TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Extremeweatherguy]

The second, colder, surge of air has not reached you yet. Once it does expect things to go downhill quickly (with temps. dropping even further). Also, now that you are at 32-degrees, any precip. from this point foward should be of the frozen variety tonight. Still looks like an ice storm is very likely for the Dallas area tonight through Monday.

Luckily, just as we hit 32, the precip line moved past us. I see nothing else on radar coming this way.

Our forecast high was 31, we hit 36. That 5 degree error margin made all the difference in the world as far as our weather today.

There is a lot of moisture that will be riding up from the pacific tonight through early next week though, so you are not quite out of the woods with this one yet..

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west.gif

In fact, it looks like tomorrow could be quite icy up there.

[Stratosphere747]

"Will start freezing rain late Monday afternoon along the US 59 corridor from Victoria to Sugarland to Humble and then drop the line southward to Port Lavaca to Bay City to Angleton to Pasadena to Winnie by Tuesday morning"

im in angleton dose that mean ill see sum of this ice stuff?

Angleton is close enough to the coast that it may just make it though without seeing the icy conditions. Looks to be a borderline situation.

I doubt some of the young folks understand how bad a major ice event is. They might be "excited" at first, but take away the electronic age from them and it will go downhill quickly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

OK everyone. I'm thinking this ice storm in Texas is all EWG's fault for praying one too many times to the Weather Gods for winter precip.

great. so now I am being blamed for this? lol.

[TrekkerCC]

"Will start freezing rain late Monday afternoon along the US 59 corridor from Victoria to Sugarland to Humble and then drop the line southward to Port Lavaca to Bay City to Angleton to Pasadena to Winnie by Tuesday morning"

im in angleton dose that mean ill see sum of this ice stuff?

Angleton is close enough to the coast that it may just make it though without seeing the icy conditions. Looks to be a borderline situation.

I doubt some of the young folks understand how bad a major ice event is. They might be "excited" at first, but take away the electronic age from them and it will go downhill quickly.

Yes, I hope that my power does not go out from the glaze of ice that is likely to cover the area tomorrow. I wish we had a good coat of sleet/snow instead. I remember the February 14, 2004 snowstorm that dumped 3"-5" of snow in North Texas. Of course, it quickly melted (which seems to be what usually happens when a North Texas snowstorm happens, but it is always pretty), but sleet and snow is more manageable.

[Stratosphere747]

No question Trekker. I received right at a foot of snow here just outside of Angleton from the 04 event and had no problem getting around town to look at the sights.

Ice? Don’t want, don't need it, and have about as much fear of it as a hurricane heading my way.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS continues to show a major winter storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
^^Mon. Afternoon^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml
^^Tues. Morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
^^Tues. Afternoon^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
^^Wed. Morning^^

This is not good news for anyone expecting a last minute change in the forecast.

[tano68]

Hi all!

Two quick questions, please! One, I'm in Friendswood. Will the freezing/ice line reach us? And two, my husband is scheduled to leave IAH airport Monday evening. I'm concerned, but of course he's not . What kind of conditions will he expect driving? Or do you think he will even be able to?

Thanks abunch & keep up the great work!

[ROCK]

Hi all!

Two quick questions, please! One, I'm in Friendswood. Will the freezing/ice line reach us? And two, my husband is scheduled to leave IAH airport Monday evening. I'm concerned, but of course he's not . What kind of conditions will he expect driving? Or do you think he will even be able to?

Thanks abunch & keep up the great work!

I would say yes but probably Monday am into Tuesday night. I am near Hobby and I expect freezing rain here.

Driving will be bad if this plays out. IAH it will be even worse. Flying out won't be the issue. Getting to the airport will....good luck

[D_bird]

I just took a short walk around my house here in Paradise (Wise County, northwest of DFW Area).

There is about a quarter inch of ice on the trampoline, about 1/16th to 1/8th of an inch on tree branches and fences. Main St. was just fine, it looked a little damp but no ice so far... But the is quite a bit of ice on grass around the house right now.

I look for the next round to be quite significant for our area as temps have been around 28 all day long.

TexasStooge, AFM or anyone else, When will this next round of precipitation start for North Texas?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Brenham is already down to 39-degrees! This is 4-degrees colder than their forecast low for tonight.

Makes me wonder if other overnight lows will bust tonight.

