Pacific Northwest Weather

[AnthonyC]

That would be awesome R-Dub!! I was only in 4th grade at the time, so I didn't really watch the news...although I was already fascinated with weather. I never forget December 26, 1996. I started snowing about 10 am and lasted ALL DAY!! My family and I went to a Chinese restaurant for lunch that day and while we were there, they had to close the restaurant and send everyone home because the snow was getting deep and it was like a blizzard outside. And another thing about Q-13 news...they are ALL complete jokes. Walter Kelley is the poorest excuse for a meteorologist I've ever seen...he couldn't predict weather if his life depended on it. And he ALWAYS has a bias...if models show a trend toward cooler weather, he makes it seem like an arctic outbreak is just around the corner...if the models are hinting at a heatwave, he has afternoon temperatures at 100+ F in downtown Seattle. I'm very interested in Saturday night...TT-SEA, since you seem to be the most realistic/trusted person when it comes to snow, what do you think?! Any chance we'll start as snow?!

Anthony

Currently 27 F, dewpoint 21 F.

[R-Dub]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 940 AM PST FRI JAN 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP JUST THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW AND POSSIBLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. THAT SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. &&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE BETWEEN 130W-140W IS BEING UNDERCUT BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH NEAR 35N/140W. LOOKS LIKE ABOUT ONE MORE DAY OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE THE WARM FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZING OFFSHORE MOVES IN. NO CHANGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND DRY AIR/COLD TEMPERATURES. FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING APPEARS TO BE AN UNPREDICTABLE MIXED BAG OF RAIN...SNOW...AND OR FREEZING RAIN. MODELS AGREE ON RAPID WARMING AROUND 850 MB SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. HOWEVER...SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE UP FOR GRABS AND ARE A CRITICAL FACTOR IN DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. ETA MOS IS WARMER WITH LOWER 40S MAXES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH ARGUES FOR RAIN. 12Z GFS MOS HAS COOLED TO 38 FOR SEA-TAC WHICH GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...IS IN REACH OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS TO START THE EVENT. NO QUESTION THAT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WHATCOM COUNTY WHERE OUR ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRASER VALLEY OUTFLOW KEEPS THEM COLDER. WILL LET CURRENT FORECAST RIDE THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE QPF IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE EVENT...SINCE THIS FACTOR...IN ADDITION TO SURFACE TEMP/DEW POINT WILL SPELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A WINTER STORM WATCH (WHICH SHOULD GO OUT THIS AFTERNOON)...AND AN ADVISORY. IF THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WOULD STILL NEED TO ISSUE A STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FREEZING RAIN. EXTENDED...12Z GFS FOLLOWS TREND OF RECENT GFS RUNS IN KEEPING THE AREA UNDER WARM AND WET WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK...FROM MONDAY ON. GFS SOLUTION WITH HEAVY OROGRAPHIC PRECIP OVER WESTERN WA POINTS TO POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING. ECMWF SOLUTION DISPLACES MAIN PRECIP FURTHER NORTH. CURRENT RAIN LIKELY FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE A GOOD FIT. KAM

[TT-SEA]

R-Dub... no idea how to convert VHS tapes. Probably need special equipment.

Anthony... this is a marginal event at best south of Everett. Maybe a short period of snow and/or freezing rain but mostly just rain. Nothing to get excited about. Its just not cold enough prior to this event. Last year's event was significantly colder.

Sunday will be very warm compared to recent days though.

[TT-SEA]

R-Dub -

check it out...

http://www.pcstats.com/articleview.cfm?articleID=813

[R-Dub]

I could also just make copys of the tapes, and mail them to you guys, though converting it to files would also be a good thing, and quicker. I have been meaning to do something like this, because VHS tapes start to fail after 10yrs.
If some techy out there knows how to do it let me know.

[R-Dub]

Cool thanks TT! As soon as I get back home later today, I will take a close look at that site!

