Texas Winter 2018-2019

[missygirl810]

Yeah but majority of those members don't show anything at all....this is a pretty intriguing event though with mean SREF temps around 34-35 Friday morning, much colder than the globals

Some Euro members have 6+" spots though many are just light. Some keep this further south and temps vary. Very interesting set up that will surely distract me from my work today.

Yep, it is very puzzling to say the least...It's been a long time since I've seen the ENS members this aggressive and we're not talking 10 days out either, it's less than 48 hrs. FW NWS better be on their A game or this could catch a lot of people off guard with their forecast!!

http://i65.tinypic.com/2drcih1.jpg

Ok, I don't understand that graphic at all lol.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow:

What an intriguing set up not only for you Metroplexers but for us here in the Austin area. Seems like it could be one of those events which overachieves OR one that never materializes!

If Bastardi is right, we're going to get slammed with sleet tomorrow. The Euro has consistently shown at least *some* sleet. Sounds like the models all underestimated the cold air to our north. This should be interesting to watch unfold.

Yep, cold source region plus -EPO/-PNA equals overperforming cold in the Southern Plains. Models see the zonal flow aloft and always err warm. Next week looks like more of the same.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front will cross the region today ending the record warmth.

A high temperature record of 82 was set yesterday at BUSH IAH, and temperatures will be a solid 30-40 degrees colder by Friday morning. Cold front currently extends from about Crockett to just north of Brenham and will move off the coast by late afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed along this boundary and will spread across much of the area through the day. Air mass is unstable aloft and a few of the storms could be strong with small hail and gusty winds. High temperatures will be prior to the front in the mid to even upper 70’s followed by a rapid fall into the 50’s under cold air advection this afternoon. Cold air will continue to flow into the region tonight with temperatures falling into the upper 30’s and low 40’s.

A disturbance will move across the area on Friday and Friday night within the cold air mass. Recent forecast soundings show a deep layer a dry air near the surface up to about 15,000 to 20,000 ft which should result in much of the cloud based precipitation evaporating after leaving the cloud base. This large layer of dry air will try to saturate from top down toward the surface during the day Friday and into Friday evening and this may succeed in a few isolated locations allowing a mixture of rain/sleet/snow to reach the surface. Suspect anything would be extremely light and given the fact that surface temperatures will be in the mid 30’s not expecting any issues. Most likely locations for seeing any mixed precipitation Friday evening would be north of a line from Brenham to Huntsville….again think these chances for very small.

Coastal trough begins to form on Saturday and strong warm advection begins in the 925-800mb level. Expect to see little temperature movement on Saturday as clouds and NE winds keep the surface cold dome locked in place. A warm front will begin to approach the coast early Sunday and the air mass will undergo top down warming and gradual moistening. Expect to see scattered showers develop especially west of I-45 on Sunday and this wet pattern will last into Monday and Tuesday ahead of our next front. Temperatures will be up and down with both cold and warm frontal passages over the next several days. Cold Friday and Saturday and then warm again Sunday-Monday.

Active pattern looks to remain in place with a continued wettish looking period next week and even the following week with no significant cold air intrusions showing up in the extended models that would be out of the ordinary for February. Cold air will be lurking in the northern plains and northern Rockies, but currently not seeing a great pattern to deliver a big chunk of this toward TX.

[bubba hotep]

Yeah but majority of those members don't show anything at all....this is a pretty intriguing event though with mean SREF temps around 34-35 Friday morning, much colder than the globals

Some Euro members have 6+" spots though many are just light. Some keep this further south and temps vary. Very interesting set up that will surely distract me from my work today.

Yep, it is very puzzling to say the least...It's been a long time since I've seen the ENS members this aggressive and we're not talking 10 days out either, it's less than 48 hrs. FW NWS better be on their A game or this could catch a lot of people off guard with their forecast!!

http://i65.tinypic.com/2drcih1.jpg

I've been keeping an eye on this for a while but have been too defeated by this winter to put any effort into analyzing it lol

It's been highlighted in the Euro ensembles for about a week now but surface temps have just looked too warm. It isn't surprising that surface temps are trending colder or that models are struggling with perception placement and amount. There appears to be a very subtle s/w embedded in the flow and a prominent jet streak. It looks like the Euro is developing precipitation associated with the right entrance region of the jet streak. Kind of a complex setup with no big key to focus on. Models will be playing catch up since that jet streak is just now coming out of Mexico. Could be a nice surprise or more of the same.

[Ralph's Weather]

Some Euro members have 6+" spots though many are just light. Some keep this further south and temps vary. Very interesting set up that will surely distract me from my work today.

Yep, it is very puzzling to say the least...It's been a long time since I've seen the ENS members this aggressive and we're not talking 10 days out either, it's less than 48 hrs. FW NWS better be on their A game or this could catch a lot of people off guard with their forecast!!

http://i65.tinypic.com/2drcih1.jpg

Ok, I don't understand that graphic at all lol.

It shows the Euro ensemble members snow forecast for DFW. The top graph has each of the 50 members on the y axis and time is the X axis. The colors correspond to the amount of snow predicted by that member through the given time. The bottom graph shows the ensemble mean. Y axis is snow amount and x axis is time in hours from the initial time the model was ran (last night).

[dhweather]

Hey, its only 42 hours out!




But the sounding laughs out loud.