BTW: They are also reporting "thunderstorm snow" in Brenham, but I highly doubt that is an accurate report with the upper atmosphere so warm.

[jeff]

I just took a short walk around my house here in Paradise (Wise County, northwest of DFW Area).

There is about a quarter inch of ice on the trampoline, about 1/16th to 1/8th of an inch on tree branches and fences. Main St. was just fine, it looked a little damp but no ice so far... But the is quite a bit of ice on grass around the house right now.

I look for the next round to be quite significant for our area as temps have been around 28 all day long.

TexasStooge, AFM or anyone else, When will this next round of precipitation start for North Texas?

Onset of next round of ZR should be after midnight as upper jet streak over Big Bend heads into C and N TX supplying the lift. As long as the rainfall is not very heavy significant glazing should occur. Should the rain be real heavy it may drag down some of the warmer air above pushing the surface temp up some. Should not be a big deal for those in the upper 20's, but something to consider for those folks in the 30-32 range.

[jeff]

Hi all!

Two quick questions, please! One, I'm in Friendswood. Will the freezing/ice line reach us? And two, my husband is scheduled to leave IAH airport Monday evening. I'm concerned, but of course he's not . What kind of conditions will he expect driving? Or do you think he will even be able to?

Thanks abunch & keep up the great work!

Should see the onset of ZR late Monday night or early Tuesday AM in Friendswood. ZR should be ongoing over N Harris County be late afternoon, so getting to IAH could be a problem. Expect long delays and some flights to be cancelled with rigorous de-icing operations in effect.

[Tireman4]

We are still waiting in Humble. 69.6 degrees. The slow march of the roller coaster continues. Thanks Jeff for all you do. Your forecasts of Katrina and Rita were spot on.

[jeff]

"Will start freezing rain late Monday afternoon along the US 59 corridor from Victoria to Sugarland to Humble and then drop the line southward to Port Lavaca to Bay City to Angleton to Pasadena to Winnie by Tuesday morning"

im in angleton dose that mean ill see sum of this ice stuff?

Angleton is close enough to the coast that it may just make it though without seeing the icy conditions. Looks to be a borderline situation.

I doubt some of the young folks understand how bad a major ice event is. They might be "excited" at first, but take away the electronic age from them and it will go downhill quickly.

Borderline call for the coastal counties as the ZR line should pull up over them at some point...but where. Will not dismiss the threat of ZR all the way to the Gulf as secondary surge of arctic CAA overtakes the region Monday. Tough call on this one and I will let some of the other mets weigh in.

[ROCK]

yep , BIG props to Jeff on this one....nailed it so far. Your also getting some run over on the KHOU board..Your a celebrity..

[tano68]

Thankyou Rock & Jeff!

Because of you guys & this board, I've done all my preps today! If I would have listened to some of the local mets & the weather channel, ect...I never would have known how bad it could get.

Too bad for the rest of the people that don't have a clue, I feel sorry for them

[jeff]

yep , BIG props to Jeff on this one....nailed it so far. Your also getting some run over on the KHOU board..Your a celebrity..

Just telling it like I see it. I may bust on the accumulation part as that is a crap shoot even a few hours in advance....as we have seen many times to our friends up in N TX.

This week has been a classic case of relying on forecast models and either not thinking for ones self or not understanding the models lack of knowledge of cold dense arctic air masses. AS AFM as siad when it is -50 in NW Canada and the pattern is as it is...it is coming south and not much is going to stop it and in Jan with snow cover not much is going to modify it.

[KatDaddy]

Hey Jeff I hope you don't mind me posting your latest SE TX post over at the KHOU board. You have done a very good job as always. As much as I hope your forecast is worst case scenario and does not occur; its concerning with your previous track records over the years being very good.

[hurrican19]

Look at the forecast variations from the 3 local stations in Beaumont/Port Arthur area. Anyone willing to bet that someone is going to bust, and bust majorly? (NOTE: Probably won't be KFDM)

KBMT-12 (http://www.kbmt12.com)


KBTV-4 (http://www.kbtv4.tv)


KFDM-6 (http://www.kfdm.com)


National Weather Service (Orange County, TX)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow! That KBTV-4 forecast is just downright horrible! That will bust by at least 10 degrees for the highs. That may be one of the worst forecasts I have ever seen actually.

I think the other 2 stations have a much more sensible forecast for the Beaumont area.