Texas Winter 2017-2018

[downsouthman1]

Crazy uncle is still on board, looks very similar to HRRR...tough forecasts for the NWS offices across the state tomorrow

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_13.png

Yeah the large WSWatch will no doubt be replaced by WSWarnings, freezing rain advisories, and ice storm warnings.

[missygirl810]

Crazy uncle is still on board, looks very similar to HRRR...tough forecasts for the NWS offices across the state tomorrow

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_13.png

If this is right, I would get 3 inches.

[orangeblood]

Canadian, Euro and HRRR similar in that they're keeping heaviest precip axis confined to Northeast Texas as opposed to South Central Texas like the GFS is showing

[orangeblood]

Both the Euro and GFS ensembles are really active again for winter weather in the 10-15 day period once again...they did well during same time frame for this weeks storm system

[South Texas Storms]

Canadian, Euro and HRRR similar in that they're keeping heaviest precip axis confined to Northeast Texas as opposed to South Central Texas like the GFS is showing

The ARW, NMM, and TX Tech WRF agree with the GFS. Interesting model battle setting up.

[Cpv17]

That is quite a strong storm system in about 12 days on that 0z run of the GFS.

[Quixotic]

I just don’t see it. All the medium and high resolution models don’t show a thing for N Texas/DFW. However, I am a big proponent of cold. If the cold is there, we’ve got a shot. You never know. A dusting would be enough for me.

I called suppression as a big factor back on one of the first pages of this thread. It’s turning out to be true. However, once we roll to February and the wavelengths shorten I feel we will hit the jackpot. Cold will be there.

[Ralph's Weather]

Low to mid 20s for the past 3 mornings and 28 now plus 20s with snow falling tomorrow night, there will not be a problem with it sticking i do not believe.

[wxman22]

The 0z suite of NAM mesoscale models are coming in stronger for Southeast Texas especially the arw-2

[Cpv17]

06z NAM coming in more bullish on SETX. Widespread 1 to 3” totals.

[stormlover2013]

What euro show

[Cpv17]

What euro show

Not sure. I don’t have access to it. I can only check what it shows on tropical tidbits which isn’t much.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I just don’t see it. All the medium and high resolution models don’t show a thing for N Texas/DFW. However, I am a big proponent of cold. If the cold is there, we’ve got a shot. You never know. A dusting would be enough for me.

I called suppression as a big factor back on one of the first pages of this thread. It’s turning out to be true. However, once we roll to February and the wavelengths shorten I feel we will hit the jackpot. Cold will be there.

Which models are those?

[Cpv17]

What euro show

I’m not exactly sure where you live, but the NAM has the front coming through Southeast TX between I believe 2-4AM Tuesday morning and temps slowly fall all day long. By Tuesday afternoon the NAM has temps in the mid to upper 20’s across most of SETX. Crazy cold no doubt about it. I can’t remember the last time SETX was in the mid to upper 20’s during the middle of the afternoon and I’m sure wind chill values will be between 10 to 15 degrees because the winds are supposed to be 20-30mph on Tuesday.

[stormlover2013]

I live north of Beaumont.

[Cpv17]

I live north of Beaumont.

Here is what the NAM is saying on totals and when temperatures bottom out Wednesday morning.

[stormlover2013]

I wish we could get the euro

[Cpv17]

I wish we could get the euro

Trust me, me too! But in the meantime here is totals from the WRF-ARW2 model. Terrible for the DFW and NTX area, but really good for us down here. I really hope those guys up there don’t miss out on the snow once again. I hope they at least get an inch widespread.

[Cpv17]

I think it’s fairly clear to say tonight that Southeast TX has trended to be in the sweet spot according to the overnight model runs. Especially areas west of I-45..well at least according to the models I looked at.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Seems like around the Houston area, its not showing quite as much precip as other areas. Not quite sure how to feel about this. I get the front will rush down central Tx quicker, which will provide more lift but our area should have more moisture available due to the proximity of the GOM. Lets hope this plays out.

The WRF is showing a bigger high than the GFS in Neb, which could be why the precip is so much higher.
Based on surface analysis, GFS seems to be handling the strength of the high fairly well. Last couple runs have a 1057 MB high crossing the border. Runs before that were slightly weaker, great trend.

Center of the trough bringing down the air continued to nudge westward, good sign for us. Better than being further east for sure.

Were abut halfway through this winter season and so far its been entertaining. Continuing to learn alot and have fun doing it with you guys. Lets hope we are satisfied from this event on Tuesday.