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GFS 12 UTC 60 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
GFS 12 UTC 66 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml
GFS 12 UTC 72 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
Moderator: S2k Moderators
srainhoutx wrote:Additional RECON now scheduled...
000
NOUS42 KNHC 241615
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EST FRI 24 DECEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z DECEMBER 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-024
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. A65/ DROP 14 (29.0N 89.0W)/ 26/0000Z
B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK65
C. 25/1545Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED PLUS 4 ADDITIONAL
EQUALLY-SPACED ONES OVER GULF OF MEXICO
ON TRACK FOR A TOTAL OF 14.
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/0200Z
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. A64/ DROP 12 (30.3N 75.0W)/ 26/1200Z
B. AFXXX 06WSA TRACK64
C. 26/0515Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK PLUS ADDITIONAL
ONES BETWEEN ORIGINAL DROPS 1 AND 2 AND
ORIGINAL DROPS 9 AND 10 FOR A TOTAL OF 12.
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/1400Z
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: TASKING REQUIREMENT IN WSPOD 10-023 NOW
CHANGED TO A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 25/1200Z WITH
TAKEOFF TIME OF 25/0700Z.
SEF
ronjon wrote:12Z GFS a real shocker as it looked as though guidance was trending more offshore. Perhaps the Euros runs the last few days will come true. Be watching the models intently as we're flying into BWI tomorrow afternoon. I also noticed that the GFS slows the storm way down east of Delaware and south of Long Island - just meanders about for 12 to 24 hrs.
INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC
QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN
BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY
RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC
PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH
THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME
MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH ALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.
THIS APPROACH DISREGARDS THE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER AND WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z NAM WHICH LIES
NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW.
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