Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

The models today for some parts of the state is not as warm for Christmas Eve/Christmas Day as a shortwave trough comes through. Might be some rain for a few, still above normal but not as warm as they were showing.

[Brent]

The models today for some parts of the state is not as warm for Christmas Eve/Christmas Day as a shortwave trough comes through. Might be some rain for a few, still above normal but not as warm as they were showing.

Yeah I'm still waiting for the 70s and 80 I heard about here



I know we have a long way to go on this pattern clearly and I won't accept another winter where it barely snows but considering some of the talk a couple weeks ago

[Ntxw]

Cpv17 I hope so, because the last thing we need is another month of anomlous warmth ( technically the first half of december was near average) and a canadian warming would definitely be the worst case for that

I've never read anything about "Canadian strat warming" = warmth? Ridge and warmth in the stratosphere is a form of disrupting the polar vortex, not sure how that translates to Canada warming in the troposphere? Perhaps someone with better insight can provide some literature. My basic understanding is warmth and expansion of the stratosphere leads to shrinking and cooling of the troposphere since they have adverse effects on one another?

[txtwister78]

Cpv17 I hope so, because the last thing we need is another month of anomlous warmth ( technically the first half of december was near average) and a canadian warming would definitely be the worst case for that

Doesn't mean we can't have some cold periods mixed in there, it just means you're probably not going to see prolonged periods of brutal cold, but then again you obviously don't need that for snow/winter weather (even across the south). I still think 2nd week of January is going to be the time to watch for us across the southern plains. Euro weeklies/GEFS extended still look promising to me.

As much as this "warming in Canada" topic seems to be dominating the "winter is over" discussion, there's still more at play in terms of how all this pans out 20-25 days out via the PV and how that evolves with time. I actually see the chances for severe weather as an early signal of a potential pattern change going into January and so let's see how it plays out.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw Judah Cohen is great in that department, if you have twitter or X , he a great person to look up on their, has his own free blogs he posts every week and has done an incredible amount of research on the PV, Canadian Warmings/ SSWE’s, he actually predicts what the PV will do, very great dude with good resources to back up his posts

[txtwister78]

Ntxw Judah Cohen is great in that department, if you have twitter or X , he a great person to look up on their, has his own free blogs he posts every week and has done an incredible amount of research on the PV, Canadian Warmings/ SSWE’s, he actually predicts what the PV will do, very great dude with good resources to back up his posts

I actually just looked him up and it's a bit puzzling because on one hand the tweet that appears to be making the rounds within the X weather community talks about the Canadian warming as a hinderance to winter weather/cold making a return but then in his blog and within the discussion thread he acknowledges that a stretching of the PV can still deliver cold into the US? Isn't that what some of the long-range models are indicating?

So, is winter over then? Answer...No. Lol

[Ntxw]

Ntxw Judah Cohen is great in that department, if you have twitter or X , he a great person to look up on their, has his own free blogs he posts every week and has done an incredible amount of research on the PV, Canadian Warmings/ SSWE’s, he actually predicts what the PV will do, very great dude with good resources to back up his posts

I actually just looked him up and it's a bit puzzling because on one hand the tweet that appears to be making the rounds within the X weather community talks about the Canadian warming as a hinderance to winter weather but then in his blog and within the discussion thread he acknowledges that a stretching of the PV can still deliver cold into the US?

So, is winter over then? Answer...No. Lol

I've been confused over his stuff before as well. Definitely way smarter than I am, but sometimes not consistent. From all the papers and notes I've read, from him included, any disruption in the stratosphere (warming) leads to a weakened PV and by default a more wavey troposphere.

[Stratton23]

I guess i didnt see his current blog and just the post about the Canadian Warming, hes still a very good resource for PV information though, personally i dont think january is going to be warm at all, MJO is making good progress toward phase 7, WPO starts to head toward neutral, fhe other telconnections arent perfect yet, but they definitely are going in the right direction, their just seems to be a dramatic swing from oh its gonna be a cold january, to nope its gonna be warm and sucky, on X, hard to find a reliable met who flipping so often lol

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Ntxw Judah Cohen is great in that department, if you have twitter or X , he a great person to look up on their, has his own free blogs he posts every week and has done an incredible amount of research on the PV, Canadian Warmings/ SSWE’s, he actually predicts what the PV will do, very great dude with good resources to back up his posts

I actually just looked him up and it's a bit puzzling because on one hand the tweet that appears to be making the rounds within the X weather community talks about the Canadian warming as a hinderance to winter weather but then in his blog and within the discussion thread he acknowledges that a stretching of the PV can still deliver cold into the US?

So, is winter over then? Answer...No. Lol

I've been confused over his stuff before as well. Definitely way smarter than I am, but sometimes not consistent. From all the papers and notes I've read, from him included, any disruption in the stratosphere (warming) leads to a weakened PV and by default a more wavey troposphere.

