Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cerlin]

Been watching this from the shadows as I've been preoccupied with some other things. I'm a lot more confident for impacts along a diagonal line from DFW to Tulsa. I think there is a larger bust potential northward (dry air could really affect the ability for OKC metro to get anything) and more boom potential southward (Austin could overperform due to higher QPF and typical model mishandling of frontal strength). I'm curious to see how the close-range models handle this event but I'd start preparing for another ice storm if you're in North Texas.

[txtwister78]

Wow. Crazy. I mean only 2-3 days out and these continue to trend warmer in the short range.

[Iceresistance]

Wow. Crazy. I mean only 2-3 days out and these continue to trend warmer in the short range.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645444800/1645736400-9rfeV73bm5U.png

12z GEFS has actually trended COLDER for my area compared to 6z & 0z

[txtwister78]

Been watching this from the shadows as I've been preoccupied with some other things. I'm a lot more confident for impacts along a diagonal line from DFW to Tulsa. I think there is a larger bust potential northward (dry air could really affect the ability for OKC metro to get anything) and more boom potential southward (Austin could overperform due to higher QPF and typical model mishandling of frontal strength). I'm curious to see how the close-range models handle this event but I'd start preparing for another ice storm if you're in North Texas.

If the NAM is correct (still some question there), then no question the freezing rain corridor will shift further south into central TX. I think in terms of bust potential, hell it's all over the place with these models/this event (in several areas of the state) not just with temps but with precip amounts/type/location. Either the NAM is going to hit a grand slam or it's going to have egg all over its face. Yes, it's had some wins in these situations (but it's also been a laugher too with other events), and so right now this is hardly a slam dunk call yet two days out. Tough forecast for the offices in TX.

[txtwister78]

Wow. Crazy. I mean only 2-3 days out and these continue to trend warmer in the short range.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645444800/1645736400-9rfeV73bm5U.png

12z GEFS has actually trended COLDER for my area compared to 6z & 0z

No really an issue up in your area points NE. I'm focusing more on TX.

[Brent]

Pete Delkus apparently changed his profile picture to the wintry one and said it's coming. Take from that what you will

[Cerlin]

Wow. Crazy. I mean only 2-3 days out and these continue to trend warmer in the short range.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645444800/1645736400-9rfeV73bm5U.png

GFS ensemble does tend to be more inaccurate the closer you get, I wouldn't get worried about it at this point but it's still something to pay attention to.

[TropicalTundra]

Pete Delkus apparently changed his profile picture to the wintry one and said it's coming. Take from that what you will

 https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1495774256663248896

[bubba hotep]

18z HRRR at 18hrs (12z Tuesday) is colder than what the 12z 3k & 12k NAM showed for the same time. The front is a bit faster but the cold air upstream is pouring in a good bit faster.

[Haris]

18z HRRR at 18hrs (12z Tuesday) is colder than what the 12z 3k & 12k NAM showed for the same time. The front is a bit faster but the cold air upstream is pouring in a good bit faster.

The "best" model we look at this running 40 degrees too warm for N Kansas right now. This was the NAM from last night. ONly 24 hours out.

We know how cold it is already for our areas at 40+ hours. If this trend holds, maybe we dont get out of the LOWER - middle 20s

[Haris]

I dont know still why TV mets and forecasters never understand this. I will never get it.

[txtwister78]

Pete Delkus apparently changed his profile picture to the wintry one and said it's coming. Take from that what you will

https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1495774256663248896?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Not sure who he is, but what is that??? Lol. Is that the "red alert" call?

[gboudx]

Pete Delkus apparently changed his profile picture to the wintry one and said it's coming. Take from that what you will

https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1495774256663248896?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Not sure who he is, but what is that??? Lol. Is that the "red alert" call?

He's the ABC affiliate Chief Meteorologist on WFAA in DFW. I simply take it to mean it's going to get cold.

[txtwister78]

Wow. Crazy. I mean only 2-3 days out and these continue to trend warmer in the short range.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645444800/1645736400-9rfeV73bm5U.png

GFS ensemble does tend to be more inaccurate the closer you get, I wouldn't get worried about it at this point but it's still something to pay attention to.

Yeah not saying it's right btw (definitely not worried about it), but just can't get over the craziness with the inability of the models (most) to "see" the NAM solution which is clearly in the other direction is all.

[Ntxw]

I dont know still why TV mets and forecasters never understand this. I will never get it.

There is a balance between modeling and forecasting. Many just reflect the modeling and the various probability ranges. But that in itself is not fool proof. It can work and fail both ways.

As good as modeling we have now they still are limited vertically in the atmosphere.

[Brent]

https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1495774256663248896?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Not sure who he is, but what is that??? Lol. Is that the "red alert" call?

He's the ABC affiliate Chief Meteorologist on WFAA in DFW. I simply take it to mean it's going to get cold.

I've always assumed it meant some sort of frozen precip but y'all have known him longer than me lol

[txtwister78]

I dont know still why TV mets and forecasters never understand this. I will never get it.

Because I think most mets are trained to look at blends instead of just one model out of several. To your point however, I think in the case of an arctic frontal boundary (particularly down here in TX), those forecast unfortunately are often adjusted in short to real-time based on trends (example you posted above) and so you end up with forecast having to be adjusted on the fly (which can cause problems for the public as well). In other words, it's often a waiting game. I get your point, but we don't always deal with just cold/winter precip scenarios here and so the general rule I think is to go with a blend.

Plus, as we've discussed before, it's much easier to call your shot on a forum or on twitter than to do that from met seat 48-60 hours out where that forecast impacts millions and you have several other models going in a totally different direction. I think as you pointed out, mentioning the NAM (as AUS/SAT did via twitter) was a step in the right direction in that they didn't rule it out.

[gboudx]

I've always assumed it meant some sort of frozen precip but y'all have known him longer than me lol

Maybe it does, I don't follow him/anyone on Twitter so maybe it's a Twitter thing. But the DFW area is so large, he could be signaling it for at least part of the area. Until it happens otherwise, this is one of those events where I'll assume us Eastplexers will get cold rain.

[bubba hotep]

Any guesses on what FWD does? I'm going to say Winter Storm Watch for Tarrant, Denton, Collin and points NW. Then an Advisory for Dallas County and points SE.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro has a Catastrophic Ice Storm for Oklahoma. (First Mentioned on WxSphere)