I just wanted to post finally something that could have that impact in the region, but we will see. Are we finally beginning to see a shift in the pattern heading into December?
![Image](http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png)
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northjaxpro wrote:Check this out. Record high temperatures could be tied or broken this weekend across areas of the Deep South. Boy, this a bummer for those who look forward to colder temps, as we should be getting this time of year. Granted the sun angle is at its lowest this time of year, and the warmth may not be "scorching' as it is during the late spring into summer. But, still readings this warm well into December is a bummer for cool weather lovers like yours truly.
Cities in Alabama that will challenge records this weekend:
SATURDAY, DEC 12
BIRMINGHAM 78 (1971)
MONTGOMERY 82 (1971)
TUSCALOOSA 79 (1971)
ANNISTON 77 (1971)
SUNDAY DEC 13
BIRMINGHAM 79 (1931)
MONTGOMERY 80 (1931)
TUSCALOOSA 76 (1991)
ANNISTON 73 (2007)
There are finally signs that changes are on the horizon. There is a cold front forecast to move through the Deep South region late this week, and will bring in a much cooler air mass to at least bring temperatures back to near normal by Friday into next Saturday (12/19 -12/20). Also, long range GFS is also trending to a cooler,wet and stormier pattern for the Southern tier of the CONUS as we head toward New Year's Day as the ugly side of El Nino may finally come as we head into January.
Hammy wrote:This weather is utterly frustrating at this point, just warmup after warmup. Northern Georgia, and I recordded 85.7 in the sun on my front porch. Too hot to even put up the Christmas lights![]()
What went so wrong with the forecasts and what's causing the heat ridging in the east? And is it even worth expecting winter at this point?
Ntxw wrote:Here are some visuals to help show my previous post. It is remarkable the persistence climo for the major El Nino's. Weak and even moderate events can deviate but the strong (ONI > +1.5C) are very consistent.
All of them featured a normal to mild December, likely because El Nino's peak around NDJ and Canada is flooded with warmth.
By January the El Nino's slowly weaken and their influence becomes less that allows Canada to get cold, however we still keep the roaring lingering subtropical jet.
By February the Nino continues to weaken with the seasonal jet still strong, evidenced by the anomalies
Luckily the southern tier of the US is favored to be below normal. Canonical Nino events generally behave very similar. There are often low skill in forecasting winters that bears weak ENSO events or neutral. But in strong events (strong La Nina, strong El Nino) skill becomes higher as the ENSO event imposes the classic climo that they favor below. Good confidence the upper tier of the US will experience a very mild winter while the lower tier cooler than normal.
Hammy wrote:I guess that 500mb high isn't going anywhere anytime soon--yesterday it appeared we might finally start getting troughs coming out of the Gulf but the models have shifted back west yet again.
Ntxw wrote:Hammy wrote:I guess that 500mb high isn't going anywhere anytime soon--yesterday it appeared we might finally start getting troughs coming out of the Gulf but the models have shifted back west yet again.
It will take a little more time. -SOI crash will soon occur so that SE ridge will break down to a +PNA set up. Perhaps second week of January
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