Texas Winter 2025-2026

[txtwister78]

Winter is over down here. All I see is mid to upper 70s forecast for the next 10 days.

Can we at least get some damn rain if my AC has to be running in mid-Feb?

Doesn’t look like me or you are gonna get much of anything anytime soon.

Where is the buzzer on here...lol.

Joking aside, SPC has marginal risk out for a good portion of the region from SC TX points east where parameters are best. System has slowed a bit so this increases some instability to work with as front moves through.

Late afternoon to early evening storms look increasingly more likely. Obviously we won't get the rain we truly need out of this but better than nothing.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, it's not looking good. Maybe a lucky very, very late winter cold snap? But likely too late, and it will just ruin spring break. I will take a good severe weather season as long as the huge hail misses my house.

[txtwister78]

Well, it's not looking good. Maybe a lucky very, very late winter cold snap? But likely too late, and it will just ruin spring break. I will take a good severe weather season as long as the huge hail misses my house.

Lots of data out there citing increased likelihood of an active severe weather season across Texas with a transitioning La Nina to ENSO neutral state in the Spring so we shall see.

[Cpv17]

Well, it's not looking good. Maybe a lucky very, very late winter cold snap? But likely too late, and it will just ruin spring break. I will take a good severe weather season as long as the huge hail misses my house.

Lots of data out there citing increased likelihood of an active severe weather season across Texas with a transitioning La Nina to ENSO neutral state in the Spring so we shall see.

Maybe late month we could get into a more active stormy pattern.

[Stratton23]

that might be a big maybe, the PNA is forecast to stay strongly negative the next several weeks

[Cpv17]

that might be a big maybe, the PNA is forecast to stay strongly negative the next several weeks

The Euro and CPC are hinting at it late month.

[Brent]

Nobody up here believes winter is over so there's that of course it's easier to get cold up here than Texas but still. Not like there's anything even normal showing up... I think it may be just because it's February 12th and it'd be unheard of to be over maybe

There been some weak hints on the EPS late month I guess

First things first I wanna see if it really rains this weekend. Lots of talk about that

[wxman22]

that might be a big maybe, the PNA is forecast to stay strongly negative the next several weeks

A negative PNA is good for storms, at least up here in NW Texas. As it increases Lee side cyclogenesis. It’s harder to get severe weather in SE Texas though as the best dynamics tend to stay north of the area. Fun fact: Wichita County has had over 600 severe thunderstorm warnings since 2010.

[wxman22]

Upgrade to a slight risk tomorrow in East & SE Texas.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO
LA AND SOUTHWEST MS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from Saturday into Saturday night
from parts of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated hail
will be possible across parts of Texas during the day, with an
increasing threat of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes expected
Saturday night from east Texas into Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the
southern Plains during the day, before reaching the lower MS Valley
vicinity Saturday night. This system will be accompanied by a strong
midlevel jet (60-80 kt at 500 mb) and a consolidating surface low
that is forecast to eventually deepen and reach the ArkLaTex region
by evening. Relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in
the 60s F) will already be in place Saturday morning across parts of
TX/OK, and will eventually spread into parts of the lower MS Valley
by evening, in conjunction with the advancing surface low.

...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley...
Elevated storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from parts
of west/northwest TX into southern OK, which could pose an isolated
hail threat. Early-day convection may gradually evolve into a
loosely organized QLCS across north TX and vicinity, with additional
isolated strong to severe storm development possible into central TX
as the primary mid/upper shortwave trough ejects eastward. Weak to
locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will
support at least an isolated severe threat through the afternoon,
though CAM guidance varies regarding the coverage and duration of
organized storms through the first part of the period.

Guidance generally depicts increasing low-level mass response
near/after 00Z, which should aid the development of a more organized
QLCS during the evening across parts of east TX. This QLCS is
expected move eastward into parts of LA and lower MS Valley during
the late evening and overnight hours. While instability will become
increasingly scant with eastward extent, strengthening low/midlevel
flow and effective SRH will support development of one or more
organized bowing segments, with an attendant threat of scattered
damaging winds. Some increase in the tornado threat will also be
possible Saturday evening/night, both with line-embedded
mesovortices, and also potentially with any supercells within the
warm-conveyor belt region that eventually merge into the primary
QLCS.

Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z Sunday
morning, with the stronger forcing potentially becoming displaced
from the effective warm sector. However, some threat for locally
damaging winds and a brief tornado could persist near the LA/MS
coasts through the end of the forecast period.

[cstrunk]

A few tornadoes possible Saturday afternoon/evening in SE Texas. The threat may extend a bit farther west along I-10, but probably more of a hail risk with some potential for more isolated supercells as storms develop. Looks like a line of storms pushes east with some QLCS type spin-ups, gusty winds, and small hail.

[Dbolt12]

A few tornadoes possible Saturday afternoon/evening in SE Texas. The threat may extend a bit farther west along I-10, but probably more of a hail risk with some potential for more isolated supercells as storms develop. Looks like a line of storms pushes east with some QLCS type spin-ups, gusty winds, and small hail.

Thanks. Does anyone know the timing of the storms? Wife and daughter are driving from Houston to Austin Saturday and would prefer if they didn’t drive through it.

[Gotwood]

Looks like a return of colder temps are starting to show up on the models around the 22nd. Just in time for my outdoor baby shower lol.

[cstrunk]

A few tornadoes possible Saturday afternoon/evening in SE Texas. The threat may extend a bit farther west along I-10, but probably more of a hail risk with some potential for more isolated supercells as storms develop. Looks like a line of storms pushes east with some QLCS type spin-ups, gusty winds, and small hail.

Thanks. Does anyone know the timing of the storms? Wife and daughter are driving from Houston to Austin Saturday and would prefer if they didn’t drive through it.

Storms would be in the Austin area in the 3-6 pm timeframe and in the Houston area in the 7-11 pm timeframe based on the most recent short-range models.

[Dbolt12]

A few tornadoes possible Saturday afternoon/evening in SE Texas. The threat may extend a bit farther west along I-10, but probably more of a hail risk with some potential for more isolated supercells as storms develop. Looks like a line of storms pushes east with some QLCS type spin-ups, gusty winds, and small hail.

Thanks. Does anyone know the timing of the storms? Wife and daughter are driving from Houston to Austin Saturday and would prefer if they didn’t drive through it.

Storms would be in the Austin area in the 3-6 pm timeframe and in the Houston area in the 7-11 pm timeframe based on the most recent short-range models.

Thank you!

[TomballEd]

18Z HRRR and 3 km NAM suggest I-10 will be the S-ward limit of strong storms w/ HRRR getting storms a tad farther S. HRRR is decent rain IMBY (Houston, around 0.6), 3 km NAM, not so much. Southern end of the line is where a 'tail end charlie' is found, or there may be severe within a close distance to HOU area. Edwards Aquifer recharge zone doesn't look like it will get to recharge much. Globals are happier for rain IMBY, not much better than high res around San Antonio.

North Texas looks to do pretty well no matter the model.

[Cpv17]

18Z HRRR and 3 km NAM suggest I-10 will be the S-ward limit of strong storms w/ HRRR getting storms a tad farther S. HRRR is decent rain IMBY (Houston, around 0.6), 3 km NAM, not so much. Southern end of the line is where a 'tail end charlie' is found, or there may be severe within a close distance to HOU area. Edwards Aquifer recharge zone doesn't look like it will get to recharge much. Globals are happier for rain IMBY, not much better than high res around San Antonio.

North Texas looks to do pretty well no matter the model.

https://i.imgur.com/V4MNfuS.png

I’m hoping for at least a quarter inch. I’m in an extreme drought and will take whatever I can get.

[wxman22]

Looks like a return of colder temps are starting to show up on the models around the 22nd. Just in time for my outdoor baby shower lol.

Yep. I noticed that also, looks like a return to seasonal temps around that time. With an active storm track also.

[bubba hotep]

Newest Euro Weeklies give some hope for the end of Feb and start of March. The 18z GFS just needs some south shifts, and we are back in business.

[Gotwood]

Newest Euro Weeklies give some hope for the end of Feb and start of March. The 18z GFS just needs some south shifts, and we are back in business.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026021318/300/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Judah talked about the PV stretching again. So we may just get another shot the end of the month will be monitoring.

[bubba hotep]

Radar starting to light up in West Texas. Too bad there wasn't any cold air for this system to tap into.