Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Quixotic]

Any guesses on what FWD does? I'm going to say Winter Storm Watch for Tarrant, Denton, Collin and points NW. Then an Advisory for Dallas County and points SE.

I'd say this is pretty dead on. My guess is that ultimately those in the WSW area get moved to a travel advisory rather than an actual winter storm warning.

[South Texas Storms]

I dont know still why TV mets and forecasters never understand this. I will never get it.

Because I think most mets are trained to look at blends instead of just one model out of several. To your point however, I think in the case of an arctic frontal boundary (particularly down here in TX), those forecast unfortunately are often adjusted in short to real-time based on trends (example you posted above) and so you end up with forecast having to be adjusted on the fly (which can cause problems for the public as well). In other words, it's often a waiting game. I get your point, but we don't always deal with just cold/winter precip scenarios here and so the general rule I think is to go with a blend.

Plus, as we've discussed before, it's much easier to call your shot on a forum or on twitter than to do that from met seat 48-60 hours out where that forecast impacts millions and you have several other models going in a totally different direction. I think as you pointed out, mentioning the NAM (as AUS/SAT did via twitter) was a step in the right direction in that they didn't rule it out.

Yep you nailed it. Professional mets normally stick close to a blend of models (NBM). However in these situations when the NAM typically has a better track record with arctic cold fronts, we hedge our forecast in that direction. We can't put all of our eggs in that basket because if it fails (it's happened before and will again), that will be a very bad look for us.

My team has our ice risk area reaching as far south as Austin. That's a bit south of the NBM guidance and more towards what the NAM is showing. I think Houston will probably miss out again on ice with this system and that is just fine with me!

[Quixotic]

The blend of models still shows a colder trend. I typically use the wx app on my phone to see what the trend is rather than taking temps and precip at face value. It's been getting colder since the mid range shuffle began.

[TropicalTundra]

So when's our front going to arrive into NTX and CTX? I thought it was going to be afternoon Wednesday but I guess it's going to be tomorrow morning? It looks like it's making it's way through central Kansas right now.

[Ntxw]

So when's our front going to arrive into NTX and CTX? I thought it was going to be afternoon Wednesday but I guess it's going to be tomorrow morning? It looks like it's making it's way through central Kansas right now.

North Texas around noon tomorrow and Central Texas mid to late afternoon. The deeper freezing line cold will stall during the day but make some progress in the evening and after dark.

This air mass as a strong N/S trajectory so actually areas along I-35 corridor will get it harder vs your typical West TX downslope. Frontogenesis is strong so suggesting it will have a good push behind it.

[bubba hotep]

15z SREF still keeping DFW right at freezing during the 2nd round of precipitation but it is usually too warm at range in these setups. It shows about 0.25" qpf after it gets DFW down to freezing.

[txtwister78]

18z NAM largely unchanged from the 12z.... frozen precip accumulation.

[Texas Snowman]

300 pages?!?

I could have sworn we canceled winter in December around page 75 or so…

[Haris]

GFS is living in another world. Lol.

[bevolon]

GFS is living in another world. Lol.

In what way? Just curious. Thanks!

[Brent]

GFS is living in another world. Lol.

In what way? Just curious. Thanks!

Probably because it's so warm. DFW doesn't even get below freezing and temps rise to 40 by Thursday morning

[txtwister78]

New extended RAP. Still not as cold as NAM 51 hours out. Keeps most of the frigid arctic air bottled up into the plains but you can clearly see the difference with the NAM allowing more of that to drain further south into the state. RAP also shows very little frozen precip throughout the state (light glaze of freezing drizzle near Wichita Falls area at least through 51 hours).

[bubba hotep]

Hi-res guidance including SREF & HREF gets the freezing line into or through DFW by 12z on Wednesday. What happens after then is the big question in regards to temps rebounding or dropping and how much qpf falls. A blend of guidance probably puts the low end of qpf after temps hit freezing at 0.25" with 0.35-.45" being about the avg but that is skewed by the Euro dropping almost 1".

[txtwister78]

Tough to argue with this all things considered. Didn't think anyone (area offices) would pull the trigger today on watches. Still some big questions remain unanswered in my opinion, but minor impacts is the responsible call here (as mentioned yesterday) with road temps being warm and lighter precip amounts being depicted by some of the short range models. Fun forecast. Lol

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1495891890981511172

[bubba hotep]

Tough to argue with this all things considered. Didn't think anyone (area offices) would pull the trigger today on watches. Still some big questions remain unanswered in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1495891890981511172?s=20&t=SRT8IIcUX9kXVL9sr4Ro2Q

Reasonable but probably still on the too conservative side.

[Haris]

New extended RAP. Still not as cold as NAM 51 hours out. Keeps most of the frigid arctic air bottled up into the plains but you can clearly see the difference with the NAM allowing more of that to drain further south into the state. RAP also shows very little frozen precip throughout the state (light glaze of freezing drizzle near Wichita Falls area at least through 51 hours).

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022121/051/sfct.conus.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/t2m_f/1645466400/1645660800-F0ZudSPBCRs.png

Main round is Thu so I suspect we’ll see it show up in future runs.

[orangeblood]

15z SREF still keeping DFW right at freezing during the 2nd round of precipitation but it is usually too warm at range in these setups. It shows about 0.25" qpf after it gets DFW down to freezing.

This is a really difficult forecast particularly when this uncertainty zone runs right through an area with 7 million plus people. I’d go WS Watches for now to get public’s attention then go from there…

[wxman57]

It's looking more like this week will feature winter's last gasp. The warmth of spring and summer isn't far off now. Enjoy your freezing rain and sleet up in the D-FW area Thursday then say goodbye to winter. MY time of the year isn't far off!

[bubba hotep]

A bit surprised to see much of DFW included in this as afternoon guidance has been keeping most of the storms NW of DFW.

[bubba hotep]

It's looking more like this week will feature winter's last gasp. The warmth of spring and summer isn't far off now. Enjoy your freezing rain and sleet up in the D-FW area Thursday then say goodbye to winter. MY time of the year isn't far off!

Boo! But the EPO and MJO might be able to bring us some March surprises, so I wouldn't bust out your tank tops just yet.