Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

All this talk of the canadian warming, yet ensembles have the pacific jet relaxing and retracting back toward eastern asia at the end of the month, which is why we see that -EPO/-NAO showing up, its a head scratcher lol

[HockeyTx82]

All this talk of the canadian warming, yet ensembles have the pacific jet relaxing and retracting back toward eastern asia at the end of the month, which is why we see that -EPO/-NAO showing up, its a head scratcher lol

People need clicks, it's all monetary. As Hillary Clinton would say follow the money

[Golfisnteasy7575]

All this talk of the canadian warming, yet ensembles have the pacific jet relaxing and retracting back toward eastern asia at the end of the month, which is why we see that -EPO/-NAO showing up, its a head scratcher lol

If we are going to have cpf, the wpo has to be negative and actually the epo modulates the wpo to an extent. Imo, that the main step. If and when they trend negative, watch out below lol

[Cpv17]

Adding to the vague part, what the hell is Canadian warming? Never heard that before. Is it a surface feature or a something to do with a SSW?

I’m with you on the never heard of it before lol same here.

[Throckmorton]

Cpv17 I hope so, because the last thing we need is another month of anomlous warmth ( technically the first half of december was near average) and a canadian warming would definitely be the worst case for that

I've never read anything about "Canadian strat warming" = warmth? Ridge and warmth in the stratosphere is a form of disrupting the polar vortex, not sure how that translates to Canada warming in the troposphere? Perhaps someone with better insight can provide some literature. My basic understanding is warmth and expansion of the stratosphere leads to shrinking and cooling of the troposphere since they have adverse effects on one another?

Read scholar Judah Cohen's information.

[https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation]

You can alao do a Google Scholar search to find his many papers.

A Canadian warming is a closed area of warmth in the upper stratosphere at the same level as the stratospheric polar vortex but apart from it. It occurs almost every year.

[Throckmorton]

All this talk of the canadian warming, yet ensembles have the pacific jet relaxing and retracting back toward eastern asia at the end of the month, which is why we see that -EPO/-NAO showing up, its a head scratcher lol

People need clicks, it's all monetary. As Hillary Clinton would say follow the money

Who is corrupt?

[Throckmorton]

Ntxw Judah Cohen is great in that department, if you have twitter or X , he a great person to look up on their, has his own free blogs he posts every week and has done an incredible amount of research on the PV, Canadian Warmings/ SSWE’s, he actually predicts what the PV will do, very great dude with good resources to back up his posts

I actually just looked him up and it's a bit puzzling because on one hand the tweet that appears to be making the rounds within the X weather community talks about the Canadian warming as a hinderance to winter weather/cold making a return but then in his blog and within the discussion thread he acknowledges that a stretching of the PV can still deliver cold into the US? Isn't that what some of the long-range models are indicating?

So, is winter over then? Answer...No. Lol

A Canadian warming does not occupy the same space as the stratospheric polar vortex. The forecast maps show a stretch of the latter with the cold air dumped into the north Atlantic while the anomalous surface warmth triggered by the Canadian warming affects the U. S.

[Throckmorton]

Ntxw Judah Cohen is great in that department, if you have twitter or X , he a great person to look up on their, has his own free blogs he posts every week and has done an incredible amount of research on the PV, Canadian Warmings/ SSWE’s, he actually predicts what the PV will do, very great dude with good resources to back up his posts

I actually just looked him up and it's a bit puzzling because on one hand the tweet that appears to be making the rounds within the X weather community talks about the Canadian warming as a hinderance to winter weather but then in his blog and within the discussion thread he acknowledges that a stretching of the PV can still deliver cold into the US?

So, is winter over then? Answer...No. Lol

I've been confused over his stuff before as well. Definitely way smarter than I am, but sometimes not consistent. From all the papers and notes I've read, from him included, any disruption in the stratosphere (warming) leads to a weakened PV and by default a more wavey troposphere.

A Canadian warming is not a disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex.

[Throckmorton]

At this link is the forecast of the Canadian warming at 10 mb, where the stratospheric polar vortex also resides. Go to the map for 06Z, Dec. 31.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2024121818&fh=6

[Stratton23]

Given what the ensembles show, I really dont see this canadian warming having much of an impact, especially aince it looks to be a rather short event, Judah is a great resource, but dont think hes going to be right here, and their are definitely other respectable weather folks that don’t necessarily agree with his take today about the warming, lets just say its pretty debatable lol

[Throckmorton]

Given what the ensembles show, I really dont see this canadian warming having much of an impact, especially aince it looks to be a rather short event, Judah is a great resource, but dont think hes going to be right here, and their are definitely other respectable weather folks that don’t necessarily agree with his take today about the warming, lets just say its pretty debatable lol

He's THE expert in this area of meteorology.

