When will we see more Arctic Cold?

[srainhoutx]

Yeah David, mine as well. The 1958 analog is also rather interesting for TX as well.

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: Yeah David, mine as well. The 1958 analog is also rather interesting for TX as well.

Well, I didn't see that initially, but that raises my eyebrows another notch! That is when we had 2" of snow in Gulf Breeze, FL. I have a picture of me standing out in it with my astronaut helmet on. LOL!!

[mrgolf]

Srainhoustx,i read your post a fewminutes ago about the potential patternchange back to cold weather.I wanted to ask you a question.Do we want that much of a +pna for us?I really dont want to see the storm track suppressed.Ive heard about the -nao/ao couplet.Would that be good enough to give us our fair share of winterstorm chances you think?WE had a good setup last week for our area with a high over montana that slid slowly southeast through the plains.I believe if the high would have been a little further west and tracked further south,then yall would have been pounded also.

[srainhoutx]

A +PNA could certainly have an affect on storm tracks. As we saw in December/early January, a rather stout +PNA West ridge displaced a lot of near record cold into much of the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. While the ensembles have not suggested that stout of a +PNA at this time, the Greenland Blocking pattern as well as -AO/-NOA look very similar to what we saw earlier this season. I suspect with a -EPO and MJO entering phase 8, this will translate to a rather active STJ from CA across the Northern GOM States into the Mid Atlantic regions. Will storms remain suppressed? A bit too early to tell. If we see a PNA W Coast Ridge and a cross polar flow, then the cold air should enter N America. No two patterns are alike, but the trends warrant attention IMHO. Regarding analogs. My opinion is that should be used cautiously. As I stated, no two patterns are alike. Analogs at this range suggest the pattern is capable of producing a storm of any analogs listed as examples via the CPC Super Ensemble.

[mrgolf]

I think we want the pna somewhat postitive to be able to deliver the coldair down this way.Like you mention,the models dont see that strong of a pna yet.When the storm track was active a few weeks ago,it was too warm around here.I wouldnt mind a same setup,if there will be a somewhat colder pattern. Colder and more active with a shot at winterstorms would be ok with me. Cold air is always got to be inplace first.

[Ntxw]

Just not too cold to where brutally arctic air blasts down to the Bay of Campeche holding no hostages and taking the moisture with it. Though that is a good setup if you like snow in Florida.

[donsutherland1]

A few quick morning thoughts:

1. Today's AO is -2.774. In the near-term it is forecast to plunge. Farther out, a few ensemble members show a rapid rise (one to positive). Such a rise is probably unlikely given the historic experience with severe February blocks and the recent stratospheric warming event.

2. The objective analogs (superensemble) centered on 2/9/10 has three analogs near or just after major East Coast snowstorms: 1/30/1966 (the middle of a blizzard), 2/12/1969 (2 days after the "Lindsay snowstorm"), and 2/9/1978 (two days after the blizzard of 1978). In other words, there is some support for the idea that the pattern evolved to its expected 2/9 state via a major East Coast snowstorm or blizzard. That possibility raises the stakes for the possible weekend storm.

As noted previously, I believe options for an inland track/coastal hugger that would generate precipitation-type issues for Washington to Boston are probably the least likely this time around. Much more likely is a moderate to significant snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region (including the big cities) and possibly southern New England region. While I am not sure that the storm would reach the magnitude of a KU snowstorm, that possibility is on the proverbial table.

3. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has crashed below -50 (and it could head lower). The ENSO Region 3.4 numbers for the week centered on 1/27 have not yet been posted. The previous week's figure was +1.4°C. Given the SOI figure, the overall idea of a slowly fading El Niño, rather than a rapid collapse, remains on track. That means an active subtropical jet should persist, probably through much of February and beyond. With ample blocking likely to predominate this month, I continue to expect a cold and snowy February in the East. Moreover, even if some areas have not received much snowfall recently (Ohio Valley, northern Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England), the combination of persistent blocking and an active subtropical jet should present snowfall opportunities for the month. Quite frankly, I would be suprised if snowfall figures were below normal for the month in such cities as Pittsburgh, New York, and Boston.

