Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Cpv17]

Hmmm

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAlvhjSXEAEixQO?format=png&name=medium

I’ve seen that look before back in December and it never came south. Won’t get my hopes up.

[Stratton23]

of course you need the AO to be a bit more negative this time of the year, but their is so much blocking over the top on the models and ensembles , including the NAO, that cold air has to go south somewhere eventually, AI Euro ensemble is very expansive with the cold, taking up all of canada , AO has been negative and still will remain so, but last week ensembles were taking the AO up to neutral to weak positive, over the past 2-3 days it now looks to stay negative with ensembles showing some hints at yet another drop in the AO on ensembles, we will see

[Cpv17]

of course you need the AO to be a bit more negative this time of the year, but their is so much blocking over the top on the models and ensembles , including the NAO, that cold air has to go south somewhere eventually, AI Euro ensemble is very expansive with the cold, taking up all of canada , AO has been negative and still will remain so, but last week ensembles were taking the AO up to neutral to weak positive, over the past 2-3 days it now looks to stay negative with ensembles showing some hints at yet another drop in the AO on ensembles, we will see

Where’s 11 at from Stranger Things to open up a gate when you need one!?!

[Quixotic]

Haha yeah other than the derecho a few summers ago there hasn't been anything notable(although that derecho was about the worst thing I've ever seen even growing up in Dixie alley more like the hurricanes I remember 20-30 years ago). The winter storms have otherwise honestly been the most impactful events each year haha

Schools closed a week several times

But personally I've seen enough severe weather from Alabama and Dallas. Don't really miss it. I got someone the other day when I told them I was in Alabama in April 2011. It gets a reaction of disbelief because there were multiple tornadoes that month that killed more than Moore and El Reno ever has

I’m with you. I’ve seen enough severe weather. You replace enough roofs, totaled cars and downed fences it gets old. Unless it’s a high risk, you won’t find me on the board. I saw the Jarrell tornado up close and it’s something I’d not want to see again. I remember thinking “God help who ever is under that.”

Incidentally, I found if you want the best place for all types of weather the winner was…..Iowa. Severe weather, decent rain, snows regularly and an occasional blizzard. I did a whole spreadsheet just as an exercise in futility.

What’s up with the corn fields during the summer in Iowa producing insane dew points and heat indexes? What’s the science behind that? At least I heard it was from corn fields lol

Yeah. Not sure what the meteorological term is but in biology it’s transpiration. Take DFW for instance. It’s a large city with no topological or geographical reason to exist. Usually big cities form along a coast, river, lake or mountains. The only feature here is the transition from eastern woods to prairie. It’s humid to the east and dry to the west. I can see a whole bunch of crops releasing moisture but it’s more likely the industrial scale watering combined with transpiration that makes it humid. Plus most of the state is similar to east Texas rather than grasslands in terms of annual rainfall.

[Brent]

Well severe weather hype for Friday is definitely growing here

I'll believe it when I see it at this point I just hope all the rain isn't east of us

[TomballEd]

I’m with you. I’ve seen enough severe weather. You replace enough roofs, totaled cars and downed fences it gets old. Unless it’s a high risk, you won’t find me on the board. I saw the Jarrell tornado up close and it’s something I’d not want to see again. I remember thinking “God help who ever is under that.”

Incidentally, I found if you want the best place for all types of weather the winner was…..Iowa. Severe weather, decent rain, snows regularly and an occasional blizzard. I did a whole spreadsheet just as an exercise in futility.

What’s up with the corn fields during the summer in Iowa producing insane dew points and heat indexes? What’s the science behind that? At least I heard it was from corn fields lol

Yeah. Not sure what the meteorological term is but in biology it’s transpiration. Take DFW for instance. It’s a large city with no topological or geographical reason to exist. Usually big cities form along a coast, river, lake or mountains. The only feature here is the transition from eastern woods to prairie. It’s humid to the east and dry to the west. I can see a whole bunch of crops releasing moisture but it’s more likely the industrial scale watering combined with transpiration that makes it humid. Plus most of the state is similar to east Texas rather than grasslands in terms of annual rainfall.

Transpiration is a thing in Iowa in the summer. Dewpoints stay the same or even rise during afternoon heating due to the corn. The opposite of down here, where the max dewpoint in the summer is usually near dawn. There is a fairly defined line, about I-35, where there is a transition to less rain/lower humidity. The topographical feature seems subtle (the Balcones Escarpment) but it has an effect.

Most of DFW's humidity issue is from the S or SE winds coming off the Gulf. The curve of the coastline also plays a part.

[TomballEd]

There is abnormally cold air in Canada. However abnormally cold air in Alaska is not usually a good sign for cold down here nor is the above average temp the ensemble sees. GFS ensembles similar. I think through late month its mostly warm and we catch the back end of cold fronts like we did yesterday. Getting sad, what little rainfall for SETX the models had they are slowly losing. We're better than most of Texas but we still need rain.

[gpsnowman]

Hooray!!! Cedar Fever is back after a winter timeout. Just wonderful. We need some rain around here now. This is getting ridiculous.

[Cpv17]

What’s up with the corn fields during the summer in Iowa producing insane dew points and heat indexes? What’s the science behind that? At least I heard it was from corn fields lol

Yeah. Not sure what the meteorological term is but in biology it’s transpiration. Take DFW for instance. It’s a large city with no topological or geographical reason to exist. Usually big cities form along a coast, river, lake or mountains. The only feature here is the transition from eastern woods to prairie. It’s humid to the east and dry to the west. I can see a whole bunch of crops releasing moisture but it’s more likely the industrial scale watering combined with transpiration that makes it humid. Plus most of the state is similar to east Texas rather than grasslands in terms of annual rainfall.