There is a guy on Twitter who posted Kyle Macrichie map for the mjo moving forward. Not sure if anyone ever heard of him. I believe he is from around Maryland

[Ntxw]

Ntxw Judah Cohen is great in that department, if you have twitter or X , he a great person to look up on their, has his own free blogs he posts every week and has done an incredible amount of research on the PV, Canadian Warmings/ SSWE’s, he actually predicts what the PV will do, very great dude with good resources to back up his posts

I actually just looked him up and it's a bit puzzling because on one hand the tweet that appears to be making the rounds within the X weather community talks about the Canadian warming as a hinderance to winter weather/cold making a return but then in his blog and within the discussion thread he acknowledges that a stretching of the PV can still deliver cold into the US? Isn't that what some of the long-range models are indicating?

So, is winter over then? Answer...No. Lol

Looking at the GFS/GEFS the strat PV is relatively strong, so cold is largely going to build and stay above the arctic circle for a little bit more time. These minor warming events up there isn't a huge factor yet, long way out there's more substantial from the Asian sector, then we would like to see another wave event over on the Atlantic/Scandinavian side to really pinch off the PV. That likely won't be until the 2nd week of Jan or later.

Other factors such as a more favorable MJO and Pacific adjustments that gives the changes.

[Stratton23]

I think the first week or two of january will be cold, but i think that cold will largely be driven more by the MJO/ telconnections compared to the stratospheric PV, now of course if you want the really cold stuff, that PV has to weaken and get disrupted or at least stretched, but i think we can still get cold air to build up in canada and get dislodged just based off certain teleconnections and any alaskan blocking/ -NAO combination like what ensembles show, we dont need the bitter stuff, but just enough cold air and a system to make things fun in january

[Cpv17]

Ntxw Judah Cohen is great in that department, if you have twitter or X , he a great person to look up on their, has his own free blogs he posts every week and has done an incredible amount of research on the PV, Canadian Warmings/ SSWE’s, he actually predicts what the PV will do, very great dude with good resources to back up his posts

I actually just looked him up and it's a bit puzzling because on one hand the tweet that appears to be making the rounds within the X weather community talks about the Canadian warming as a hinderance to winter weather but then in his blog and within the discussion thread he acknowledges that a stretching of the PV can still deliver cold into the US?

So, is winter over then? Answer...No. Lol

I've been confused over his stuff before as well. Definitely way smarter than I am, but sometimes not consistent. From all the papers and notes I've read, from him included, any disruption in the stratosphere (warming) leads to a weakened PV and by default a more wavey troposphere.

Glad I’m not the only one that’s been confused by him lol I’ll also add that most of those people on X are from the EC, so they’re going to usually be biased towards the east.

[richtrav]

Wow! That 00z GFS is likely showing the predominant pattern for january, its starting to setup just before new years eve, -EPO, -NAO, +TNH, -PNA with a trough hanging back west, i really do think thats going to be the setup for most of january

Got to love this thread.

One good post.

Then the one right after basically says the opposite, January will be a torch, too.

If that's the case, then we can do a winter cancel almost.

I used to mock climate change. But, I remember when I first married my wife there were snowstorms in KS and even here at my wife's family in Abilene in December. I haven't gone home to a good snow in many years, and there just hasn't been a storm on the drive in about a decade. I don't expect cold all the time, but 70-80 on Christmas is too much.

So have we looked at the other temps and Winters as far back as records go? I'm not questioning your theory or concern but I see posts like this all the time.

Also records go only so far back so we don't know what happened before.

I think the general consensus is that ice caps were as fsr south as the north part of the USA, at one point 20,000 years ago, and us humans did not melt them.

I'm not denying we can impact the earth, but I also wonder if each of our relative short existence and experiences sometimes make us think things are worse or better now then thing were back in the day.

The earth has been around a long time, and until the sun explodes or a giant meteor hits and blows it up, the earth will be around with or without us.

Yes, I remember the winter of 89 and now 2021, two extremes that stick in my head, but out of the days I've been alive since 1982 and have lived in Texas, Christmas and winter have not always delivered.

Plus it's all very relative if the airport gets snow and I don't, does that mean it snowed in Texas that day because records would show it did but my house didn't get any. And on the contrary if it snowed at my house but not at the airport does that mean it snowed that day? Records would say no.

https://www.iweathernet.com/dfw-weather ... since-1898

We do know a little bit about the winter climate from tree pollen data taken at certain sites. About 4-6000 years ago the average temperature in TX was probably around 1C warmer than present and Arctic outbreaks were less severe. This is backed up by the presence of red mangrove pollen showing up during that time in the Corpus area. Their presence has not been detected within the past 3500 or so years or more than ~ 6500 years ago so the Middle Holocene in TX was presumably milder than periods either before or after. Red mangroves are tropical and will not stand frost; a local population at the mouth of the Rio Grande had started after the Dec 1989 freeze and it was all but eliminated in ‘21, with just the largest tree only barely surviving, a shell of its former self. The traditional northern limit of red mangrove in Tamaulipas has roughly been at La Pesca, where they were nearly eliminated by the ‘89 freeze but re-established. Since ‘89 it has been migrating northwards on the Tamaulipan coast.

