Texas Winter 2015-2016

[WeatherGuesser]

The snow is confined to west Texas and the Panhandle.

Snow should be confined to Canada where it belongs.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Wet and warm/muggy will be the theme this week including Christmas

Large tap of sub-tropical moisture is overhead this morning with the moisture tap extending from Hawaii to the eastern Great Lakes. The entire eastern 2/3rds of the nation continues to bake in unseasonably warm temperatures and this will continue this week. In fact many locations over the eastern US will likely establish high temperature records on Christmas Day. Locally, the tap of Pacific moisture will remain in place off week and weak to moderate intensity short waves will transverse this flow leading to periods of showers and thunderstorms. One such wave is crossing the area currently leading to strong thunderstorms over Harris and Fort Bend Counties. These stronger storms will be moving eastward this morning into Galveston, Liberty, Chambers, and Brazoria Counties. Meso scale models show a general lull in activity after this first wave this morning, but would not rule out a few showers throughout the day as moisture continues to spill into the area from the SW and increase from the Gulf. Additionally, with the plume coming up from our SW, there could certainly be a disturbance that is not resolved by the models coming across MX which could result in a round of showers…really at any time over the next several days.

A weak…very weak…cool front will move into the region tonight and likely stall along the US 59 corridor early Tuesday. Another short wave trough will approach the area from the SW Tuesday afternoon and the short range models show the air mass becoming increasingly unstable. Could see a round of fairly active weather Tuesday afternoon and evening over the area if the mid level capping erodes. Given how active the radar has become in the last 30 minutes over Harris and Fort Bend Counties, I suspect a fairly active Tuesday afternoon period. Strong to severe storms will be possible along with very heavy rainfall. Best chances for severe weather will be along and north of I-10 along the slowly retreating frontal boundary and where any mid level capping will be weakest.

Wednesday will likely be the best day of the week as the short wave departs and moisture levels fall briefly….possibly allowing a few breaks in the multi cloud decks over the region. Any breaks will allow temperatures to soar into the 80’s which will be close to record highs for late December.

Christmas Eve/Day:
Powerful upper level storm system digs into the SW US and begins to really ramp up moisture return over SE TX starting on the 24th. Expect showers by late in the day and more widespread activity on the 25th. Still some differences on the track of the main storm system and exactly when it moves across TX the weekend after Christmas, but a very active period looks in store with strong/severe thunderstorms and very heavy rainfall at some point the 26/27th. Temperatures will continue to be incredibly warm and humid for this time of year with lows in the 60’s/70’s and highs in the upper 70’s/low 80’s. Overall it looks very warm and muggy with sea fog, low clouds, passing showers and maybe a thunderstorm.

Sea Fog:
Will likely see sea fog develop today over the 0-20NM waters and then plague the coast for the next 3-6 days as onshore flow maintains extremely warm dewpoints over somewhat cool shelf waters. Sea fog will move inland each evening and retreat toward the coast each day around 1000am-noon. Some coastal locations may stay socked in all day any day this week. Fog may certainly be thick enough to cause vessel traffic concerns in Galveston Bay entrance channel and in the mouth of the Houston Ship Channel.

Temperatures:
The entire week will feature well above normal temperatures with lows in the 60’s…maybe 70’s on a few mornings and highs in the 70’s…maybe 80’s on Wednesday and Thursday. These temperatures are running anywhere from 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Hydro:
Still dealing with run-off from the last few weeks over eastern TX with flood waves moving down the Brazos and Trinity Basins. Flood wave on the Brazos has moved through Fort Bend and much of Brazoria County with the river in recession along much of the basin. Upstream releases will keep the river elevated for the next several days.

On the Trinity the river is above flood stage from south of Dallas to Trinity Bay and flooding will continue for the next several days as flood flows move downstream. Flood gate operations have been ongoing and will continue at Lake Livingston and this is resulting in widespread flooding over portions of Liberty County around Liberty which will continue through the end of the week.

Concern is growing that additional widespread heavy rainfall next weekend could produce large amounts of run-off into already high rivers resulting in more flooding.

