't think he travels this far north this time of year. Too cold for him.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Hi-Res WRF now picking up on a band moving through Metroplex before rush hour tomorrow, morning commute could be rough


Last edited by orangeblood on Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
HockeyTx82 wrote:Snowman67 wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:My home weather station (Ponder) went from 34F at 930AM to 42F at 1230PM.
That's interesting.
Has Wxman57 been anywhere near your weather station? His residual heat has a way of doing things like that.
I don't think he travels this far north this time of year. Too cold for him.
I can have a very broad reach across Texas. I notice that the shallow cold air is modifying quickly at DFW - up to 45 there now. Just a little freezing rain/sleet up there Wed/Thu then it's bye-bye winter weather for this season.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:Snowman67 wrote:
Has Wxman57 been anywhere near your weather station? His residual heat has a way of doing things like that.
I don't think he travels this far north this time of year. Too cold for him.
I can have a very broad reach across Texas. I notice that the shallow cold air is modifying quickly at DFW - up to 45 there now. Just a little freezing rain/sleet up there Wed/Thu then it's bye-bye winter weather for this season.
Only 16 degrees colder than forecast as recently as early this morning.
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Geez, check out the latest Euro ENS EPO forecast….good luck with that March warmup Wxman57
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1645488000-2vlYW%20wJfXycgrb2.png
the jet extension into the Pacific, as a result of the MJO, may have something to do with this. Not complaining!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Winter Storm Warning in effect for my area starting Tomorrow Morning 

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:orangeblood wrote:Geez, check out the latest Euro ENS EPO forecast….good luck with that March warmup Wxman57
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1645488000-2vlYW%20wJfXycgrb2.png
the jet extension into the Pacific, as a result of the MJO, may have something to do with this. Not complaining!
This has been showing up much of the past week on the ENs. Freakishly strong agreement for long range of AK ridge and better AO (natural seasonal weakening of PV). Suspect after moderation period we see some anomalous cold snap for March.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
FWD expands advisory southeastward but leaves the rest as is.
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Boo I'm ready for spring and thunderstorms. That thunder last Wednesday/Thursday spoiled me.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Winter Storm Warning here mentioning thunderstorms possible
up to an inch of sleet and a half inch of ice

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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:Snowman67 wrote:
Has Wxman57 been anywhere near your weather station? His residual heat has a way of doing things like that.
I don't think he travels this far north this time of year. Too cold for him.
I can have a very broad reach across Texas. I notice that the shallow cold air is modifying quickly at DFW - up to 45 there now. Just a little freezing rain/sleet up there Wed/Thu then it's bye-bye winter weather for this season.
Up to 45? It was just 38 there like 3 hours ago. That’s discouraging.
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