Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Quixotic]

Judah just posted his new blog a bit ago. Seems we are still in wait and see mode. https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

That’s a whole lot of words to say “I dunno”.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Welp, when i last left you lot, I was prepping for my trip to Crested Butte for the week. Left DEN airport around midnight with snow and 3 degrees, took 5 hours to get to Gunnison, CO after driving through ALOT of snow to get there. Sounds like many of you had a historical event. I read through around 65 pages to catch up to where we are now. Excited for more winter to come for you guys!

Winter here is essentially gone for us skiers. Very little hope to save it. Skiing the really difficult stuff requires alot of snow and we need at least 2 feet quickly to catch up.

[DallasAg]

Welp, when i last left you lot, I was prepping for my trip to Crested Butte for the week. Left DEN airport around midnight with snow and 3 degrees, took 5 hours to get to Gunnison, CO after driving through ALOT of snow to get there. Sounds like many of you had a historical event. I read through around 65 pages to catch up to where we are now. Excited for more winter to come for you guys!

Winter here is essentially gone for us skiers. Very little hope to save it. Skiing the really difficult stuff requires alot of snow and we need at least 2 feet quickly to catch up.

Yeah this ski season has sucked. I haven't even ventured up to CB this year but the pictures don't look great. They're so far behind on snow this year.

CPC has been hinting at above normal precip (and snow!) for the intermountain west all the way to the Pacific in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Hopefully this verifies. Would be nice to get a storm ahead of Presidents Day and Spring Break holidays.

[Brent]

Welp, when i last left you lot, I was prepping for my trip to Crested Butte for the week. Left DEN airport around midnight with snow and 3 degrees, took 5 hours to get to Gunnison, CO after driving through ALOT of snow to get there. Sounds like many of you had a historical event. I read through around 65 pages to catch up to where we are now. Excited for more winter to come for you guys!

Winter here is essentially gone for us skiers. Very little hope to save it. Skiing the really difficult stuff requires alot of snow and we need at least 2 feet quickly to catch up.

It's definitely been a weird winter no doubt. I mean the only real snow I've even seen here was all in that one storm over 36 hours yes on the books we hit our snow average but it's just weird. Not to mention how much of a torch it was before that

Everything else has been a couple random flakes you had to be watching or you'd miss it. Very unusual for us. We usually at least get a random dusting or something outside of the bigger events. Not this year so far

Sucks for you guys but I'm still hoping for a secondary push more focused out there if nothing else. The east coast has had enough fun already. Some places in NC got more snow last weekend alone than we've had up here

[TomballEd]

Tornado warning (radar) for WC Liberty County.

https://i.imgur.com/TPLWaV9.gif

It may have been straight line winds but there was damage with the tornado warned storm. TV news showed a barn with the metal roof peeled off.
137 UNK 4 NNW Plum Grove Liberty TX 3025 9510 Trees down near intersection of County Road 3709 and County Road 3732. (HGX)

Big airport picked up 0.71 inches of rain. Morning shower just before I left for work and 2 thunderstorms, one in the afternoon and one a few hours later. Lightning was infrequent and winds were not strong. But the rain was welcomed.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro has DFW pushing 80F on the 18th

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

After the lengthy period of below normal temperatures in late
January, the opposite will occur with above normal temperatures
beginning Thursday and lasting through at least Tuesday of next
week - all thanks to a large upper ridge building northward from
the western Gulf up into western Canada. Highs look to reach the
60s/70s on Thursday and 70s to around 80 from Friday through
Sunday per NBM guidance. Several models are notably even warmer
during this timeframe, although still well below record highs
which are in the mid to upper 80s. Low level flow will remain
weak from Thursday through Sunday with no notable return flow
from the Gulf, so no rain is anticipated. By early next week,
stronger southerly flow from the Gulf will setup as a large H5
trough takes hold across the western CONUS, while an upper low
noted on 00Z guidance moves slowly from northern Mexico into
Texas from Monday through Wednesday. This system could bring us
some low rain chances these three days, but guidance remains
vastly different on this potential and only slight chance pops
are warranted at this range.

[Brent]

00z Euro has DFW pushing 80F on the 18th

Even up here I see a 77 and a 78

it's way too early for this crap

[gpsnowman]

00z Euro has DFW pushing 80F on the 18th

Turn out the lights, the party's over.

[Quixotic]

La Niña stuff. When it gets that hot that early, it means a dump of cold air is coming.

[Lagreeneyes03]

La Niña stuff. When it gets that hot that early, it means a dump of cold air is coming.

Interesting, but it does make sense seeing how warm Christmas until mid-January was. With that dump of cold, I'm sure severe weather would be on the table followed by possible sleet

[Stratton23]

Pacific blocking is looking a lot better across the board on all ensemble guidance compared to 3-4 days ago, still not quite their yet, but starting to see that trend towards - WPO and even a - EPO returning around valentines, of course you’re fighting the sun angle and climatology, but it can still get pretty cold even in mid to late february,its being hinted at in the telconnection charts , id wait until march to plant a garden lol, im pretty convinced we arent done yet with some of the trends ive seen the past 72-96 hours

[JDawg512]

What I want is rain. Cooler temps are nice but we need rain and we need it now.

[txtwister78]

I would be a little more intrigued by a mid month "flip" if the AO was more negative than ensembles currently indicate but with the PNA going nosedive negative that presents a stout SE ridge signal and so even with a marginal-WPO and -AO you've likely to get a battle further north between cold and warm across the plains perhaps as far south into Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle.

Still some time to watch trends but we really need some more help from our teleconnections to drive cold south going up against what looks to be a stout SE ridge by mid month and even beyond.

[Cpv17]

What I want is rain. Cooler temps are nice but we need rain and we need it now.

Unfortunately rain chances aren’t looking very good for most of the state for at least the next couple weeks.

[Cpv17]

Hopefully next weeks system will trend better on the models. We really need the rain, especially the southern half of the state.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Im hopeful we will get one more winter event. Im guessing this warm up is coming from mjo being in phase 1-3,which typically are cold phases, but i guess not in February.

[Stratton23]

GEFS is seeding western and central canada with cold, should get a boost from the MJO going into 2/3 after sitting in 1 for a while, the big question is delivery mechanism, but at least we are seeing our source region reloading

[bubba hotep]

GEFS is seeding western and central canada with cold, should get a boost from the MJO going into 2/3 after sitting in 1 for a while, the big question is delivery mechanism, but at least we are seeing our source region reloading

[Golfisnoteasy75]

GEFS is seeding western and central canada with cold, should get a boost from the MJO going into 2/3 after sitting in 1 for a while, the big question is delivery mechanism, but at least we are seeing our source region reloading

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAWzuLXXYAAXLqJ?format=png&name=medium

A -epo would get the job done,but without it, the cold will only come so far south. I believe a -epo will only be able to allow winter to extend into March. If not, may need to start thinking about next winter.