Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Quixotic]

That -AO is impressive.

[txtwister78]

That -AO is impressive.

It is and it can drive a pattern as we move later into winter so as important as the EPO can be as it relates to our winter, we don't need a tank to get some cold and active weather especially when the PNA begins to cooperate as it looks to do by mid month.

[Ntxw]

Side note, cold front came through today. Thought I was going to get a heat stroke but thank goodness it is cold again now...

[gpsnowman]

Side note, cold front came through today. Thought I was going to get a heat stroke but thank goodness it is cold again now...

Seriously. I was sweating at 58 degrees earlier. It's weird, the older I get the more warmth bothers me. For some people it's the opposite, like my wife, daughter and 57. I think I need help.

[gpsnowman]

I didn't really need the heat on during the cold snap. It was on mainly for my family. I never got cold once , except for my feet at times.

[Ntxw]

To back up txtwister, the AO arguably is even more important in February for cold than the EPO is, which is the reason it raises an eyebrow the upcoming -AO. Using DFW history 1978, 2010, 2021, and even the coldest blast of last year, occurred because of severe -AO, where the EPO was meager in all of these cases. -AO's near the end of the season have more influence because source region is vastly colder and expanse is greater than early winter.



None of these cases accounted for any dive in -EPO, though some Pacific favorability is definitely helpful which there should be. -EPO is great for ice, -AO is better for snow.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

[Stratton23]

GFS and Euro operational runs show the spiking of the ridge In Alaska, exactly what we were looking for in our last outbreak , once that ridge balloons and sets up over Alaska, its game time, of course operational runs dont mean anything that far out, but it is a good sign to see the euro showing that - EPO popping off

[Brent]

There's definitely noise just before or around Valentine's Day on the overnight models

Yeah we may warm up before that but I don't see it lasting

[DallasAg]

After watching the teleconnections closely over the past 2 decades, I'm more and more convinced the precursor to sustained cold and winter precip in the southern plains is the Strongly Negative EPO (--EPO). Without it, it can still get really cold but its normally dry just like this coming weekend. If you want the dense cold to press underneath STJ moisture riding over the top in the mid levels, you need the tanking EPO a few days before (otherwise that cold is going to get mixed up and pushed off to the east). This past winter storm had exactly that, 5 STD EPO tank a few days before the storm.... 1 to 2 Standard Deviations isn't going to cut it IMHO

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1768392000-xhvR9D6TE14grb2.png

Follow the EPO forecast closely, it typically is the #1 teleconnection precursor for big winter storms in the southern plains

While I agree the -EPO is a great indicator, it is not always the case. Feb 2021 did not have a major dive before, during, or after.

Code: Select all

2021 01 01  144.10
2021 01 02  282.21
2021 01 03  318.06
2021 01 04  267.71
2021 01 05  273.33
2021 01 06  261.38
2021 01 07  162.70
2021 01 08   87.99
2021 01 09   46.86
2021 01 10  170.47
2021 01 11  239.72
2021 01 12  247.57
2021 01 13  214.15
2021 01 14   88.49
2021 01 15  151.49
2021 01 16   86.89
2021 01 17   58.29
2021 01 18  -48.06
2021 01 19    0.37
2021 01 20  -14.91
2021 01 21  -75.51
2021 01 22  -79.36
2021 01 23   -4.28
2021 01 24   42.98
2021 01 25   36.78
2021 01 26   15.97
2021 01 27  -49.46
2021 01 28   21.72
2021 01 29  183.50
2021 01 30  134.96
2021 01 31  -73.45
2021 02 01 -153.06
2021 02 02  -88.37
2021 02 03  -18.42
2021 02 04  -42.89
2021 02 05 -110.34
2021 02 06  -98.65
2021 02 07  -34.26
2021 02 08  -22.86
2021 02 09  -33.24
2021 02 10  -61.17
2021 02 11  -44.40
2021 02 12   -8.26
2021 02 13   24.49
2021 02 14   97.49
2021 02 15  179.46
2021 02 16  169.60
2021 02 17  111.90
2021 02 18  162.43
2021 02 19  205.77

Very true, the negative 5 plus AO can take over the entire Northern Hemisphere pattern

GEFS AO forecast getting into top 10 territory on several members now . Very intriguing!

year month day ao_index_cdas
1977 1 15 -7.432610035
1977 1 16 -7.331215858
1977 1 14 -7.310880184
1977 1 13 -6.520362854
1970 3 5 -6.364555359
1985 1 19 -6.226099014
1977 1 17 -6.168218136
1970 3 6 -6.114381313
1964 6 20 -5.992156506


https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/ao/box/1769688000-VpmbaeORt10grb2.png

Am I reading the table correctly - the 10th most negative AO happened in JUNE? That's pretty impressive. Will have to go back and research that one.

