Texas Winter 2017-2018

[MississippiWx]

Just got done watching it snow here in McComb, MS for over an hour! It even came down hard with big flakes. Nothing on the radar ever. Big surprise!

[wxman57]

South Texas Storms and I have been working overtime the past 24 hours trying to squeeze a little snow with Tuesday's cold front. There isn't going to be a lot of moisture available, but it only takes 0.1" of moisture to make an inch of snow. There is at least some hope for the DFW area next Tuesday afternoon. Down south here in Houston, I'm thinking that the air aloft will be too warm for snow, though the 12Z EC suggests that there might be the slightest chance of a flurry as the precip ends. I'd expect cold rain with some sleet pellets mixed in along the coast from Houston to Lake Charles.

It sure feels refreshing outside today! I think I might get into my swimsuit and catch a few rays in the backyard when I get home.

[stormlover2013]

lol WXMAN is always cautious when its 5 days away lol.. winter weather is tough to forecast down here

[Ntxw]

Going back the Canadian started all this funny business. It held on to it the longest but then caved to the suppression zone. Maybe it will turn out to be right after all from the mid week runs. It will be interesting if we start seeing higher totals like it was showing.

[MississippiWx]

South Texas Storms and I have been working overtime the past 24 hours trying to squeeze a little snow with Tuesday's cold front. There isn't going to be a lot of moisture available, but it only takes 0.1" of moisture to make an inch of snow. There is at least some hope for the DFW area next Tuesday afternoon. Down south here in Houston, I'm thinking that the air aloft will be too warm for snow, though the 12Z EC suggests that there might be the slightest chance of a flurry as the precip ends. I'd expect cold rain with some sleet pellets mixed in along the coast from Houston to Lake Charles.

It sure feels refreshing outside today! I think I might get into my swimsuit and catch a few rays in the backyard when I get home.

The snow further north should be of the powdery variety if models prove correct. Ratios might be a little higher than we are used to in the South if we can get enough moisture.

[South Texas Storms]

South Texas Storms and I have been working overtime the past 24 hours trying to squeeze a little snow with Tuesday's cold front. There isn't going to be a lot of moisture available, but it only takes 0.1" of moisture to make an inch of snow. There is at least some hope for the DFW area next Tuesday afternoon. Down south here in Houston, I'm thinking that the air aloft will be too warm for snow, though the 12Z EC suggests that there might be the slightest chance of a flurry as the precip ends. I'd expect cold rain with some sleet pellets mixed in along the coast from Houston to Lake Charles.

It sure feels refreshing outside today! I think I might get into my swimsuit and catch a few rays in the backyard when I get home.

We are indeed working overtime to continue the colder and wetter trends in the models. We want this next event to bring snow to everyone in the Southern US!

[South Texas Storms]

Going back the Canadian started all this funny business. It held on to it the longest but then caved to the suppression zone. Maybe it will turn out to be right after all from the mid week runs. It will be interesting if we start seeing higher totals like it was showing.

I was talking to my coworkers about that earlier today. The Canadian has probably been one of the best models with the 500mb pattern a week out. Sometimes it then drops a system, while others trend back towards it. It's usually too cold on temps, but it's flow pattern forecast has greatly improved over the last few years.

[Ntxw]

Starting to get into the NAM's range. Once we narrow down the precip (if any) then likely there will be more in depth discussion about temperatures and how cold it is going to get, probably impressive.

[wxman57]

lol WXMAN is always cautious when its 5 days away lol.. winter weather is tough to forecast down here

I speak from experience - 38 years forecasting weather (professionally) here in Houston. Also, the models have tended to suck (technical met term) this far out this winter.

[Cpv17]

lol WXMAN is always cautious when its 5 days away lol.. winter weather is tough to forecast down here

I speak from experience - 38 years forecasting weather (professionally) here in Houston. Also, the models have tended to suck (technical met term) this far out this winter.

I have a question for you. Back when it snowed in SETX in early December, what were you saying 4-5 days before it happened?

