Series of Storms to affect the West with more Snow/rain/win

[Metalicwx220]

My internet sucks can even post the whole thing. Anyways i think the gfs is to agressive with the cold air. thats the rest below.

[Metalicwx220]

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE UNSTABLE AT THE TIME SO EVEN A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE SETUPS WHERE WE GET A DUSTING OF SMALL HAIL OR SNOW OVER THE HILLS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE POSITION OF THE LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PACIFIC ENDS UP BEING...WE WILL EITHER SEE JUST A COOL AND MOSTLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY OR ANOTHER GOOD ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA (WITH A BIGGER FOCUS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO). OPERATIONAL GFS GOES WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION ALTHOUGH A BIG CHUNK OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE SIDING MORE WITH THE WET OPERATIONAL ECMWF. KEPT POPS GOING IN THE 45-60% RANGE FOR NOW TO REFLECT SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO OUR AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROF MOVES TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROF DIVES...THE RAIN WILL EITHER DIRECTLY HIT US OR HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT TO THE SOUTH. BOTTOM LINE...MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER.

[Metalicwx220]

LOL XD the gfs may be way to agressive with the cold air. lol TWC doesn't have snow in the forecasts for seattle until sunday next week lol. Portland has all rain forecast lol. Anyways 1-2 feet of snow in the cascades.

[Metalicwx220]

IM confused now. the nam has snow at 48 hours in Seattle and portland to along with the gfs. IS there something the models are not picking up or will they change the forecast at the last second. I need someones analysis.

[Metalicwx220]

The nam also has the los angeles and san francisco snow at 84 hours. I think something wrong.

[Metalicwx220]

0z Nam showing the same as the post above. I think again that the Nam and Gfs are too agreesive with the cold air because i don't think its going to snow in 84 hours in San francisco. well nevermind the Cmc nd ukmet have it as well. Mann.. Is it really going to snow in 4 days in San francisco and snow in Seattle and portland in 48 hours? No ones Nws is mentioning it.

[brunota2003]

Perhaps there is an onshore flow that will keep a thin warm layer on the surface that would melt the snow?

[Metalicwx220]

No change in the models still have the snow and apparently it will snow tomorrow in seattle . Model forecast probably are not with the warm air along the shore.

[somethingfunny]

I was in Sacramento the second week of December 2009, when it actually did snow there. Where we were staying near the city center close to sea level at the valley's bottom, there was a dusting of slush on the windshields of parked vehicles. There was no dusting of white on the ground, and you had to go up a few hundred feet, in the Eastern foothills near Auburn and ElDorado Hills, to find any accumulations. The local media made a huge deal out of it - apparently that slushy dusting was the first accumulating snow in Sacramento for 30 years!

We drove up US 50 until it was closed to cars without chains past Placerville, so we spent the day in Placerville (elevation 1500 or so) which was covered in an all-time record snowfall of 18" and was without power. Later that week in San Francisco, I saw/felt/heard some sleet briefly mixing in with a passing shower, at an elevation of a few hundred feet within the city.

The point I'm trying to make here is that sea-level snowfalls in California are RARE, and I wouldn't believe it until I see it.

[Metalicwx220]

114 hours. Watever! OMG its gonna snow in los angeles.

[Metalicwx220]

IM not even going into long range.

[Metalicwx220]

Ohh by the way Im using my ps3 internet so thats why the image above is like that.

[Metalicwx220]

162 hours

[BigB0882]

Clearly both the NAM and the GFS have a lot of kinks to work out in their snow depth maps. I have seen them miss time and time again this winter. The NAM had snow in many parts of Louisiana right up until the 0 hour and it never snowed anywhere around. They sniff out events but the models are really bad at knowing exactly where the cut off will be for snow and they seem to be really bad at sniffing out warm layers that may result in sleet, freezing rain or just rain.

[fogbreath]

Wow, we just had some of the white stuff fall here in San Francisco!

Well, okay, it was only piddly pellet-size hail, but it was fun to see it fall for the 90 sec. or so it did outside the office windows.

[vbhoutex]

Wow that is unusual.
One thing to think about with the models showing accumulation and/or snow depths is that they don't do a good job with the details of elevation when it is in an area like CA where within some of the cities one can go from almost sea level to several hundred feet elevation within a mile or so. That is why I would take the models for that with a grain of salt, they just can't be that detailed. IOW those snow depths etc. are painted with a very broad brush.

[Metalicwx220]

Seattle has rain snow mix in the forecast tonight-friday.

[Metalicwx220]

Issued by The National Weather Service
Seattle/Tacoma, WA
1:15 pm PST, Wed., Feb. 16, 2011

... SHOWERS WILL LOCALLY DRAG SNOW LEVELS TO THE SURFACE IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS ARE ROTATING ONSHORE AROUND A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW... HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE DRAGGING THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING GAVE SOME SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR LOWLANDS FROM LEWIS COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AT 1 PM... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM HOQUIAM AIRPORT AND A REPORT FROM THE GRAYS HARBOR EMERGENCY MANAGER INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS WERE FALLING DOWN TO SEA LEVEL IN HOQUIAM AND ABERDEEN... AND ARE GIVING BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS... INCLUDING ON ROADWAYS.

THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY. SPOTTY BRIEF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

[Metalicwx220]

Issued by The National Weather Service
Medford, OR
9:56 am PST, Wed., Feb. 16, 2011

... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 1500 FEET...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 1500 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY EXCEPT 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE KALMIOPSIS WILDERNESS AREA.

* ELEVATION: SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET TODAY WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS AS LOW AS 1000 FEET DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS.

* TIMING: SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS: SNOW MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON HIGHWAY 42... ESPECIALLY NEAR CAMAS MOUNTAIN... HIGHWAY 101 AND INTERSTATE 5 AT CANYON CREEK PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Where is medford elevation at? they have all snow in the forecast tonight and tommorow.

[Metalicwx220]

Issued by The National Weather Service
Portland, OR
2:08 pm PST, Wed., Feb. 16, 2011

... SHOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MORE BROKEN UP AND DISCRETE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE EASED THE THREAT OF SNOW TO THE VALLEY FLOORS... THOUGH A HEAVIER SHOWER COULD YET PROVIDE SOME BRIEF ACCUMULATION TO LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GENERAL NATURE OF THE CURRENT AIR MASS OVER THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING COULD EASILY DROP THE SNOW LEVEL TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS OR NEAR SEA LEVEL AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AT ELEVATIONS FROM AROUND 500 TO 1000 FEET AND ABOVE IS EASILY POSSIBLE FROM THESE SHOWERS. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWERS WILL EXIST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOOR... BUT SOME ACCUMULATION TO NEAR SEA LEVEL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF SNOW IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED ON FRIDAY... THOUGH A LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND THE COAST RANGE AS IT HEADS SOUTH.

THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE TO BE PREPARED FOR LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.