[cycloneye]

Don,here are the latest numbers from Climate Prediction Center in this weeks update.El Nino is now in a moderate stage falling from strong to moderate.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.4ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.4ºC
Niño 3= +0.8ºC
Niño1+2= +0.1ºC


This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.3ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.2ºC
Niño 3= +0.7ºC
Niño1+2= +0.4ºC


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[lrak]

Will there be any arctic cold in South Texas this coming Friday? Friday evening I have an outdoors event that I need to prepare for especially if it includes cold or rain. Our local guys say no worries...?

Thanks

lrak AkA karl

[srainhoutx]

No Arctic Air in S TX this week Karl. Of course timing on the mid week system is subject to change regarding the rain, but hopefully it will be out E by Friday...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
857 AM EST MON FEB 01 2010

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 05 2010 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2010


...MAJOR WINTER STORM ANTICIPATED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE 00Z/01 GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THE
CURRENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET COMING INTO THE WEST
COAST...AND A SPLIT...CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS PATTERN PRODUCED SNOW AND ICE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND IT APPEARS ANOTHER
WINTER STORM IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE SAME AREAS THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE SNOW INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THE
OCEAN SIDE OF I-95. A COMPLEX WAVE ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD MAINLY RAIN INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY DAY 5...WITH A RAPID DEEPENING NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS. CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THE STORM WILL LIFT ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM...THOUGH THE DOMINANT NORTHERN
STREAM THIS WINTER IS LIKELY TO HERD THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF
I-95...AS WITH THE EVENT BEFORE CHRISTMAS. STILL...THE IMPACT FOR
THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS WOULD BE HIGH. A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL MARK THE CUTOFF FOR THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WRUNG OUT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SIERRA NEVADA. THE 00Z/01 GFS...GEFS
MEAN...ECMWF...AND EC MEAN ALL CLUSTER FAIRLY WELL ACROSS THE
NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH ITS STRONG VERIFICATION THIS
SEASON...STUCK CLOSEST TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR THE DETAILS
OF THE PRELIMINARY UPDATE PACKAGE.


CISCO

[wxman22]

I love how the 12z GFS shows so much cold air and snow... :/ (sarcasm~) ofcourse its too early to latch on to one solution or another (will this normal wet pattern continue or will temps go below normal again? only time will tell)

[wxman57]

Will there be any arctic cold in South Texas this coming Friday? Friday evening I have an outdoors event that I need to prepare for especially if it includes cold or rain. Our local guys say no worries...?

Thanks

lrak AkA karl

Karl, I agree with the locals. It's looking like another nasty west Gulf low will form Wednesday, causing miserable cold weather all along the TX coast Wed/Thu. But the low should track off to the east by Friday, leaving a partly cloudy sky with highs in the low-mid 60s. By evening, I expect temperatures in the upper 50s.

[lrak]

Wxman57 thank you very much. We going to be outdoors Friday evening having a good time now that the weather looks so inviting!

Thanks again,
Karl AKA lraK

[Stephanie]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
857 AM EST MON FEB 01 2010

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 05 2010 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2010


...MAJOR WINTER STORM ANTICIPATED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE 00Z/01 GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THE
CURRENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET COMING INTO THE WEST
COAST...AND A SPLIT...CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS PATTERN PRODUCED SNOW AND ICE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND IT APPEARS ANOTHER
WINTER STORM IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE SAME AREAS THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE SNOW INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THE
OCEAN SIDE OF I-95. A COMPLEX WAVE ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD MAINLY RAIN INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY DAY 5...WITH A RAPID DEEPENING NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS. CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THE STORM WILL LIFT ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM...THOUGH THE DOMINANT NORTHERN
STREAM THIS WINTER IS LIKELY TO HERD THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF
I-95...AS WITH THE EVENT BEFORE CHRISTMAS. STILL...THE IMPACT FOR
THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS WOULD BE HIGH. A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL MARK THE CUTOFF FOR THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WRUNG OUT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SIERRA NEVADA. THE 00Z/01 GFS...GEFS
MEAN...ECMWF...AND EC MEAN ALL CLUSTER FAIRLY WELL ACROSS THE
NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH ITS STRONG VERIFICATION THIS
SEASON...STUCK CLOSEST TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR THE DETAILS
OF THE PRELIMINARY UPDATE PACKAGE.


CISCO

Looks like I may have to reschedule another hair appointment. I had to do that for the Dec 19 storm as well!

