Texas Winter 2017-2018

[dhweather]

Won't happen, the cold dry air is coming in fast, and basically drying out the column. But the 18Z has us getting snow in 384 hours, so there's that.

Was just about to post that! LMAO ..... The typical GFS this winter, should change it to the BFS!

Actually GFS is the perfect name... Give Fake Snow

Generating Fictitious Snow

[Lagreeneyes03]

It is not falling apart.

It fell apart.

Evaporation at its finest. *poof* its gone.

Kind of like that Cat2 Hurricane in 2011 that dried up at the Texas coast....wonder if we'll have another 2011 hot summer...a girl a can only hope..........

[Cpv17]

The GFS keeps trending stronger and stronger with that hp coming out of Canada next week. Still sends most of the cold air east of us though. Parts of the Florida panhandle are 15 degrees colder than us here SETX. Cloud cover and hopefully precipitation is what’s causing that though.

[EnnisTx]

Won't happen, the cold dry air is coming in fast, and basically drying out the column. But the 18Z has us getting snow in 384 hours, so there's that.

Was just about to post that! LMAO ..... The typical GFS this winter, should change it to the BFS!

Actually GFS is the perfect name... Give Fake Snow

I think BFS would still be a better choice, even though it's probably inappropriate on this board!

[gpsnowman]

Another dud. And another dry front on Saturday. Next Monday/Tuesday is the next project. After that, who knows? Nothing in the great cold pattern the last three weeks. I do believe later in winter we will have our chance for some snow. A late bloomer. The below normal temps are great, a deep moisture laden system will bring us surprises in late Jan or early Feb. Not an official outlook, only wishing at this point.

[Ralph's Weather]

If the precip regens east of Dallas then we will have an epic coup by the Tech model. Lets see, the HRRR shows regen also but as sleet.

Not happening.

Models disagree on that so I'll keep an eye out. Temps will be colder here at the surface too so may eek out a bit of accumulations if it does.

[EnnisTx]

If the precip regens east of Dallas then we will have an epic coup by the Tech model. Lets see, the HRRR shows regen also but as sleet.

Not happening.

Give it an hour!

[Ralph's Weather]

:lol:

If the precip regens east of Dallas then we will have an epic coup by the Tech model. Lets see, the HRRR shows regen also but as sleet.

Not happening.

Give it an hour!

The WRF-ARW2 has not failed yet today so I'll stick with it and hold out hope.

[EnnisTx]

:lol:

Not happening.

Give it an hour!

The WRF-ARW2 has not failed yet today so I'll stick with it and hold out hope.

Is it just me or does it look like it's starting to regenerate.....

[Ntxw]

The criticism of guidance support for the WWA was warranted today, and was likely not a good call by the FW NWS.

I do applaud them for using conventional wisdom and forecasting methods rather than just modelology however. Its tough to beat them models as time goes forward especially within 24-36 hours even compared to 10 years ago as they have greatly improved in the near term. It's the 5+ days that have problems. Shows that while we trash them (models) when they don't show us what we want, they are improving in short range forecasts.

[Ralph's Weather]

Temp in the mid 30s with precip developing to my west. I like what I see.

[bubba hotep]

The criticism of guidance support for the WWA was warranted today, and was likely not a good call by the FW NWS.

I do applaud them for using conventional wisdom and forecasting methods rather than just modelology however. Its tough to beat them models as time goes forward especially within 24-36 hours even compared to 10 years ago as they have greatly improved in the near term. It's the 5+ days that have problems. Shows that while we trash them (models) when they don't show us what we want, they are improving in short range forecasts.

I think maybe it was 3 years ago, but FWD went through a bad streak that winter. There was an event, they may have even issued a winter storm watch, that busted. Then later that same week we got unexpected snow during morning rush hour and FWD didn't issue anything even though the news was just wall-to-wall gridlock across the metroplex. Winter weather is tricky and I don't envy the forecasters that have to make these tough calls, esp. given the societal impacts they can have (school closings, canceled events, etc).

[bubba hotep]

Newest Euro Weeklies are out and they look cold. The 46 day mean has basically the entire country below normal with the biggest anomalies across the northern plains bleeding down the Front Range into Texas.

[JDawg512]

It fell apart.

Evaporation at its finest. *poof* its gone.

Kind of like that Cat2 Hurricane in 2011 that dried up at the Texas coast....wonder if we'll have another 2011 hot summer...a girl a can only hope..........

Lets hope not. 2011 was a devastating wildfire year. Do not want to see a repeat.

One thing that is lining up with 2011 is the hard long freeze which has killed back a ton of vegitation. All that dried dead vegitation will only exacerbate the possibility of wildfires later in the year if we don't have a wet spring.

The 2011 freeze was one of the factors in how severe the fires got, along with the extreme dry conditions.

[Ntxw]

Newest Euro Weeklies are out and they look cold. The 46 day mean has basically the entire country below normal with the biggest anomalies across the northern plains bleeding down the Front Range into Texas.

We know it will be cold, we've seen it first hand. Heck its cold now in a supposed thaw! We really need a good snowstorm to come with it

[Ralph's Weather]

Now waiting to hear if that band east of Dallas is reaching the ground yet. It sure is developing nicely on radar.

[EnnisTx]

Now waiting to hear if that band east of Dallas is reaching the ground yet. It sure is developing nicely on radar.

I knew it would............

[bubba hotep]

Now waiting to hear if that band east of Dallas is reaching the ground yet. It sure is developing nicely on radar.

It is come back pretty nicely, hope y'all can score out there!

[South Texas Storms]

Newest Euro Weeklies are out and they look cold. The 46 day mean has basically the entire country below normal with the biggest anomalies across the northern plains bleeding down the Front Range into Texas.

We know it will be cold, we've seen it first hand. Heck its cold now in a supposed thaw! We really need a good snowstorm to come with it

More importantly, the latest Euro Weeklies show slightly above normal precip over the next month. It's been a dry start to the year across TX (except Houston and points east). We need to get our soil moisture back up before spring.

[orangeblood]

The criticism of guidance support for the WWA was warranted today, and was likely not a good call by the FW NWS.

I do applaud them for using conventional wisdom and forecasting methods rather than just modelology however. Its tough to beat them models as time goes forward especially within 24-36 hours even compared to 10 years ago as they have greatly improved in the near term. It's the 5+ days that have problems. Shows that while we trash them (models) when they don't show us what we want, they are improving in short range forecasts.

I think maybe it was 3 years ago, but FWD went through a bad streak that winter. There was an event, they may have even issued a winter storm watch, that busted. Then later that same week we got unexpected snow during morning rush hour and FWD didn't issue anything even though the news was just wall-to-wall gridlock across the metroplex. Winter weather is tricky and I don't envy the forecasters that have to make these tough calls, esp. given the societal impacts they can have (school closings, canceled events, etc).

The most puzzling part about this event, or non-event I should say, was that it wasn't all that difficult....moisture was clearing lacking yet, for some odd reason, they miraculously assumed this system would find it. Typically, the difficult forecast they deal with are the ones where qpf amounts are borderline between advisory or warning criteria and/or one model is completely disaligned with the other. In this instance, all models were aligned - moisture was lacking, temps were marginal and a dry layer of 3000 plus feet had to be overcome. Just very strange but I hope that's not the only test they have this winter..hopefully, they can redeem themselves by nailing a winter storm warning from 2-3 days out starting next week