Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ralph's Weather]

This looks like a big bummer for north of DFW Seems like we have had a lot of cold this winter up this way, but can’t get any precipitation

Another one of those "too cold to snow" situations. This winter has turned out to be a big ol Winter Cancel in my book. It's not winter unless we get a good sleet or snow storm for me.

DFW still could easily see over an inch and the side over 2 inches is on the table

[PTrackerLA]

12z ICON and 00z Euro still giving some hope for SE Texas and the coast of Louisiana. Latest ICON shows a lot more moisture than previous runs, let's hope it shares notes with it's neighbor the 12z Euro!

[Ntxw]

Here is the rgem (its a mesoscale model like the NAM to GFS, as RGEM to Cmc)

[Captmorg70]

This looks like a big bummer for north of DFW Seems like we have had a lot of cold this winter up this way, but can’t get any precipitation

Another one of those "too cold to snow" situations. This winter has turned out to be a big ol Winter Cancel in my book. It's not winter unless we get a good sleet or snow storm for me.

Ntxw and Bubba are correct that models still show a potential for DFW. That tough part of this system is the setup and where it starts. We have a chance, but it could also barely graze us as well

[orangeblood]

This looks like a big bummer for north of DFW Seems like we have had a lot of cold this winter up this way, but can’t get any precipitation

Another one of those "too cold to snow" situations. This winter has turned out to be a big ol Winter Cancel in my book. It's not winter unless we get a good sleet or snow storm for me.

Well considering this part of the world only averages around an inch of snow every year, this storm coming up is what "winter" is typically like around these parts. Nothing too out of the ordinary, just so many factors have to come together for frozen precip considering our latitude

[EnnisTx]

I don't know, thinking that these models are all crazy and we may just have to wait until the event starts to get a fill for what's in store.

[Ntxw]

I don't know, thinking that these models are all crazy and we may just have to wait until the event starts to get a fill for what's in store.

They are not crazy, in general they have the right idea. We are now discussing details, and we're guessing in tenths of an inch of qpf. That's not easy even in real time. It will likely snow for most along I-20, even the venerable wxman57 the conservative met agrees. Amount is in the air dusting to a few inches.

Far cry from nothing earlier in the week and CPC maps of above normal. We forget, some if not most were saying this is Jan thaw period with lots of warmth

[orangeblood]

I don't know, thinking that these models are all crazy and we may just have to wait until the event starts to get a fill for what's in store.

They are not crazy, in general they have the right idea. We are now discussing details, and we're guessing in tenths of an inch of qpf. That's not easy even in real time. It will likely snow for most along I-20, even the venerable wxman57 the conservative met agrees. Amount is in the air dusting to a few inches.

Yeah, although a few inches would be nice, I'm enjoying the fact that this is a pretty rare system for us in that we might have wind driven snow with temps in the 20's

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is the rgem (its a mesoscale model like the NAM to GFS, as RGEM to Cmc)


http://i63.tinypic.com/2vif59c.png

I would be very happy with 3 inches. Been a long while since we have had that. I think last was Christmas 2012 and that was just north of I20.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, although a few inches would be nice, I'm enjoying the fact that this is a pretty rare system for us in that we might have wind driven snow with temps in the 20's

Yeah I agree it is quite a novelty. We don't see frontal snows down here. We always ask why does it snow up north with little moisture, well this is how it happens up there. Nickel and dime all winter. They get a few inches here, couple there with each front out of tiny amounts of liquid and high ratios.

[longhornweather]

What kind of ice storm are we talking about in Austin at this point? Sounds like there will be enough combination of frozen stuff to cause travel issues on Tuesday but are we looking at enough to cause widespread power outages as well?

[Haris]

What kind of ice storm are we talking about in Austin at this point? Sounds like there will be enough combination of frozen stuff to cause travel issues on Tuesday but are we looking at enough to cause widespread power outages as well?

Good morning everyone! And no. Power outages will be more scattered to regional. About a 1/10" to 1/5" of ice expected with an inch of sleet/snow. Roads will be TERRIBLE and very HAZARDOUS weather possible.

[Ntxw]

What kind of ice storm are we talking about in Austin at this point? Sounds like there will be enough combination of frozen stuff to cause travel issues on Tuesday but are we looking at enough to cause widespread power outages as well?

From the models and soundings, looks like sleet and some snow. Those two are usually not power damaging as freezing rain. Sleet can make roads hard to navigate as it is probably the worst form for them. See DFW during cobblestone event.

[EnnisTx]

I don't know, thinking that these models are all crazy and we may just have to wait until the event starts to get a fill for what's in store.

They are not crazy, in general they have the right idea. We are now discussing details, and we're guessing in tenths of an inch of qpf. That's not easy even in real time. It will likely snow for most along I-20, even the venerable wxman57 the conservative met agrees. Amount is in the air dusting to a few inches.

Far cry from nothing earlier in the week and CPC maps of above normal. We forget, some if not most were saying this is Jan thaw period with lots of warmth

I know, just hoping we could have a similar event like this one!

A new record of 12.5 inches of snow in a 24-hour period was set at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (11.2 on Thursday) -- and flakes were still coming down after midnight. The previous daily record was 7.8 inches on Jan. 15, 1964, and Jan. 14, 1917 and the previous 24-hour record was 12.1 inches.Feb 15, 2010

Who remembers this like it was yesterday???

[bubba hotep]

12z ICON has a second system that ups totals.

[EnnisTx]

12z ICON has a second system that ups totals.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_61.png

That's what I'm talking about. This would make everyone's year!

[gpsnowman]

I would take that and be satisfied the rest of winter.

[Snowman67]

I would love for this to happen. Have to fly out of Houston Tuesday morning and will miss any winter weather event down here. Return on Friday afternoon, so I hope I have something to look forward to the following week. Nothing worse than being gone when there's a chance for winter weather at home...

[cheezyWXguy]

12z ICON has a second system that ups totals.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_61.png

That's what I'm talking about. This would make everyone's year!

Dont get too excited. Not sure why but something is off with the snowfall map. It shows snow with that late weekend system with little or even no precip falling and temps in the 60s

[orangeblood]

yeah, that German model has major flaws in it, I've noticed it has trouble with temps when there is snow on the ground...keeps them way too cold. Although, GFS ENS are bringing the Thursday system back somewhat, still time to trend back