Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Wntrwthrguy]

Obviously this is a long way away but what needs to happen, if anything can, for Austin to get snow out of this?

[Ntxw]

Obviously this is a long way away but what needs to happen, if anything can, for Austin to get snow out of this?

A further south track of the ULL (maybe coastal TX) and perhaps a strong HP to the north to push cold air south.

[Brent]

Weatherbug has a rain/snow mix and thunderstorms next Sunday Night just north of Dallas(including the suburbs in Collin County)... but not in Dallas itself.

With temperatures above freezing...

[Brent]

and the 0z GFS taketh away... snow confined to the Panhandle mostly. Low cuts north much further west and winds up in Kansas.

[TheProfessor]

and the 0z GFS taketh away... snow confined to the Panhandle mostly. Low cuts north much further west and winds up in Kansas.

It's my fault, I just found out a friend of mine likes weather and specifically snow and I told her there is a chance for snow next week. It never snows when I tell someone it might snow.

[Brent]

and the 0z GFS taketh away... snow confined to the Panhandle mostly. Low cuts north much further west and winds up in Kansas.

It's my fault, I just found out a friend of mine likes weather and specifically snow and I told her there is a chance for snow next week. It never snows when I tell someone it might snow.

Well stop that...

[TheProfessor]

and the 0z GFS taketh away... snow confined to the Panhandle mostly. Low cuts north much further west and winds up in Kansas.

It's my fault, I just found out a friend of mine likes weather and specifically snow and I told her there is a chance for snow next week. It never snows when I tell someone it might snow.

Well stop that...

Sorry, just had the rush to tell her after I found out she loved snow. I might need to take a trip to the panhandle next weekend, 0z GFS would be records for some of those places right?

[TarrantWx]

On a positive note, the GFS ensemble is showing ridging into Alaska and the Yukon towards the end of its run. I realize it's a long way out, but for an ensemble to show this at 372 hours there must be some pretty decent agreement.



The 12z ensembles showed the same thing even with the troughiness in the SW. Hopefully this pattern is in it's final throes.

[TarrantWx]

There is the potential for another overnight severe weather set-up Tuesday night into Wednesday morning along and east of the I-35 corridor. NAM is showing the potential for upwards of 2000 J/kg of CAPE coupled with 0-1km Helicity between 200-350, all while a negatively-tilted trough approaches with favorable upper-level divergence for synoptic-scale lift. The potential certainly exists for some overnight supercells across Eastern Texas Tuesday night. SPC highlighted the area in a Day 2 Slight risk.

[Brent]

The GFS went from mid 20s Sunday afternoon at DFW to mid 70s Sunday afternoon at DFW...



and yeah... TheProfessor, this run of the GFS has amounts near Amarillo over 2 feet.

Of course... last run, the amounts over a foot were east of Oklahoma City...

and to thicken the plot further... the 0z CMC confines the significant snowfall to New Mexico. Amarillo gets maybe an inch or two on the sharp cutoff(with nothing SE of Amarillo)

[starsfan65]

the 0z GFS is a fluke

[TarrantWx]

Through 168 hours King Euro is much further south and deeper with the upper low than GFS and Canadian. Looks fairly similar to the 12z run.

Edit: Here's what Euro is showing. Still some hope for us after all.

[JayDT]

Through 168 hours King Euro is much further south and deeper with the upper low than GFS and Canadian. Looks fairly similar to the 12z run.

Edit: Here's what Euro is showing. Still some hope for us after all.

Definitely rooting for King Euro!

[Brent]

Let's go King Euro.

Does anyone have a Euro snow map?

[TarrantWx]

Edit: Duplicate post

[TarrantWx]

Let's go King Euro.

Does anyone have a Euro snow map?

If you look at the 850mb temps valid at the same time as those 500mb heights and then interpolate a little (assuming the 850mb 0C line is the approximate rain/snow line) you can see that DFW metro should end up as snow as the system wraps colder air around itself. No clue on the actual amount of precipitation falling at the time. If anyone has access to more Euro data that could tell us that would be great.

[TheProfessor]

Most Euro Data is subscription, Wunderground has a thing with their Wundermap where it shows snow for what I think is the length between each step. It only goes out 180 hours but it only has snow for West Texas as of the 12z run.

[South Texas Storms]

No snow in DFW on the 0z Euro. The snow is confined to west Texas and the Panhandle.

[Brent]

No snow in DFW on the 0z Euro. The snow is confined to west Texas and the Panhandle.

That's disappointing... I would expect with that track some snow at least.

[TheProfessor]

No snow in DFW on the 0z Euro. The snow is confined to west Texas and the Panhandle.

That's disappointing... I would expect with that track some snow at least.

The Storm is still well at sea right? Models are going to continue to struggle with the true nature of the storm (whether it be a snow producer or flooding rain producer for us) itself until it reaches land. The pattern seems to be there on some of the runs though.