Texas Winter 2017-2018

[foulbeast]

Several people I know in the DFW area are ignoring the weather advisory because of what happened in the last one, and TV mets seem to be downplaying the system. Some small business owners telling their employees to plan on being at work, etc. I've told them that models are kind of backtracking and they need to really plan carefully. From what I see here many of you think it will be worse in DFW than "advisory" level with a few flurries?

If the NAM is correct, then the DFW would only see a dusting and impacts would be minimal, but the roads still could be very slick thanks to the cold temps. But if the HRRR is correct, parts of the area could easily see more than a dusting and the impacts would be more severe.

Later this afternoon, we'll have a better idea of what model has the right idea.

I thought I read an earlier post that said the HRRR initialized with the high pressure being weaker than actual which would lead to more precip. Is that still the case for the latest run?

[starsfan65]

Where is the cold front now?

[aggiecutter]

URL=http://s269.photobucket.com/user/Photo44_album/media/snow_zpsujf2l6t6.png.html][/URL]

[Ntxw]

Where is the cold front now?

Decatur's winds just switched northerly, Fort Worth is southerly

[iorange55]

Several people I know in the DFW area are ignoring the weather advisory because of what happened in the last one, and TV mets seem to be downplaying the system. Some small business owners telling their employees to plan on being at work, etc. I've told them that models are kind of backtracking and they need to really plan carefully. From what I see here many of you think it will be worse in DFW than "advisory" level with a few flurries?

If the NAM is correct, then the DFW would only see a dusting and impacts would be minimal, but the roads still could be very slick thanks to the cold temps. But if the HRRR is correct, parts of the area could easily see more than a dusting and the impacts would be more severe.

Later this afternoon, we'll have a better idea of what model has the right idea.

I thought I read an earlier post that said the HRRR initialized with the high pressure being weaker than actual which would lead to more precip. Is that still the case for the latest run?

You might be correct. I think at one point the NAM was too strong and the HRRR was too weak, so maybe a blend of the models will work best.

Also just realized NWS issued a winter storm warning as close as Ellis County. I'm about 5 miles from the dallas county/ellis county line...I can pretend I'm included in this warning, right?

[Browndog]

URL=http://s269.photobucket.com/user/Photo44_album/media/snow_zpsujf2l6t6.png.html]http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79/Photo44_album/snow_zpsujf2l6t6.png[/URL]

That looks a lot like I was talking about earlier with the higher ratios and a swath of 3-6". I think we're in the same boat, aggiecutter. I really think the big winner will be someone in southwest arkansas between el dorado and texarkana.

[CaptinCrunch]

The latest update from the NWS FTW office still has them thinking that the DFW area will see about .5" with 1-2" a little further to the SE and sleet and FRZ rain further south towards Waco.

I'm not forecasting anything, but gut feeling is the 1-2" area may expand back to the NW to include some of the metro area.

Tomorrow the models will have a better handle on things...

[Ntxw]

If the NAM is correct, then the DFW would only see a dusting and impacts would be minimal, but the roads still could be very slick thanks to the cold temps. But if the HRRR is correct, parts of the area could easily see more than a dusting and the impacts would be more severe.

Later this afternoon, we'll have a better idea of what model has the right idea.

I thought I read an earlier post that said the HRRR initialized with the high pressure being weaker than actual which would lead to more precip. Is that still the case for the latest run?

You might be correct. I think at one point the NAM was too strong and the HRRR was too weak, so maybe a blend of the models will work best.

Also just realized NWS issued a winter storm warning as close as Ellis County. I'm about 5 miles from the dallas county/ellis county line...I can pretend I'm included in this warning, right?

Yes a nice jog N a few miles and you are good! The winter storm warnings in the FW office are for a combination of ice and snow that works for their criteria. Think 0.25-0.50 of ice is warning. Not enough snow to actually be warning worthy which is 4" or greater

[missygirl810]

At this point I am so confused. I hear maybe a inch, freezing rain and sleet but when I look at this graphic, I am not even it lol. Maybe the kids will go to school maybe not lol

[WacoWx]

If the front is behind schedule, wouldn’t that bode well Fort he temp to drop quicker after sunset? Isn’t the front creating the lift for the precip? If it comes through later and we have the same precip chances, would the chance of the precip being frozen, longer, be greater?

[Browndog]

http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79/Photo44_album/snow_zpsujf2l6t6.png

At this point I am so confused. I hear maybe a inch, freezing rain and sleet but when I look at this graphic, I am not even it lol. Maybe the kids will go to school maybe not lol

This map is through 6a tomorrow morning. Most of central and south Texas will experience issues/accumulations after this time frame!

[Ntxw]

URL=http://s269.photobucket.com/user/Photo44_album/media/snow_zpsujf2l6t6.png.html]http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79/Photo44_album/snow_zpsujf2l6t6.png[/URL]

At this point I am so confused. I hear maybe a inch, freezing rain and sleet but when I look at this graphic, I am not even it lol. Maybe the kids will go to school maybe not lol

The storm last January put down 0.1" of snow at DFW for comparison

[JayDT]

If the NAM is correct, then the DFW would only see a dusting and impacts would be minimal, but the roads still could be very slick thanks to the cold temps. But if the HRRR is correct, parts of the area could easily see more than a dusting and the impacts would be more severe.