[orangeblood]

To back up txtwister, the AO arguably is even more important in February for cold than the EPO is, which is the reason it raises an eyebrow the upcoming -AO. Using DFW history 1978, 2010, 2021, and even the coldest blast of last year, occurred because of severe -AO, where the EPO was meager in all of these cases. -AO's near the end of the season have more influence because source region is vastly colder and expanse is greater than early winter.

https://i.imgur.com/S7nTIBn.png

None of these cases accounted for any dive in -EPO, though some Pacific favorability is definitely helpful which there should be. -EPO is great for ice, -AO is better for snow.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Yep, that looks right - diving deeper into Analogs this looks to be the case. EPO bigger influence front months of winter with AO back ended, more mature airmass. These top analogs now popping up are really impressive, 2nd half of Feb into March could go to the extreme

[bubba hotep]

To back up txtwister, the AO arguably is even more important in February for cold than the EPO is, which is the reason it raises an eyebrow the upcoming -AO. Using DFW history 1978, 2010, 2021, and even the coldest blast of last year, occurred because of severe -AO, where the EPO was meager in all of these cases. -AO's near the end of the season have more influence because source region is vastly colder and expanse is greater than early winter.

https://i.imgur.com/S7nTIBn.png

None of these cases accounted for any dive in -EPO, though some Pacific favorability is definitely helpful which there should be. -EPO is great for ice, -AO is better for snow.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Yep, that looks right - diving deeper into Analogs this looks to be the case. EPO bigger influence front months of winter with AO back ended, more mature airmass. These top analogs now popping up are really impressive, 2nd half of Feb into March could go to the extreme

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cd73_101_145_97_27_15_47_5_prcp.png

Euro Weeklies support the widespread cold. Add the obvious caveat that the ensembles smooth the looks in the longer range.

 https://x.com/whatisthisrds/status/2017263724936016010

[Lagreeneyes03]

The Carolinas are about to get walloped this weekend with big time snow. My aunt in Charlotte could get several inches. I'll watch live on the Weather Channel.

It's delaying a NASCAR exhibition race this weekend in Winston-Salem as well. They think they're going to do things on Sunday instead of Saturday. I seriously doubt it.

[Ntxw]

To back up txtwister, the AO arguably is even more important in February for cold than the EPO is, which is the reason it raises an eyebrow the upcoming -AO. Using DFW history 1978, 2010, 2021, and even the coldest blast of last year, occurred because of severe -AO, where the EPO was meager in all of these cases. -AO's near the end of the season have more influence because source region is vastly colder and expanse is greater than early winter.

https://i.imgur.com/S7nTIBn.png

None of these cases accounted for any dive in -EPO, though some Pacific favorability is definitely helpful which there should be. -EPO is great for ice, -AO is better for snow.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Yep, that looks right - diving deeper into Analogs this looks to be the case. EPO bigger influence front months of winter with AO back ended, more mature airmass. These top analogs now popping up are really impressive, 2nd half of Feb into March could go to the extreme

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cd73_101_145_97_27_15_47_5_prcp.png

Which is the look cpc analogs are giving. Typically in a Nina they are pretty much headstrong on warm south cool north, but this configuration shows what the horizon may look like.

[Quixotic]

To back up txtwister, the AO arguably is even more important in February for cold than the EPO is, which is the reason it raises an eyebrow the upcoming -AO. Using DFW history 1978, 2010, 2021, and even the coldest blast of last year, occurred because of severe -AO, where the EPO was meager in all of these cases. -AO's near the end of the season have more influence because source region is vastly colder and expanse is greater than early winter.

https://i.imgur.com/S7nTIBn.png

None of these cases accounted for any dive in -EPO, though some Pacific favorability is definitely helpful which there should be. -EPO is great for ice, -AO is better for snow.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Yep, that looks right - diving deeper into Analogs this looks to be the case. EPO bigger influence front months of winter with AO back ended, more mature airmass. These top analogs now popping up are really impressive, 2nd half of Feb into March could go to the extreme

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cd73_101_145_97_27_15_47_5_prcp.png

That’s a list of all timers as analogs.

[rwfromkansas]

Side note, cold front came through today. Thought I was going to get a heat stroke but thank goodness it is cold again now...

Seriously. I was sweating at 58 degrees earlier. It's weird, the older I get the more warmth bothers me. For some people it's the opposite, like my wife, daughter and 57. I think I need help.

My wife used to be like me and keep things cold. Now she gets mad when I turn it down from 72 to 68 too early in the evening. Lol. It's scientifically proven that's the best sleep temp roughly. You need cold as the humidity rises in the evening.

Anyway, back to work today, but I will say I was shocked by how the north-facing homes had their driveways still covered like an ice rink. The staying power of this sleet was something.

Fingers crossed we get some actual snow before winter ends. I almost used my snow shovel yesterday for the first time but decided it wasn't needed since it was melting so well.

[gpsnowman]

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2017288929276228090?s=20
Ryan Maue

[Ntxw]

From a different angle. Conversely sometimes using anti-logs (the opposite pattern) can also help with probabilities. A group of warm analogs below you can see the 500mb pattern during such periods where winter ended in February. The ridges and troughs are total opposites of the upcoming planetary pattern expected. Which tells you a quick, abrupt end to winter in February ++AO is the lowest outcome. Sorry wxman57 no 90s for you. We wouldn't call cold if nothing showed it, so really can't call warmth either if nothing has it.





These tools are important in forecasting and how one can avoid the ups and downs of model-ology and beat them.

[Stratton23]

One thing im noticing in the ensembles outside of the cold coming back, is the formation of a more persistent west- based - NAO block instead of east based, if thats the case, a west based - NAO is really going to force the storm track south and possibly could have systems digging more out to our west again, it is my understanding that we want a west based -NAO over an east based on

[Cpv17]

One thing im noticing in the ensembles outside of the cold coming back, is the formation of a more persistent west- based - NAO block instead of east based, if thats the case, a west based - NAO is really going to force the storm track south and possibly could have systems digging more out to our west again, it is my understanding that we want a west based -NAO over an east based on

Yep, Ntxw always talks about that.

[TomballEd]

Op Euro suggests a heavier shower or two is possible in SETX, despite air and DP only near 60F and very little MUCAPE. Below the ensemble. Because Euro op and ensembles wetter. I hope this is more Euro than GFS. We can always use more rain.