[wxman57]

The 00Z Euro keeps the snow in the Panhandle, for the most part, with a little around Lubbock. Overnight runs of the GFS are similar, keeping the snow well to the west of the D-FW area. That appears to be the most likely scenario. However, if the upper-low center does track across the D-FW area then thickness values would be favorable for snow. But will there be any moisture left?

Current (06Z) GFS meteogram for D-FW has lots of rain next weekend with temps in the mid to upper 40s, followed by a light freeze on Monday.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Still a ways out, but NYE and NYD look chilly....

[Agua]

El nino has completely screwed duck season. DIE!

[hriverajr]

Still a ways out, but NYE and NYD look chilly....



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_44.png

That would be bad for us lovers of winter weather.. last map.. 30's up into Canada.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah, I noticed that. I need to look into NW Canada to see our source region during this time.

[Ntxw]

Man I am seeing a lot of fat squirrels. I hope this means they are gearing up for a harsh Jan-Feb-March. I've never seen this this stuffed on a consistent basis. Or maybe they are eating more due to the abundance nuts and acorns from trees benefited by rains this year?

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS going with El Paso Sunday morning to south central KS on Monday morning with some cool air on Monday after the rain but nothing very cold. Without the upper low going overhead we will have trouble even approaching freezing with this system. Looks like a general 2-5" rain.

12Z GEM is further east but still keeps winter precip in NW TX.

[starsfan65]

I still disagree with the last 2 GFS runs.

[srainhoutx]

May need to keep an eye on the New Years Eve/January 1st timeframe. The dynamical and ensemble guidance have been hinting a 1045+ High Pressure cell over Colorado into the Central Plains with a noisy sub tropical jet over Texas for about 5 days now. A shallow Arctic airmass with over running Pacific moisture suggests icing potential.

[Ralph's Weather]

May need to keep an eye on the New Years Eve/January 1st timeframe. The dynamical and ensemble guidance have been hinting a 1045+ High Pressure cell over Colorado into the Central Plains with a noisy sub tropical jet over Texas for about 5 days now. A shallow Arctic airmass with over running Pacific moisture suggests icing potential.

The annual NYE icing threat is here again.

[Brent]

May need to keep an eye on the New Years Eve/January 1st timeframe. The dynamical and ensemble guidance have been hinting a 1045+ High Pressure cell over Colorado into the Central Plains with a noisy sub tropical jet over Texas for about 5 days now. A shallow Arctic airmass with over running Pacific moisture suggests icing potential.

The annual NYE icing threat is here again.

There's a college football playoff game in Arlington too...

[Ralph's Weather]

There's a college football playoff game in Arlington too...

Hope it is not like the SB was.

[wxman57]

Alright! Snow for Houston New Year's Day! Given its recent long-range performance, I see absolutely no reason to question this 11-day forecast.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows snow for Pahhandle of Texas with the low turning north.

It was looking like maybe some snow for DFW but based on the last several runs of the GFS and the ECMWF, it is looking a lot less likely:

I see absolutely no reason to question this 11-day forecast.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... frzn_us_42

[Brent]

The GFS has close to 5 inches of rain in the Friday-Sunday timeframe at DFW now...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Man I am seeing a lot of fat squirrels. I hope this means they are gearing up for a harsh Jan-Feb-March. I've never seen this this stuffed on a consistent basis. Or maybe they are eating more due to the abundance nuts and acorns from trees benefited by rains this year?

I've noticed the same thing. Our cows are also very wooly with really think hair as well.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has about 2 feet of snow in the TX Panhandle this weekend. Going to be quite a storm. No snow for the D-FW area on the 12z Euro. The one chance for snow there may be when the upper low passes by on Monday morning. Moisture may be limited, though.

[Tireman4]

Alright! Snow for Houston New Year's Day! Given its recent long-range performance, I see absolutely no reason to question this 11-day forecast.

The more he taunts us. Sigh. This morning's bike ride was miserable. 21 tortured miles. The PWATs have to be out of sight. God, this run will suck today.