[Stratton23]

Throckmorton expert does not mean always right, he even mentioned this canadian warming event is likely going to be short lived and could possibly lead to a big disruption of the PV down the road, but their are other factors in play that could work against that, i have no reason to believe the first half of january or the whole month will be warm just based on the canadian warming

[Stratton23]

On the other note, the GEFS today is much faster with the progression of the MJO, and has us going into phase 7 by the 26th

[txtwister78]

Ntxw Judah Cohen is great in that department, if you have twitter or X , he a great person to look up on their, has his own free blogs he posts every week and has done an incredible amount of research on the PV, Canadian Warmings/ SSWE’s, he actually predicts what the PV will do, very great dude with good resources to back up his posts

I actually just looked him up and it's a bit puzzling because on one hand the tweet that appears to be making the rounds within the X weather community talks about the Canadian warming as a hinderance to winter weather/cold making a return but then in his blog and within the discussion thread he acknowledges that a stretching of the PV can still deliver cold into the US? Isn't that what some of the long-range models are indicating?

So, is winter over then? Answer...No. Lol

A Canadian warming does not occupy the same space as the stratospheric polar vortex. The forecast maps show a stretch of the latter with the cold air dumped into the north Atlantic while the anomalous surface warmth triggered by the Canadian warming affects the U. S.

That's good to know, but I don't think I ever made that direct correlation although he does link them in his blog by stating "What is also interesting about Canadian warmings they almost always transition to another PV disruption, either a stretched PV or the larger sudden stratospheric warming".

I've never heard of the guy honestly until you brought him up via his posts, but good news is we have something to watch to see how it all plays out. Nice thing about weather forecasting is you can always find different opinions from folks in the industry and learn from them as a result either way.

I don't know what forecast maps you're looking at that far out in regard to "cold air being dumped into the N Atlantic", but if you could kindly post those, I would appreciate it.

[Stratton23]

Very interesting trend im noticing, tonights global mode runs are breaking down the aleutian trough pattern faster in the pacific, at day 9-10 the CMC and GFS have more ridging in the North pacific, trough is weaker, still targeting around the 1st for the switch, but interesting trends tonight regardless

[Throckmorton]

I actually just looked him up and it's a bit puzzling because on one hand the tweet that appears to be making the rounds within the X weather community talks about the Canadian warming as a hinderance to winter weather/cold making a return but then in his blog and within the discussion thread he acknowledges that a stretching of the PV can still deliver cold into the US? Isn't that what some of the long-range models are indicating?

So, is winter over then? Answer...No. Lol

A Canadian warming does not occupy the same space as the stratospheric polar vortex. The forecast maps show a stretch of the latter with the cold air dumped into the north Atlantic while the anomalous surface warmth triggered by the Canadian warming affects the U. S.

That's good to know, but I don't think I ever made that direct correlation although he does link them in his blog by stating "What is also interesting about Canadian warmings they almost always transition to another PV disruption, either a stretched PV or the larger sudden stratospheric warming".

I've never heard of the guy honestly until you brought him up via his posts, but good news is we have something to watch to see how it all plays out. Nice thing about weather forecasting is you can always find different opinions from folks in the industry and learn from them as a result either way.

I don't know what forecast maps you're looking at that far out in regard to "cold air being dumped into the N Atlantic", but if you could kindly post those, I would appreciate it.

Judah Cohen

[Stratton23]

The teleconnections are starting to line up on all ensemble guidance , EPO, NAO, AO, WPO and the PNA all negative, some even tank negative

[txtwister78]

A Canadian warming does not occupy the same space as the stratospheric polar vortex. The forecast maps show a stretch of the latter with the cold air dumped into the north Atlantic while the anomalous surface warmth triggered by the Canadian warming affects the U. S.

That's good to know, but I don't think I ever made that direct correlation although he does link them in his blog by stating "What is also interesting about Canadian warmings they almost always transition to another PV disruption, either a stretched PV or the larger sudden stratospheric warming".

I've never heard of the guy honestly until you brought him up via his posts, but good news is we have something to watch to see how it all plays out. Nice thing about weather forecasting is you can always find different opinions from folks in the industry and learn from them as a result either way.

I don't know what forecast maps you're looking at that far out in regard to "cold air being dumped into the N Atlantic", but if you could kindly post those, I would appreciate it.

Judah Cohen

Yeah I believe you've made that intro already several post prior, but hey at least we know who your go to is for weather information. Keep us updated please on how that all works out. Nothing wrong with different sources of information. In the meantime, let's all enjoy tracking it.

[Tejas89]

Starting to smell like last winter. Real arctic cold snaps are so rare and unusual now they make news headlines, and we only see 1 or 2 per winter if we’re lucky.

Believe it or not we used to get arctic fronts and snow in December, even have chilly Novembers. Not always but it wasn’t that rare. Leaves would actually start turning in October in Texas.

[txtwister78]

The teleconnections are starting to line up on all ensemble guidance , EPO, NAO, AO, WPO and the PNA all negative, some even tank negative

Yeah lots of blocking in all the right places as we move into Jan to signal a reversal from torch to colder into the US. Fairly good agreement from ensembles. 2nd wk of Jan timeframe continues to look interesting.