[stormlover2013]

no doubt!!!! heck this could flip on sunday.....but if this is showing it on sunday then game on!!! I will be giddy

[stormlover2013]

lol WXMAN is always cautious when its 5 days away lol.. winter weather is tough to forecast down here

I speak from experience - 38 years forecasting weather (professionally) here in Houston. Also, the models have tended to suck (technical met term) this far out this winter.

I have a question for you. Back when it snowed in SETX in early December, what were you saying 4-5 days before it happened?

He said the same stuff lol, you have to be really conservative with winter weather in this area, always hard to forecast, remember one year it showed snow and the models were all over it, but all the ingredients didn't come together. Always hard to forecast

[Ntxw]

no doubt!!!! heck this could flip on sunday.....but if this is showing it on sunday then game on!!! I will be giddy

By then the store shelves will have been devoid of bread and milk

[orangeblood]

NAM isn't on board - much stronger with Arctic Front and very minimal precip behind it, hmmmm....

[Cpv17]

Starting to get into the NAM's range. Once we narrow down the precip (if any) then likely there will be more in depth discussion about temperatures and how cold it is going to get, probably impressive.

Wow, that’s looking wild!

[Cpv17]

NAM isn't on board - much stronger with Arctic Front and very minimal precip behind it, hmmmm....

Is it possible that it’s too strong for any precip?

[Theepicman116]

NAM isn't on board - much stronger with Arctic Front and very minimal precip behind it, hmmmm....

I'm sure it will get it's act together soon. Has to be very soon. As in on Sunday soon.

[Portastorm]

Most interesting part of the afternoon AFD just issued by NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

The focus then shifts to Monday night into Tuesday. An upper level
shortwave rotating through the larger trough sends another surge of
arctic air south with the cold front moving into the Hill Country
around midnight Monday night and the remainder of South Central Texas
overnight into early Tuesday morning. Isentropic lift rapidly
develops over the frontal surface as moisture levels increase
further. Rain should begin overspreading the region from north to
south beginning on Monday evening. Models differ slightly on the
timing and intensity of the freezing temperatures Tuesday morning,
with the 12z Euro showing colder temperatures than the 12z GFS, but
both models show surface temperatures falling below freezing Tuesday
morning across the Hill Country and our northern counties with the
freezing line extending southward to roughly a Rocksprings to San
Antonio to Gonzales line by noon on Tuesday. In regards to
precipitation type, the GFS shows a warm layer aloft, suggesting a
transition to freezing rain or sleet for areas where surface
temperatures drop to or below freezing. The Euro shows an entire
sub freezing temperature profile for the northern counties,
suggesting the possibility of snow at these locations. At this point,
think freezing rain or sleet is more likely than snow. Temperatures
will not warm up much, if at all, on Tuesday afternoon. It is quite
possible temperatures in parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas
never rise above freezing, maintaining a chance for wintry
precipitation through the afternoon. Isentropic lift shuts off as a
slightly drier airmass filters in, ending the precipitation by
Tuesday night. Accumulated rainfall at this point is uncertain. The
12z GFS is much wetter than the 12z Euro. GFS ensemble mean shows up
to half an inch of QPF, with the Euro maintaining much less amounts.
At the present moment, WPC shows up to about a quarter of an inch.
Any possible icing amounts are even more uncertain, especially given
the fact that we are still about 3 and half days out from the event.
The primary question will be how much moisture remains in place after
surface temperatures drop below freezing.

[Ntxw]

NAM isn't on board - much stronger with Arctic Front and very minimal precip behind it, hmmmm....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_52.png

Is it possible that it’s too strong for any precip?

It is possible and why some runs the past few days were suppression. But it is 84hr NAM. Its strike zone is 48hrs or less especially with qpf. The end of its run is generally treated like a 200hr gfs.

[orangeblood]

NAM isn't on board - much stronger with Arctic Front and very minimal precip behind it, hmmmm....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_52.png

Is it possible that it’s too strong for any precip?

It is possible and why some runs the past few days were suppression. But it is 84hr NAM. Its strike zone is 48hrs or less especially with qpf. The end of its run is generally treated like a 200hr gfs.

Very true...it is just getting it's feet wet