Texas Winter 2017-2018

[gpsnowman]

Where is the cold front currently? Quick post, I am at work.

[Shoshana]

I just saw that there was 189 guests a few mins ago.. I don’t remember seeing that many guests before.. Maybe there has been but I didn’t pay attention... Still a lot though lol

Hurricane posts get a lot more. Over 200 right now.

[TheProfessor]

The HRRR and HRRRX preformed very well with my last storm on Friday. A lot of the other mesoscale models had the deformation band weakening thus cutting snow totals to 2-3 inches. The HRRR, however showed the band regain strength and gave us 5-7 inches of snow, which is what we got. If it weren't for the wind cutting down ratios we could have gotten 7-9" but the wind made the storm fun.

[iorange55]

The HRRR and HRRRX preformed very well with my last storm on Friday. A lot of the other mesoscale models had the deformation band weakening thus cutting snow totals to 2-3 inches. The HRRR, however showed the band regain strength and gave us 5-7 inches of snow, which is what we got. If it weren't for the wind cutting down ratios we could have gotten 7-9" but the wind made the storm fun.

That's good to hear

[Browndog]

A colder/saturated upper air column leads to more efficient growth of snowflakes. This time around, we have a fairly cold upper air column, which leads to the higher ratios.

[weatherdude1108]

It's 62 degrees at the house at 1:20pm. Almost shorts weather. Beautiful!

Hard to believe a Winter storm is coming.

[davidiowx]

It's 62 degrees at the house at 1:20pm. Almost shorts weather. Beautiful!

Hard to believe a Winter storm is coming.

Welcome to Texas !

[TheProfessor]

A colder/saturated upper air column leads to more efficient growth of snowflakes. This time around, we have a fairly cold upper air column, which leads to the higher ratios.

The snow ratios could still be high, but the wind could lower it. Especially if 30 mph+ gust are happening often.

[iorange55]

Latest run of the HRRR appears to be even better for North Texas. Seems like it's going more toward what the HRRRX has been showing.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Several people I know in the DFW area are ignoring the weather advisory because of what happened in the last one, and TV mets seem to be downplaying the system. Some small business owners telling their employees to plan on being at work, etc. I've told them that models are kind of backtracking and they need to really plan carefully. From what I see here many of you think it will be worse in DFW than "advisory" level with a few flurries?

[Ntxw]

The scope of coverage (and growth over the years of the winter thread) has brought a lot of guests! In the past 75-100 guests was usually peak for a winter event. I bet the December snow event in S Texas created a lot of new winter wx enthusiasts young and old

[GeauxTigers]

Hi everyone! Been reading this board for couple years now, but first time to post. Really enjoy reading everyone's posts, hearing their insight on things, and adding their opinions based on experience. I don't know much on how to read models/charts, but have learned a lot just from reading ya'lls posts on this board. Thanks everyone for sharing all your knowledge and hope everyone gets to see some white stuff by tomorrow morning.....including us up here in north TX.

[Browndog]

"The snow ratios could still be high, but the wind could lower it. Especially if 30 mph+ gust are happening often."

I totally agree. Having near blizzard conditions while sacrificing an inch or so of accumulation would be worth it, though! I'll be up all night!

[Ntxw]

Several people I know in the DFW area are ignoring the weather advisory because of what happened in the last one, and TV mets seem to be downplaying the system. Some small business owners telling their employees to plan on being at work, etc. I've told them that models are kind of backtracking and they need to really plan carefully. From what I see here many of you think it will be worse in DFW than "advisory" level with a few flurries?

Its not so much that a ton will fall, it is the very cold temps that will maximize what falls to stick and blow around. Little melting if at all.

[iorange55]

Several people I know in the DFW area are ignoring the weather advisory because of what happened in the last one, and TV mets seem to be downplaying the system. Some small business owners telling their employees to plan on being at work, etc. I've told them that models are kind of backtracking and they need to really plan carefully. From what I see here many of you think it will be worse in DFW than "advisory" level with a few flurries?

If the NAM is correct, then the DFW would only see a dusting and impacts would be minimal, but the roads still could be very slick thanks to the cold temps. But if the HRRR is correct, parts of the area could easily see more than a dusting and the impacts would be more severe.

Later this afternoon, we'll have a better idea of what model has the right idea.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Turned mostly cloudy really fast and very strong north wind. Temp is also dropping pretty quickly

[Ntxw]

Hi everyone! Been reading this board for couple years now, but first time to post. Really enjoy reading everyone's posts, hearing their insight on things, and adding their opinions based on experience. I don't know much on how to read models/charts, but have learned a lot just from reading ya'lls posts on this board. Thanks everyone for sharing all your knowledge and hope everyone gets to see some white stuff by tomorrow morning.....including us up here in north TX.

Welcome! Glad you made the plunge to dive in with us! I think we all will see some snow!

[weatherdude1108]

It's 62 degrees at the house at 1:20pm. Almost shorts weather. Beautiful!

Hard to believe a Winter storm is coming.

Welcome to Texas !

Oh yeah. I've lived in Texas since 1976. All too familiar with the "bait & switch" weather patterns.

[jaguars_22]

Here in Victoria it looks like we will not get above freezing much until Thurs morning... Then if the GFS is correct we could see a low pressure come out of Mexico and surprise a lot of people... ex. Christmas eve 2004...

If that low moves quicker and gets here Wednesday evening it could be game on for southern Texas... NWS here is only saying .10 inch of ice... but could be .10 ice and 2 inches of sleet on top

[GeauxTigers]

Thanks Ntxw! I'm north of DFW, so I'm hoping so!