Later this afternoon, we'll have a better idea of what model has the right idea.

I thought I read an earlier post that said the HRRR initialized with the high pressure being weaker than actual which would lead to more precip. Is that still the case for the latest run?

You might be correct. I think at one point the NAM was too strong and the HRRR was too weak, so maybe a blend of the models will work best.

Also just realized NWS issued a winter storm warning as close as Ellis County. I'm about 5 miles from the dallas county/ellis county line...I can pretend I'm included in this warning, right?

Im about 10 miles from the Dallas County/Ellis County line & im also choosing to include myself in the warning

[cheezyWXguy]

I thought I read an earlier post that said the HRRR initialized with the high pressure being weaker than actual which would lead to more precip. Is that still the case for the latest run?

You might be correct. I think at one point the NAM was too strong and the HRRR was too weak, so maybe a blend of the models will work best.

Also just realized NWS issued a winter storm warning as close as Ellis County. I'm about 5 miles from the dallas county/ellis county line...I can pretend I'm included in this warning, right?

Yes a nice jog N a few miles and you are good! The winter storm warnings in the FW office are for a combination of ice and snow that works for their criteria. Think 0.25-0.50 of ice is warning. Not enough snow to actually be warning worthy which is 4" or greater

If the 18z HRRR sets a trend for the rest of the 18z suite I could see a slim possibility of them upping Dallas county to WSW, though probably not since there isn't much motivation not to be conservative right now. Whats interesting is that the band that is forecast to produce the 1-2" amounts to our SE has actually shifted a bit north on that 18z run. I dont understand why the snowfall totals look so low in DFW on the HRRR though, as it shows a couple of hours of precip falling before accumulations begin to show up. Maybe its because it is forecasting it as sleet/ice during that time?

[missygirl810]

Lol I am not in south Texas, although this year I wish I would have been. I am in Greenville. Its in Hunt Co

[missygirl810]

URL=http://s269.photobucket.com/user/Photo44_album/media/snow_zpsujf2l6t6.png.html]http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79/Photo44_album/snow_zpsujf2l6t6.png[/URL]

At this point I am so confused. I hear maybe a inch, freezing rain and sleet but when I look at this graphic, I am not even it lol. Maybe the kids will go to school maybe not lol

The storm last January put down 0.1" of snow at DFW for comparison

WOOHOO!!! LOL

[Ntxw]

You might be correct. I think at one point the NAM was too strong and the HRRR was too weak, so maybe a blend of the models will work best.

Also just realized NWS issued a winter storm warning as close as Ellis County. I'm about 5 miles from the dallas county/ellis county line...I can pretend I'm included in this warning, right?

Yes a nice jog N a few miles and you are good! The winter storm warnings in the FW office are for a combination of ice and snow that works for their criteria. Think 0.25-0.50 of ice is warning. Not enough snow to actually be warning worthy which is 4" or greater

If the 18z HRRR sets a trend for the rest of the 18z suite I could see a slim possibility of them upping Dallas county to WSW, though probably not since there isn't much motivation not to be conservative right now. Whats interesting is that the band that is forecast to produce the 1-2" amounts to our SE has actually shifted a bit north on that 18z run. I dont understand why the snowfall totals look so low in DFW on the HRRR though, as it shows a couple of hours of precip falling before accumulations begin to show up. Maybe its because it is forecasting it as sleet/ice during that time?

Yeah, the hrrr has been using some qpf at dfw for sleet and zr. Euro and CMC/RGEM is mostly snow.

NAM is still mostly dry at DFW, either it scores a coup or gets taken to the shed for NTX

[missygirl810]

Yes a nice jog N a few miles and you are good! The winter storm warnings in the FW office are for a combination of ice and snow that works for their criteria. Think 0.25-0.50 of ice is warning. Not enough snow to actually be warning worthy which is 4" or greater

If the 18z HRRR sets a trend for the rest of the 18z suite I could see a slim possibility of them upping Dallas county to WSW, though probably not since there isn't much motivation not to be conservative right now. Whats interesting is that the band that is forecast to produce the 1-2" amounts to our SE has actually shifted a bit north on that 18z run. I dont understand why the snowfall totals look so low in DFW on the HRRR though, as it shows a couple of hours of precip falling before accumulations begin to show up. Maybe its because it is forecasting it as sleet/ice during that time?

Yeah, the hrrr has been using some qpf at dfw for sleet and zr. Euro and CMC/RGEM is mostly snow.

NAM is still mostly dry at DFW, either it scores a coup or gets taken to the shed for NTX

I vote for the shed!!! I can get a paddle lol

[iorange55]

I really hope the NAM is wrong. It's almost time to start the radar watching, so we should know in a few hours which model takes home the trophy.

[LeonardRay]

Any Pro Mets on today? I havent seen the regulars chime in yet today