[Ralph's Weather]

Hey, its only 42 hours out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_7.png


But the sounding laughs out loud.

http://i68.tinypic.com/9uxgkx.png

That's actually not too bad of a sounding temps wise for snow. Just a question of how much moisture can the wave out of Mexico wring out. Euro shows more moisture thus more precip. Best chance for snow is tomorrow afternoon it appears when temps at 850 are colder than the midnight sounding you have.

[Cerlin]

Hey, its only 42 hours out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_7.png


But the sounding laughs out loud.

http://i68.tinypic.com/9uxgkx.png

I don’t know about the sounding’s legitimacy, especially with how bad temps busted for this morning. I doubt it’ll be that warm at the surface.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

What an intriguing set up not only for you Metroplexers but for us here in the Austin area. Seems like it could be one of those events which overachieves OR one that never materializes!

If Bastardi is right, we're going to get slammed with sleet tomorrow. The Euro has consistently shown at least *some* sleet. Sounds like the models all underestimated the cold air to our north. This should be interesting to watch unfold.

For the Austin area, the projected sounding for 12z (6am) Friday indicates that the entire precip column will be in above-freezing air, but there may be a shallow layer of barely below freezing air at 950mb (maybe 1500 ft up). Surface temp near 40. That would mean a chance of a few sleet pellets. The temperate at 950mb is predicted to increase slightly during the day on Friday, meaning the sleet would end but rain would continue.

The high resolution model (HRRR) is colder at the surface and aloft but A LOT drier. It indicates only a mid-level cloud deck across Austin tomorrow.

6Z GFS:


HRRR:

[wxman57]

Hey, its only 42 hours out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_7.png


But the sounding laughs out loud.

http://i68.tinypic.com/9uxgkx.png

I don’t know about the sounding’s legitimacy, especially with how bad temps busted for this morning. I doubt it’ll be that warm at the surface.

As I mentioned above, I don't think that the air is colder than was predicted, it's just arriving earlier. Temps are colder NOW than predicted (earlier front) but that doesn't necessarily translate into colder tomorrow than predicted.

[Portastorm]

Key word here being "projected."

We shall see. I still remain skeptical of seeing much wintry action here in Austin tomorrow but I also say this setup has potential for surprises.

[wxman57]

Hey, its only 42 hours out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_7.png

But the sounding laughs out loud.

http://i68.tinypic.com/9uxgkx.png

That is actually a snow sounding for DFW. HRRR only goes out to 21Z tomorrow (3pm), but it is MUCH drier over the D-FW area than the GFS. It does appear that any snow or sleet that falls will reach above-freezing air at the surface and quickly melt.

[Ntxw]

About a week ago a lot of the models were projecting 1030s/1040s HP. We will likely verify with about 1048-1050HP in the northern midwest. 1055s+ showing up in WCanada next week.

Models continue to try and cut them down with zonal flow, however it may be wrong.

[Cerlin]

Hey, its only 42 hours out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_7.png


But the sounding laughs out loud.

http://i68.tinypic.com/9uxgkx.png

I don’t know about the sounding’s legitimacy, especially with how bad temps busted for this morning. I doubt it’ll be that warm at the surface.

As I mentioned above, I don't think that the air is colder than was predicted, it's just arriving earlier. Temps are colder NOW than predicted (earlier front) but that doesn't necessarily translate into colder tomorrow than predicted.

Yeah I’m more saying that I doubt a warmup will happen as quickly not necessarily that the air itself is colder, but that’s extremely true—it’ll be a lot of nowcasting.

[harp]

About a week ago a lot of the models were projecting 1030s/1040s HP. We will likely verify with about 1048-1050HP in the northern midwest. 1055s+ showing up in WCanada next week.

Models continue to try and cut them down with zonal flow, however it may be wrong.

The zonal flow is killing us.

[Ntxw]

I don’t know about the sounding’s legitimacy, especially with how bad temps busted for this morning. I doubt it’ll be that warm at the surface.

As I mentioned above, I don't think that the air is colder than was predicted, it's just arriving earlier. Temps are colder NOW than predicted (earlier front) but that doesn't necessarily translate into colder tomorrow than predicted.

Yeah I’m more saying that I doubt a warmup will happen as quickly not necessarily that the air itself is colder, but that’s extremely true—it’ll be a lot of nowcasting.

GFS says DFW is around 40. It is about 5 degrees colder. That's what the NWS was sticking with by 1pm along with it prior. But that is the GFS and we have documented well the past two years with its warm bias during cold snaps.

[Lagreeneyes03]

38F at DFW and not likely warming up much today. Faux spring the past few days is over.

Originally, the cold wasn't forecast to come in til around 3pm, front was WAY fast! I almost dressed for 65 degree weather in the AM, then I opened the door to let the dog out. Wow.

[HockeyTx82]

Well, well, well......

Check out the FWD homepage graphics

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/

[cheezyWXguy]

It is worth noting that the 12z NAM 3k is showing snow showers over DFW as well, and the sounding looks a bit more favorable to me, with the entire column below freezing, a saturated column up to about 600mb, and a surface temp of 34.

[Cerlin]

Most of the op shorter range models (WRF, RGEM, NAM) are showing some kind of wintry precipitation across CTX or NTX. Surface temps are widely variable and so is the placement and timing of the precipitation, but the trends are promising.