[TT-SEA]

Awesome... I would also pay for shipping costs if you have to make a copy. I think watching that coverage would be so interesting.

Particularly since I was not living here during that event.

[andrewr]

R-Dub, do you have a digital video camera and a firewire connection on your computer? If so then you may beable to capture the footage to your computer without any special equipment. Just connect your VCR into your digital video camera (if your camera has this option) and capture it into your computer that way.

[AnthonyC]

I was doing a little research, and February can be an awesome month for the lowlands. Actually, the month of February is notorious for arctic outbreaks. They may not last as long as outbreaks in December and January, but they can be extreme. You can expect anything from a cold, arctic blast to a warm, pineapple express. Just to add, March can also be an interesting month, particularly the first half. So we still have at least 8 weeks left of winter. Latest guidance suggests a possible trough over the Pacific Northwest beginning January 23...granted, it's nothing like past two troughs we've been under, but at least it's not warm and dry. 500 mb heights are at a marginal 532. And concerning the possible pineapple express next week...I wouldn't jump the gun just yet. GFS models have a difficult time with pattern changes...they are usually too extreme. So although a warmer/wetter pattern is almost inevitable, I don't think we'll get a pineapple express with snow levels at 9k. That would plainly suck!!

Anthony

[Brian_from_bellingham]

NWS and HPC are also not completely sold on a major pineapple express, the question is where will the jetstream point to, us or BC? They do seem to agree there will be at least some good rain though.

I know I have said this before, but I do remember the major arctic outbreak on or about Feb. 1, 1989. There were 100MPH gusts in Whatcom County, and the temp here got down to the very low single digits, perhaps even to zero in some places. We did not get much snow then, but did get a good snow about a month later. Also, it does seem like over the last 10 years or so there were times when we were cool in late January and flirted a bit with snow and arctic air. That would be about 2-3 weeks from now, which would seem to fit the patterns of flip flopping every 2-3 weeks. I also dont think we are done yet with the cold.

[AnthonyC]

Another interesting arcticle posted by Scott Sistek from Komo 4. Unfortunately, his...and granted model...forecasts haven't done well these past few weeks. Here's a brief summary if you're too lazy to go over to the website and read the arcticle...

Portland/Vancouver Area: Freezing rain and snow from Saturday morning through evening...local accumulations of snow...moderate ice accumulation. Could be extremely dangerous down there, but it doesn't look as bad as January of 2004.

WA/OR Coast: Plain ol' rain. Could briefly start as a rain/snow mix...but nothing significant.

Southwest Interior of WA: Aside from the areas located next to the Columbia Gorge, nothing significant. Could briefly start as rain/snow mix, but quickly change to rain.

Central Puget Sound (Tacoma-Everett): Could briefly begin as snow with local accumulations...esp. areas protected from wind. Changeover to freezing rain that may last a few hours, then rain by late Saturday evening, possibly Saturday night if you live in wind-protected regions.

Hood Canal/Kitsap: (By the way, I'm not buying this forecast for this area.) Snow...local accumulations 4+ inches. Changeover to freezing rain and then rain by early Sunday morning. They say arctic air will get trapped at the surface, but they've predicted this once before this winter and it has never materialized. You need a solid, arctic airmass over Western Washington to get this situation. We'll see, but for now I'm not buying 4+ inches of snow.

Northwest Interior: Best shot for significant snow...3-6 inches, primarily confined to Whatcom County...particulary Western Whatcom County. Snow should begin by early evening and last a majority of the night...that is if the Frazer winds continue. Really not changeover to freezing rain, just plain ol' rain. But accumulations could be significant.

Cascade Foothills: Interesting forecast here. In the intial stages, the area could escape precipitation with a strong easterly wind and extremely low dewpoints. But the cold air will stay longer over this region...so expect a brief bout of "light" snow, then substantial freezing rain. Could be a big problem. Probably one of the last areas to completely scour out the cold air....not until Sunday morning.