Transpiration is a thing in Iowa in the summer. Dewpoints stay the same or even rise during afternoon heating due to the corn. The opposite of down here, where the max dewpoint in the summer is usually near dawn. There is a fairly defined line, about I-35, where there is a transition to less rain/lower humidity. The topographical feature seems subtle (the Balcones Escarpment) but it has an effect.

Most of DFW's humidity issue is from the S or SE winds coming off the Gulf. The curve of the coastline also plays a part.

I’ve always found it interesting how dews get so crazy there during the summer and their heat indexes are way worse than ours cuz it makes zero geographical sense.

[Gotwood]

There is abnormally cold air in Canada. However abnormally cold air in Alaska is not usually a good sign for cold down here nor is the above average temp the ensemble sees. GFS ensembles similar. I think through late month its mostly warm and we catch the back end of cold fronts like we did yesterday. Getting sad, what little rainfall for SETX the models had they are slowly losing. We're better than most of Texas but we still need rain.

https://i.imgur.com/dYlafBa.png

Winter is over. We need rain badly, it seems we may have something this next weekend for some.

[txtwister78]

Yeah it's all about the AO for us especially in February with this setup models have in the longer range not the NAO which has a more significant impact on the NE/eastern areas of the US where cold is concerned.

Cold as modeled showing up across Western and Central Canada in a few weeks looks nice but it still has to get it into Texas and that means without the EPO you need a solid -AO to do its thing. Just not there right now and time is running out to get that to change. If its going to happen we really need to see some changes coming from ensembles this week.

[Stratton23]

Thank god next winter will be el nino, this has been a pretty boring winter IMO, 3/10 for me

[txtwister78]

Thank god next winter will be el nino, this has been a pretty boring winter IMO, 3/10 for me

I was just about to respond to your winter isn't over and Larry Cosgrove comment and then my phone rang and I lost my post. Now I see you edited it anyway. Lol. Oh well.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 lol i know, i have a habit of changing my comments alot, i did talk with larry last night though, he still thinks we get cold at the end of this month, of course he’s been wrong before as well, but then again everyone great met has been, even as just a weather nerd whose opinion on getting cold down the road hasn’t changed, I could be wrong, ive just learned from past winters to not plant anything until march regardless of models, ive lost a decent amount of money thanks to late season cold snaps lol

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 lol i know, i have a habit of changing my comments alot, i did talk with larry last night though, he still thinks we get cold at the end of this month, of course he’s been wrong before as well, but then again everyone great met has been, even as just a weather nerd whose opinion on getting cold down the road hasn’t changed, I could be wrong, ive just learned from past winters to not plant anything until march regardless of models, ive lost a decent amount of money thanks to late season cold snaps lol

Yeah no worries. I was just going to say I get why he's bullish on that and I do think winter isn't over for a good portion of the country obviously as we head into late February especially with cold building by then. That aspect is almost a layup given the signals ahead. The Western areas may finally cash in thanks to the -PNA finally

The bigger question mark for me/us and of course more important for our region of the country is how cold can it really get down into Texas and as mentioned above the jury is still out on that but it's getting close to issuing a verdict in the negative if things don't change soon with respect to our AO signal.

WPO and PNA is in our camp but we need that AO to dip a little further to push cold up against that SE ridge with the jet and so that AI run of the Euro is what you want to see. Only problem is it doesn't have much support yet behind it but it's close. Little more time to watch

[Stratton23]

Txtwister78 i agree with everything you say, honestly the telconnections arent even bad, just a little more dip in the AO and its a different story, of course the SE ridge will be present so thats always a challenge , will be interesting to see if the Euro AIFS is on to something or not as it has a couple of times this winter, actually beat out the other global models in terms of seeing the cold, ensemble not their yet, but could be a good test for AI modeling here, or not of course lol

[TomballEd]

Timing issues. The Tuesday storms that produced a tornado warned storm that produced straight line wind or minor tornado damage showed less instability than this a few days back. 700 J/Kg isn't high, straight hodograph but ~60 knots of speed shear and a few days for storm parameters to become more favorable, well, who knows. SPC mentions it but risk is too low to issue an outlook.

[txtwister78]

Timing issues. The Tuesday storms that produced a tornado warned storm that produced straight line wind or minor tornado damage showed less instability than this a few days back. 700 J/Kg isn't high, straight hodograph but ~60 knots of speed shear and a few days for storm parameters to become more favorable, well, who knows. SPC mentions it but risk is too low to issue an outlook.

https://i.imgur.com/9YlMbri.png

I think Friday evening into Saturday is setting up to be a better chance for some severe storms across portions of the state but definitely something to watch

[gpsnowman]

https://x.com/CollinGrossWx/status/2020 ... 61635?s=20
Some cool imagery right here. Wonder how long that took for the crack to spread all the way down? Natural wonders like this amaze me.

[Cpv17]

Timing issues. The Tuesday storms that produced a tornado warned storm that produced straight line wind or minor tornado damage showed less instability than this a few days back. 700 J/Kg isn't high, straight hodograph but ~60 knots of speed shear and a few days for storm parameters to become more favorable, well, who knows. SPC mentions it but risk is too low to issue an outlook.

https://i.imgur.com/9YlMbri.png

I think Friday evening into Saturday is setting up to be a better chance for some severe storms across portions of the state but definitely something to watch

It probably won’t be much of anything south of I-10 though.