Any signs of a pattern change?

[jasons2k]

hey guys im new here so dont rip me a new one if you disagree with me please but i just wanted to throw some stuff in here, i too have been reading JB's for about 4 years now and other than his dibacle of a forecast last winter i think hes done an awesome job, also anyone who believes this pattern will stick right through the rest of winter and it will consistantly be warm might be more -removed- than anything. I have been reading this board since I found it a month ago along with other boards and it seems that when there is a pattern shift everybody wants to jump on it and scream COLDEST WINTER EVER or WARMEST WINTER EVER because if we all look back to just a month ago how many media outlets and message boards were saying that the cold pattern would last forever? and now those same people are saying warm forever. Sometimes I think long range forecasting falls turns into a situation like people being bandwagon fans in sports. They ride it until the wheels fall off and they say, o wait I was saying the other way. The reason we had the pattern change back in December was in part because the airmass between the arctic i guess u could call it and the US had become fairly uniform which helped level out the trough in the east and the ridge in the west, and yes i do know there were other factors like the NAO going positive and such. But as the arctic and Canada grows colder because the ridiculously cold air from Asia has started and will continue to trickle into that area once again we will see the temperature gradient in the latitudes (or is it longitudes? i dont remember) will increase and since nature doesnt like these huge stratifications the cold air will have essentially no place to go but into the US. Where? no idea. How much cold air? no idea. Eventually cold air is going to flood southward it might just not be what us winter weather lovers are looking for.

Hello - and welcome to the board!!

Yes, you are right, the pattern does have to change sometime. Nothing lasts forever. At the same time, persistence can be a useful tool in forecasting. Just last week, the NWS in DFW was debating a wet vs. dry solution in their forecast discussion and the forecaster said "the drier solution has worked for the past year now so we will use it for this forecast as well"....and they were right. Sometimes you just have to go with the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" mentality.

But I agree with your summary, there is some cold air now and it will eventually come south, but by the time it gets its act together it probably won't be anything special.

I'm getting tired now and probably not making much sense.....see you guys manana.

[mike815]

lol yes it will change but spring isnt that far away either

[EDR1222]

It will be interesting to see if there is a pattern change and what it might mean for the Southeast U.S. We have had some cold air the past couple of weekends. Still no freezes here in east Central Florida, although I think some colder pockets probably reached 32 last weekend. Nevertheless, we have had a few nights into the mid 30's and some scattered frost reported in some areas.

[Portastorm]

Important to point out that both 0z and 12z runs of today's NCEP ensembles show a more persistent trough setting up show over the Rockies into the Plains. Should this verify, it's gotta mean cooler (even colder at times) temps and better shots at precip.

Of course I have to add the proverbial caveat: if the model runs verify!

I'm really thinking this current pattern may be done shortly. Hopefully!

Oh, here is the link to the runs:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/targ/hgtmenu.html

[jasons2k]

well JB is not always wrong you know. Also, it is not just me who sees the "possibility" of a major cold snap late in the month, there are many people that I have also heard predict this same type of scenario. Also, this scenario is not all that extreme. Just because it doesn't normally happen doesn't mean that it won't happen this winter. I am not saying that this WILL happen, I just think that there is an increased threat and that we should be ready if it does happen. In all truthfulness I can't wait until winter is over so that we can get into severe weather season and hurricane season, but it looks like we still will have a couple of months to wait as the pattern will be changing.

I agree with you 100%.

I never said JB was always wrong. Pretty much all I've said about him is that he does tend to overexaggerate things, which he does. I've been reading him since 1998. I've learned a LOT by reading his columns, and there have been many times when he forecasted colder temps for us than anyone else - and he was right. However, more often than not, he is on the extreme side. I've seen him forecast ice/snow to the I-10 corridor in Texas probably a dozen times since I've been reading him and it's materialized maybe once (last year, which was a good call on his part).

Maybe I was too harsh on you earlier and for that I apologize.

And I'm with ya on being ready for winter to be over. We're too far south to get excited about much during winter. I'm definitely ready for the spring storm season, it's an amazing time of year.

[mike815]

yes thats when it gets very interesting down here

[MGC]

We are only four weeks into winter, so winter is roughly one-third over. To suggest that the present warm pattern will endure the entire winter is a bit far fetched IMO. I would not rule out a rather lenghty strech of cold come latter January or Feb. The coldest strech of weather America has ever endured occured in mid Feb 1899.......MGC

[Tyler]

To go back in time to February 1899 would be something. The stories I've heard from that month are incredible. February 1899 defines what an arctic outbreak truly is.

[jasons2k]

We are only four weeks into winter, so winter is roughly one-third over. To suggest that the present warm pattern will endure the entire winter is a bit far fetched IMO. I would not rule out a rather lenghty strech of cold come latter January or Feb. The coldest strech of weather America has ever endured occured in mid Feb 1899.......MGC

Actually, I was looking at NWS New Orleans to see when winter bottoms out over there, and the lowest averages for your area occur from January 11th-17th, then begin to rise. Winter is now more than 1/2 way over based on the averages (not the calendar).

[LarryWx]

We are only four weeks into winter, so winter is roughly one-third over. To suggest that the present warm pattern will endure the entire winter is a bit far fetched IMO. I would not rule out a rather lenghty strech of cold come latter January or Feb. The coldest strech of weather America has ever endured occured in mid Feb 1899.......MGC

I agree that there is plenty of winter to go. I especially am curious about what FEB may have in store. However, it is also true that we are currently at about the midpoint of "meteorological winter", the coldest three month period on average.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We are only four weeks into winter, so winter is roughly one-third over. To suggest that the present warm pattern will endure the entire winter is a bit far fetched IMO. I would not rule out a rather lenghty strech of cold come latter January or Feb. The coldest strech of weather America has ever endured occured in mid Feb 1899.......MGC

I agree that there is plenty of winter to go. I especially am curious about what FEB may have in store. However, it is also true that we are currently at about the midpoint of "meteorological winter", the coldest three month period on average.

yeah, but just because it is on average the coldest point of the winter, that really does not mean much. In fact, this nations coldest outbreak EVER occured in mid February 1899 when it was cold enough for ice flows to reach the gulf and parts of galveston bay to freeze over. That was also when Tallahassee, FL hit -2 degrees! So just because it looks like winter is slowly ending...don't let your guard down until March, or even in your case in Georgia...April. I remember living in Raleigh, NC and it snowing in mid April before!

[LarryWx]

yeah, but just because it is on average the coldest point of the winter, that really does not mean much. In fact, this nations coldest outbreak EVER occured in mid February 1899 when it was cold enough for ice flows to reach the gulf and parts of galveston bay to freeze over. That was also when Tallahassee, FL hit -2 degrees! So just because it looks like winter is slowly ending...don't let your guard down until March, or even in your case in Georgia...April. I remember living in Raleigh, NC and it snowing in mid April before!

Yep, those are just averages and I am aware of some of the harshest Arctic outbreaks of all time deep into the south all the way into middle FEB and some snows all the way into April. Atlanta had over 1" snow on 4/25/1910!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Yea, I recall some spring breaks down here that were pretty wintery. The would be usually the second or third weeks in March.

[Portastorm]

Several winter weather events here in Austin -- in recent memory -- have happened during late January into early February. There's a good 4-6 weeks of potential winter left here for south central Texas.

[jasons2k]

Snowed around (mostly W and SW) DFW last year on Easter, so yeah just about anything can happen. I really hope winter is over by Easter though...that's a bit late for me.