All in all, interesting forecast. We've seen it many times before...usually the best way to get winter weather in the lowlands. Unfortunately, there's not a true, arctic airmass over Western Washington. But I'll take anything at this point.

Anthony

Currently 31 F, dewpoint 16 F. Light NE breeze.

[andycottle]

Viewing todays GFS...it appears that we maybe could still get some snow late sunday evening during the 00z to 06 period as the freezing level will still be rather low. But looking the 500MB level...heights are running 550 to 552DM during this time. 850MB heights are 1410 to 1430M and temp near 0C. 700MB heights appearing to be 1300 to 1330M or slightly higher along with humidity being 90% or better. So maybe an inch or two of snow for my area. 17th - 23rd looking pretty rainy with heavy rain at times, due to a nice West to SW flow that will bring abundent moisture to the PNW. Am not seeing a decent breaks in the precip through the next work week and into the weekend. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Anthony is correct! We can get some really good cold in Feb and March. Like he says, the duration isn't quite as long, but we can get some great snow accumulations! I know Feb of 93 was a great month for cold, also 01 was a good yr. The end of Jan and the first part of Feb of 1996 were very cold, and I think we managed about 6" if I remember right. There are many others when I was younger as well. Another thing in our favor is just looking at the PNA over the last several months, we have only stayed positive for short periods, then it goes negitive rather quickly, and looking at the PNA forecast this trend is continuing.

Well I don't have a digital video camera, just a digital camera. wish I did! I should upgrade soon. I am thinking that I will just copy the tapes to another tape. Whoever wants one, just let me know. I will try and start doing this on the weekend, it will be cool to watch them all again!

[R-Dub]

Well I have just about made it to freezing.
Anthony, I noticed in Scotts discussion he mentions all areas exept the area North of Everett, and south of Whatcom co. Do you think my chances of winter weather are better then Everett south, or the same. I think the best thing that can happen is a good cloud cover tomarrow to trap cold air and hold it longer, we shall see.

1/14/05 LK Goodwin WA
1:10:24 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 31.8
Humidity (%) 62.2
Wind (mph) NNW 0.7
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.44
Dew Point: 21.1 ºF

[AnthonyC]

Special Weather Statement just posted by NWS. It briefly mentions freezing rain/snow throughout Western Washington, until a changeover to rain occurs later in the evening on Saturday.

R-Dub,

I do think your chance at snow is greater north of Everett, but nothing significant. Unless you're directly in Whatcom County, Frazer winds won't have an impact. Another thing to keep track of is the possible rainshadow over your area. With a strong SSW flow aloft, Stanwood tends to favor the rainshadow. But, if the component switches to a due southerly direction, you should miss it. This is definitely going to be a "wait-and-see" kind of event. It won't be a widespread, lowland snow event...one place may see 1-3 inches of snow, but just 15 miles away it's raining. Depends on how cold areas get tonight, and if they're in a wind-protected area. I just wish Mother Nature would give us a solid, lowland snow event. I'm tired of these 50/50 events. They never favor us.

Anthony

Currently 32 F, dewpoint 24 F.

[andycottle]

My current weather is as follows as of 1:32pm.

Sky... mostly sunny with a few high clouds
Temp: 35.4
DP: 18
Humidity: 50%
Baro: 30.24 and slowly falling

-- Andy

[R-Dub]

A whopping 6 degrees currently at Mansfield, and 9 degrees in Ephrata!

[andycottle]

How bout tring -14F degrees at Malmstorm AirForce Base, MT as of 255pm MST....elevation 3527ft. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Looks like we reached our high of 31 today, its been slowly dropping, now down to 30.0 degrees. Tonight should be the coldest night of the yr!

[AnthonyC]

Down to 30 F, dewpoint 19 F. Some high clouds in the sky, which my prohibit biterally cold temperatures tonight. We'll see. Still a solid NE wind.