[attallaman]

Will there be a chance that the gulf coast states will be hit with another arctic blast sometime this month, a blast of cold air like what I experienced several weeks ago when lows here got down to the upper teens? Run your outside faucets all night kind of cold temperatures here along the gulf or will that kind of cold not be returning to my area anytime this month? Are the arctic cold temps of winter over for my region?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hello everyone, new to the board here. I'm somewhat fluent in meteo talk so i hope to contribute a bit to this board. I noticed alot of peeps from Houston here too! Well being in Sugar Land, just outside of Houston, i like that! Been reading some of your posts and i myself is getting excited on what may be coming down next week. Hopefully Houston can get another snowstorm like last time! Sugar Land was i9n the "bullseye" with a massive 3.1" but hey i'll take it! Look forward to discussing the weather with you guys

[Ntxw]

Hello everyone, new to the board here. I'm somewhat fluent in meteo talk so i hope to contribute a bit to this board. I noticed alot of peeps from Houston here too! Well being in Sugar Land, just outside of Houston, i like that! Been reading some of your posts and i myself is getting excited on what may be coming down next week. Hopefully Houston can get another snowstorm like last time! Sugar Land was i9n the "bullseye" with a massive 3.1" but hey i'll take it! Look forward to discussing the weather with you guys

Welcome on board! Your thoughts and inputs are greatly appreciated . Hope you can contribute to condition reports from Sugar Land if\when something exciting happens next week and beyond!

[vbhoutex]

Hello everyone, new to the board here. I'm somewhat fluent in meteo talk so i hope to contribute a bit to this board. I noticed alot of peeps from Houston here too! Well being in Sugar Land, just outside of Houston, i like that! Been reading some of your posts and i myself is getting excited on what may be coming down next week. Hopefully Houston can get another snowstorm like last time! Sugar Land was i9n the "bullseye" with a massive 3.1" but hey i'll take it! Look forward to discussing the weather with you guys

Ah, another metro Houston member!! Good stuff. Welcome to our humble abode. We look forward to your input.
Although there is nothing definitive at this point I think we are seeing some signals that we once again could be "stepping down" into a colder regime for a good part of February with the colder time(meaning even colder than now) appearing to begin about mid month or just a few days earlier. The hints are there, but nothing is set, to say the least.

[Tireman4]

Another Houston area folk ( Humble here!!). Welcome.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, Baltimore and Washington, DC added to their seasonal snow totals. Through yesterday, select seasonal snowfall totals for that region are:

Baltimore: 33.7" (most since 2002-03: 58.1")
Washington, DC:
--DCA: 26.1" (most since 2002-03: 40.4")
--IAD: 31.1" (most since 2002-03: 50.1")

Friday and Saturday could see parts of that region reach or exceed 40" seasonal snowfall. There is an outside shot that parts of the area could approach 50" seasonal snowfall depending on the amount of snow that falls. Moreover, this storm is not likely to be the last snowstorm of the winter in the East.

Briefly, since 1950, there have been 5 winters that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below in February while ENSO Region 3.4 had an anomaly of +0.5°C or greater for the month. Each of those winters saw a Kocin-Uccellini (KU) snowstorm during the block that commenced either in early February or January and persisted into February:

1958: 2/2-4/11: 2 KU snowstorms
1966: 1/10-2/10: 1 KU snowstorm
1969: 2/3-3/28: 2 KU snowstorms
1983: 1/29-2/26: 1 KU snowstorm
1987: 2/5-3/27: 1 KU snowstorm

5 of the 7 (71%) KU snowstorms during the blocks noted above occurred during GWO Phases 7 or 8. One (14%) occurred during Phase 5 and another during Phase 6.

It should also be noted that the two February blocks that saw the AO reach -5.000 or below, something for which there is some ensemble support, saw 1 or more KU snowstorms: 1969 (2) and 1978 (1).

This data further illustrates the idea that significant blocking and an El Niño-driven subtropical jet can lead to opportunities for major winter storms. All said, it increasingly appears that the 2/5-6 event could wind up being a KU snowstorm. Yet, even after that event, one cannot rule out the prospect for another KU snowstorm before the winter is finished. That means Winter 2009-10 could become only the third winter since 1950-51 to have three KU events. The other two winters were 1960-61 and 1986-87.