Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cpv17]

Thunder sleet reported north of Leakey in Real County in the last 15 minutes. Oh where is Jim Cantore when you need him!

Close to Garner State Park, one of my favorite places in Texas! Awesome! That area of Texas rarely sees any exciting weather.

[Haris]

Sleet

[Ralph's Weather]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/zZHqqFk/3-AEA9047-6-D53-4-EEA-A2-F5-A0-FEFEAFC563.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/HTy2s3P/7911211-C-4371-48-FB-8-A11-1-A9-E46-E2-F623.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Ksvfs96/00-E2-E87-E-B7-E0-40-C2-99-E4-0-AE1-C920-F182.jpg [/url]

Sleet

Is it sleet or graupel looks pretty opaque to me.

[Ntxw]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/zZHqqFk/3-AEA9047-6-D53-4-EEA-A2-F5-A0-FEFEAFC563.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/HTy2s3P/7911211-C-4371-48-FB-8-A11-1-A9-E46-E2-F623.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Ksvfs96/00-E2-E87-E-B7-E0-40-C2-99-E4-0-AE1-C920-F182.jpg [/url]

Sleet

Is it sleet or graupel looks pretty opaque to me.

Graupel. Unfinished snow/melt/refreeze type stuff. Sleet is fairly round and smooth, much like small hail.

[Ralph's Weather]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/zZHqqFk/3-AEA9047-6-D53-4-EEA-A2-F5-A0-FEFEAFC563.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/HTy2s3P/7911211-C-4371-48-FB-8-A11-1-A9-E46-E2-F623.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Ksvfs96/00-E2-E87-E-B7-E0-40-C2-99-E4-0-AE1-C920-F182.jpg [/url]

Sleet

Is it sleet or graupel looks pretty opaque to me.

Graupel. Unfinished snow/melt/refreeze type stuff. Sleet is fairly round and smooth, much like small hail.

Yep, sleet is almost clear as it melts to liquid before refreezing, graupel never fully melts.

[harp]

And winter is not done by any stretch....models are going towards a strong Phase 8 by later next week and with a lot of cold air around in NA, there should be plenty to follow going forward!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Ok, at what point will this begin to show up in the global models? Tomorrow, next week? I'm just curious at to the thoughts of the knowledgeable folks in here. Thanks.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Well it's sunny in DFW, so I assume, as usual, it's nothing for us, unless of course it's 36 degrees and then we get our "just a cold rain". BRING ON SUMMER! I'm ready for it to be 100 already. Hopefully the heat comes early, comes often, and lasts til November.

[Ntxw]

And winter is not done by any stretch....models are going towards a strong Phase 8 by later next week and with a lot of cold air around in NA, there should be plenty to follow going forward!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Ok, at what point will this begin to show up in the global models? Tomorrow, next week? I'm just curious at to the thoughts of the knowledgeable folks in here. Thanks.

Depends on location. Areas west of the MS, particular Great Plains, Great Basin, Rockies, and Pacific Northwest looks to be in a good seat via -PNA. Might be some quick warm ups ahead of digging systems. Areas East of the MS or close by likely has seen the peak of their winter back in January with the +PNA.

[gboudx]

Well it's sunny in DFW, so I assume, as usual, it's nothing for us, unless of course it's 36 degrees and then we get our "just a cold rain". BRING ON SUMMER! I'm ready for it to be 100 already. Hopefully the heat comes early, comes often, and lasts til November.

You could always move to Phoenix. Take wxman57 with you.

[harp]

And winter is not done by any stretch....models are going towards a strong Phase 8 by later next week and with a lot of cold air around in NA, there should be plenty to follow going forward!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Ok, at what point will this begin to show up in the global models? Tomorrow, next week? I'm just curious at to the thoughts of the knowledgeable folks in here. Thanks.

Depends on location. Areas west of the MS, particular Great Plains, Great Basin, Rockies, and Pacific Northwest looks to be in a good seat via -PNA. Might be some quick warm ups ahead of digging systems. Areas East of the MS or close by likely has seen the peak of their winter back in January with the +PNA.

Thanks. I am right ON the Mississippi. (It's a half block down the street). Do you think the globals will start reflecting a less zonal flow? I guess I'm asking at what time in the coming days will be start to see a change in the operational runs reflecting the results of the MJO moving towards Phase 8?

[Portastorm]

Ntxw talked about this yesterday. Disturbances coming out of the southwest are frequently not modeled well.