[HockeyTx82]

Got to love this thread.

One good post.

Then the one right after basically says the opposite, January will be a torch, too.

If that's the case, then we can do a winter cancel almost.

I used to mock climate change. But, I remember when I first married my wife there were snowstorms in KS and even here at my wife's family in Abilene in December. I haven't gone home to a good snow in many years, and there just hasn't been a storm on the drive in about a decade. I don't expect cold all the time, but 70-80 on Christmas is too much.

So have we looked at the other temps and Winters as far back as records go? I'm not questioning your theory or concern but I see posts like this all the time.

Also records go only so far back so we don't know what happened before.

I think the general consensus is that ice caps were as fsr south as the north part of the USA, at one point 20,000 years ago, and us humans did not melt them.

I'm not denying we can impact the earth, but I also wonder if each of our relative short existence and experiences sometimes make us think things are worse or better now then thing were back in the day.

The earth has been around a long time, and until the sun explodes or a giant meteor hits and blows it up, the earth will be around with or without us.

Yes, I remember the winter of 89 and now 2021, two extremes that stick in my head, but out of the days I've been alive since 1982 and have lived in Texas, Christmas and winter have not always delivered.

Plus it's all very relative if the airport gets snow and I don't, does that mean it snowed in Texas that day because records would show it did but my house didn't get any. And on the contrary if it snowed at my house but not at the airport does that mean it snowed that day? Records would say no.

https://www.iweathernet.com/dfw-weather ... since-1898

We do know a little bit about the winter climate from tree pollen data taken at certain sites. About 4-6000 years ago the average temperature in TX was probably around 1C warmer than present and Arctic outbreaks were less severe. This is backed up by the presence of red mangrove pollen showing up during that time in the Corpus area. Their presence has not been detected within the past 3500 or so years or more than ~ 6500 years ago so the Middle Holocene in TX was presumably milder than periods either before or after. Red mangroves are tropical and will not stand frost; a local population at the mouth of the Rio Grande had started after the Dec 1989 freeze and it was all but eliminated in ‘21, with just the largest tree only barely surviving, a shell of its former self. The traditional northern limit of red mangrove in Tamaulipas has roughly been at La Pesca, where they were nearly eliminated by the ‘89 freeze but re-established. Since ‘89 it has been migrating northwards on the Tamaulipan coast.

Interesting post. What source is that from?

And to my point, what warmed the earth then?

Also, is warmth all that bad? I mean dry and hot is bad, but a warm planet allows for food to grow and people to prosper. The mini ice age was harsh.

[gpsnowman]

Every winter I read some of Judah. Smart guy but seems to always predict some form of vortex split or stretch then quietly retract it if it's not on time. Don't know a hell of a lot about a PV but his outlooks at times are ambiguous and vague.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Whenever orangeblood shows up and starts posting is when things are looking better, but not until then.

[gpsnowman]

Adding to the vague part, what the hell is Canadian warming? Never heard that before. Is it a surface feature or a something to do with a SSW?

[Ntxw]

Adding to the vague part, what the hell is Canadian warming? Never heard that before. Is it a surface feature or a something to do with a SSW?

There's been some northeast Pacific wave activity (warming) in the stratosphere this month and it's shifting a tad further east into W-Canada due to the Aleutian low-GOA heat flux. Canada is about to experience a torch around Hudson Bay and somehow the two have been spread as if they are connected to one another, though I feel it is more of a coincidence rather than cause-effect. You've had cases where it's warming the same way yet brutal cold below.

Warming in Canada at the surface is due to the strong jet extension of the Pacific flooding the continent with mild air.

[Iceresistance]

Cpv17 I hope so, because the last thing we need is another month of anomlous warmth ( technically the first half of december was near average) and a canadian warming would definitely be the worst case for that

Last winter really sucked for that, over 80% of that winter was just one thing: Pacific Blowtorch

[Iceresistance]

Adding to the vague part, what the hell is Canadian warming? Never heard that before. Is it a surface feature or a something to do with a SSW?

There's been some northeast Pacific wave activity (warming) in the stratosphere this month and it's shifting a tad further east into W-Canada due to the Aleutian low-GOA heat flux. Canada is about to experience a torch around Hudson Bay and somehow the two have been spread as if they are connected to one another, though I feel it is more of a coincidence rather than cause-effect. You've had cases where it's warming the same way yet brutal cold below.

Warming in Canada at the surface is due to the strong jet extension of the Pacific flooding the continent with mild air.

I nickname this the "Pacific Blowtorch" for a reason.