Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

While we await pattern change some notable records have occured in December. Nationally December may end up the warmest on record for the lower 48, and North America will be lowest snow cover for the month. Not sure Canada's records but given the ridging up there and lack of cold it should be warmest for them as well.

Admittedly, a warm December was probable given strong Nino tendency. Kind of got fluked by the AO and NAO early. I had thought we might make it work and get the cooler outcome like a 2009. Once again got humbled, you don't bet warmer month, wrong a lot of the time. Not an indictment going forward but reflecting and learning mistakes.

The best way to learn is from making mistakes. At least for me anyway.

[bubba hotep]

Huge differences at D10 b/w the Canadian and the GFS. GFS has SW ridging and NA torch, while the Canadian has a big system dropping into the SW with a decent amount of cold air

[Stratton23]

The GFS is struggling big time with the pattern and it is way overdoing ridging, even its own ensemble is way different, I would even worry about the operational GFS, we see this every winter with these pattern changes, sometimes its the euro, sometimes its the GFS, it happens

[rwfromkansas]

Heading to Kansas for my family Christmas and then turning around for my wife’s in Abilene. I may miss snow on Christmas which is a bummer. Shows a 50 percent chance in the NWS forecast from Wichita currently.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro agrees with the CMC on another system on new years eve, gets very close to showing wintry precipitation as well, just need that trough to dig a little more SW

[Quixotic]

Differences indicate pattern change. It’s a good thing.

[txtwister78]

Hello all. Hope everyone is having a great holiday season.

Some encouraging signs today from the short-range guidance in terms of bringing some beneficial rain (fingers crossed) for some of the drought-stricken areas of South-Central Texas. Models now hinting at 1-2 inches. Definitely didn't look as promising via the globals earlier in the week and so we're trending in the right direction at least less than 48 hours out.

[Gotwood]

The lack of snow/cold in the USA is pretty crazy. I usually go chase snow this time of year in Colorado but the forecast isn’t calling for much of anything the next two weeks.

[starsfan65]

The lack of snow/cold in the USA is pretty crazy. I usually go chase snow this time of year in Colorado but the forecast isn’t calling for much of anything the next two weeks.

So quiet in here

[gpsnowman]

The lack of snow/cold in the USA is pretty crazy. I usually go chase snow this time of year in Colorado but the forecast isn’t calling for much of anything the next two weeks.

So quiet in here

All the procrastinating men on the forum are getting their Christmas shopping started.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Strong storm system will move across Texas over the next 48 hours.

Water vapor images show a well defined upper level storm system over AZ this morning moving ESE toward western NM and this system will move into TX over the next 24 hours Water Vapor Satellite Loop for United States | Tropical Tidbits . Additionally, a strong upper level disturbance in the sub-tropical jet stream is located over central MX and this feature will quickly approach southwest Texas and SE TX late this afternoon and evening.

Guidance continues to show the rapid development of numerous showers and thunderstorms starting this afternoon around Matagorda Bay and expanding across much of SE TX late this afternoon and evening. Moisture profiles will increase at both the upper levels from the Pacific and the low levels from the Gulf of Mexico today with PWS peaking in the 1.5-1.7 inch range tonight into Sunday. Given the incoming lift across this amount of moisture widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely. It appeared yesterday that there would be a round this evening and then a second round with the front on Sunday…however more recent trends show less of a break in activity overnight as strong lift continues to generate activity. Additionally, some of the short range guidance have been hinting at the potential for cell training especially along and south of I-10 and around Galveston Bay tonight into Sunday.

With the high moisture levels in place, sustained lift for a 12-18 hour period and potential for cell training the threat for heavy rainfall has increased. WPC has added the southern portion of SE TX into a slight risk for flash flooding tonight into Sunday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected with isolated higher totals under any cell training. HREF mean rainfall over much of the area is 2-3 inches with isolated totals nearing 5 inches. Concerns for any widespread flash flooding remain on the low side, but isolated areas of street flooding will be possible under the heavy rainfall areas tonight into Sunday.

A cold front will sweep from west to east across the area on Sunday ending the threat for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall…but there continues to be timing differences on how quickly this happens with some guidance ending much of the activity before noon and others lingering into the mid to late afternoon hours.


Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[bubba hotep]

12z HRRR looking good for the eastern portion of the state

[Brent]

A low of 55 this morning hopefully it at least rains good

Though I will say things are still turning colder beginning on Christmas and no sign of getting warmer

[bubba hotep]

The 00z Euro EPS has probably the strongest winter wx signal we have seen this winter for areas north of I20. However, it isn't really pinning down a tight timeframe and has small clusters spread out from Jan 1 - 7. Overall, it indicates a shift towards a colder pattern for the Southern Plains, and any given storm system might be dynamic enough to pull off a winter wx event.

[Stratton23]

12z CMC is very cold with a couple of systems potentially interacting with the cold, the 12z GFS is very cold at the end of its run

[Ntxw]

After the activity to start the month, looks like a big SSW is in the cards now if not probable. <~10m/s at 60mb. Could be a big cold wave once it propagates. SPV stretching well south onto the North American side.

[gpsnowman]

After the activity to start the month, looks like a big SSW is in the cards now if not probable. >~10m/s at 60mb. Could be a big cold wave once it propagates. SPV stretching well south onto the North American side.

Isn't there a several week lag time for cold after a SSW? Similar to 2021?

[Ntxw]

After the activity to start the month, looks like a big SSW is in the cards now if not probable. >~10m/s at 60mb. Could be a big cold wave once it propagates. SPV stretching well south onto the North American side.

Isn't there a several week lag time for cold after a SSW? Similar to 2021?

There's no definitive time. If it's already colder, it won't take so long. But if we want to be conservative and use conventional timing then yeah the end of January to start February could feature a sig cold snap. Middle of month could be a candidate time zone.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

After the activity to start the month, looks like a big SSW is in the cards now if not probable. >~10m/s at 60mb. Could be a big cold wave once it propagates. SPV stretching well south onto the North American side.

Isn't there a several week lag time for cold after a SSW? Similar to 2021?

In Nina and early season, yes… that’s has happened recently.

In Nino and in peak climo, typically not, although it could take 2-3 weeks.

[gpsnowman]

After the activity to start the month, looks like a big SSW is in the cards now if not probable. >~10m/s at 60mb. Could be a big cold wave once it propagates. SPV stretching well south onto the North American side.

Isn't there a several week lag time for cold after a SSW? Similar to 2021?

There's no definitive time. If it's already colder, it won't take so long. But if we want to be conservative and use conventional timing then yeah the end of January to start February could feature a sig cold snap. Middle of month could be a candidate time zone.

Excellent. Thanks for the info. I guess each one has its own characteristics during and after.