[Cerlin]

Take this with a pellet of graupel, but it doesn’t look like the precip on the radar is losing any steam as it travels NE...could it maintain its structure and impact DFW eventually? Or is it very likely it’ll fade away before it reaches here.

[wxman57]

Well it's sunny in DFW, so I assume, as usual, it's nothing for us, unless of course it's 36 degrees and then we get our "just a cold rain". BRING ON SUMMER! I'm ready for it to be 100 already. Hopefully the heat comes early, comes often, and lasts til November.

You could always move to Phoenix. Take wxman57 with you.

Best chance of any precip in the D-FW area will be this evening as moisture increases. Too dang cold in Phoenix. I'm thinking Tahiti...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Well it's sunny in DFW, so I assume, as usual, it's nothing for us, unless of course it's 36 degrees and then we get our "just a cold rain". BRING ON SUMMER! I'm ready for it to be 100 already. Hopefully the heat comes early, comes often, and lasts til November.

Screw that with a 1000 knives of fury.

[Texas Snow]

Well it's sunny in DFW, so I assume, as usual, it's nothing for us, unless of course it's 36 degrees and then we get our "just a cold rain". BRING ON SUMMER! I'm ready for it to be 100 already. Hopefully the heat comes early, comes often, and lasts til November.

You could always move to Phoenix. Take wxman57 with you.

Best chance of any precip in the D-FW area will be this evening as moisture increases. Too dang cold in Phoenix. I'm thinking Tahiti...

Is that based off forecast soundings or actual ballon data? Just curious as the models already proved to be moisture lacking further south.

[Cerlin]

The models seem to not have a good grasp on the mid level precipitation which could mean that it has a greater chance to unleash on DFW later today but also could result in the precipitation letting out quicker. Gonna be a lot of developments until then so it’s just playing the waiting game now.

[Ntxw]

Ok, at what point will this begin to show up in the global models? Tomorrow, next week? I'm just curious at to the thoughts of the knowledgeable folks in here. Thanks.

Depends on location. Areas west of the MS, particular Great Plains, Great Basin, Rockies, and Pacific Northwest looks to be in a good seat via -PNA. Might be some quick warm ups ahead of digging systems. Areas East of the MS or close by likely has seen the peak of their winter back in January with the +PNA.

Thanks. I am right ON the Mississippi. (It's a half block down the street). Do you think the globals will start reflecting a less zonal flow? I guess I'm asking at what time in the coming days will be start to see a change in the operational runs reflecting the results of the MJO moving towards Phase 8?

The flow isn't really zonal. It's an amplified Pacific Pattern just not one that favors the Eastern Part of the US.

[Ntxw]

The models seem to not have a good grasp on the mid level precipitation which could mean that it has a greater chance to unleash on DFW later today but also could result in the precipitation letting out quicker. Gonna be a lot of developments until then so it’s just playing the waiting game now.

Mid-level moisture, as labeled, is associated with the Eastern Pacific aka subtropical jet. Often poorly modeled and poorly sampled. There is a great void of measurements in this region (we see an extension of this blind spot right through NW Mexico) as it is extremely vast, not a popular shipping lane or flight path.

[wxman57]

You could always move to Phoenix. Take wxman57 with you.

Best chance of any precip in the D-FW area will be this evening as moisture increases. Too dang cold in Phoenix. I'm thinking Tahiti...

Is that based off forecast soundings or actual ballon data? Just curious as the models already proved to be moisture lacking further south.

Current Fort Worth sounding is very dry aloft except for a thin band of mid-level moisture. This is close to the HRRR current sounding. RAOB sites don't make forecast soundings, so any sounding for 6Z tonight must be from a model. It does look like there will be an increase in moisture across the DFW area this evening.

[orangeblood]

And winter is not done by any stretch....models are going towards a strong Phase 8 by later next week and with a lot of cold air around in NA, there should be plenty to follow going forward!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Ok, at what point will this begin to show up in the global models? Tomorrow, next week? I'm just curious at to the thoughts of the knowledgeable folks in here. Thanks.

Depends on location. Areas west of the MS, particular Great Plains, Great Basin, Rockies, and Pacific Northwest looks to be in a good seat via -PNA. Might be some quick warm ups ahead of digging systems. Areas East of the MS or close by likely has seen the peak of their winter back in January with the +PNA.

Not sure about that....Phase 8-1-2 during an El Nino is pretty overwhelming that the southern US, particularly the southeast has below normal temps and above normal precip. Ton of High Pressure in Canada with the southern stream active, that should push the southeast ridge out