Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

Some extremely aggressive Euro ENS members for a potential winter storm next Thursday/Friday...they drop this shortwave deep into Texas underneath the upper level ridge sitting over Central Canada. Although rare, interesting analogs show up with that particular setup. Something to begin monitoring!! Also, a decent number of them show an freezing rain/overrunning event for central/south Texas Tuesday/Wednesday

[gpsnowman]

Alright, just saw the snow on the radar, here it comes!

Now we dont have to here the Ntx crew cry anymore!!!! Hahaha, enjoy it fellas!

Haha. We still will until we get a big one. 3+inches.

[Theepicman116]

On the radar it looks like the snow band is expanding out.

[Gigem12]

First school closure...

All Saints Episcopal cancelling all after school activities.

Hoping I get a late (10AM) start tomorrow at Garland HS!

[Ralph's Weather]

Some extremely aggressive Euro ENS members for a potential winter storm next Thursday/Friday...they drop this shortwave deep into Texas underneath the upper level ridge sitting over Central Canada. Although rare, interesting analogs show up with that particular setup. Something to begin monitoring!! Also, a decent number of them snow and freezing rain/overrunning event for central/south Texas Tuesday/Wednesday

The ensembles sure do look interesting for next week though any particular solution is tricky at best to nail down. Suffice to say it will be cold and unsettled. The late week time frame looks like the best bet based on what I have seen.

[DFWLady]

Alright, just saw the snow on the radar, here it comes!

Now we dont have to here the Ntx crew cry anymore!!!! Hahaha, enjoy it fellas!

Haha. We still will until we get a big one. 3+inches.

Lol nope we won't stop crying until we have enough snow on the ground to atleast see it! I'm sitting in my office in Dallas just waiting! Come on snow!!!!

[DFWLady]

First school closure...

All Saints Episcopal cancelling all after school activities.

Hoping I get a late (10AM) start tomorrow at Garland HS!

My kiddos go to Garland schools! We are hoping for a late start to! Then I get to come into work late and it will be an AMAZING end of the week lol!

[bubba hotep]

HRRR is still missing the returns out west of DFW. My guess is that FWD is seeing something in the models that would indicate QPF even though the models aren't outputting any QPF. Maybe saturation in the column combined with CSI indicating that slantwise convection would be possible to produce snow bands or some other short lived mesoscale features that the models might not be grasping.

Enough to warrant a WWA ? IMO, this is a situation where you wait until real observations are made and then issue advisories accordingly...way too premature when you have ZERO support from your forecast tools

I think they would argue that there was support from the forecast tools. Modeled QPF isn't always a great indicator of what will happen. I can think of 3 or 4 snow events in DFW over the last 6 or 7 years that basically had no model support (that number expands if you include thunderstorms during the rest of the year). Then on the flip side are the events in the other direction that had model support and then busted.

[orangeblood]

First school closure...

All Saints Episcopal cancelling all after school activities.

Hoping I get a late (10AM) start tomorrow at Garland HS!

In the voice of Michael Irvin..."Clossseeddd??? What in the heck for ?"

[orangeblood]

HRRR is still missing the returns out west of DFW. My guess is that FWD is seeing something in the models that would indicate QPF even though the models aren't outputting any QPF. Maybe saturation in the column combined with CSI indicating that slantwise convection would be possible to produce snow bands or some other short lived mesoscale features that the models might not be grasping.

Enough to warrant a WWA ? IMO, this is a situation where you wait until real observations are made and then issue advisories accordingly...way too premature when you have ZERO support from your forecast tools

I think they would argue that there was support from the forecast tools. Modeled QPF isn't always a great indicator of what will happen. I can think of 3 or 4 snow events in DFW over the last 6 or 7 years that basically had no model support (that number expands if you include thunderstorms during the rest of the year). Then on the flip side are the events in the other direction that had model support and then busted.

Those events at least had some qpf modeled...this event has zero qpf plus temps are extremely marginal and have been above freezing for several days. Just look at the current dew point/temp spread ahead of this line of precip, would take a lot to overcome the dry layer at the surface

[Ralph's Weather]

If the most aggressive Tech model (WRF-ARW2) which has done the best so far is to be believed ten SHV NWS may need to issue their own WWA. It shows the band getting stronger as it moves east of DFW and by then it will be dark with subfreezing surface temps. Over here sleet could mix in as there is a bit of a warm nose though it is minor.

[Ntxw]

Yeah I think closures are premature and not likely late openings. More novelty snow/sleet than anything perhaps a dusting to half inch for the lucky ones. Story is the seasonably cold temps the next 7+ days

[Ralph's Weather]

Enough to warrant a WWA ? IMO, this is a situation where you wait until real observations are made and then issue advisories accordingly...way too premature when you have ZERO support from your forecast tools

I think they would argue that there was support from the forecast tools. Modeled QPF isn't always a great indicator of what will happen. I can think of 3 or 4 snow events in DFW over the last 6 or 7 years that basically had no model support (that number expands if you include thunderstorms during the rest of the year). Then on the flip side are the events in the other direction that had model support and then busted.

Those events at least had some qpf modeled...this event has zero qpf plus temps are extremely marginal and have been above freezing for several days. Just look at the current dew point/temp spread ahead of this line of precip, would take a lot to overcome the dry layer at the surface

Think of this like a thunderstorm event. A dry bottom 1,000 feet is not going to prevent convective precip from reaching the ground and temps look to be 36 and below during the precip so heavy snow can easily overcome that.

[Ralph's Weather]

Yeah I think closures are premature and not likely late openings. More novelty snow/sleet than anything perhaps a dusting to half inch for the lucky ones. Story is the seasonably cold temps the next 7+ days

This event is going to likely cause poor road conditions while under the bands on all roads. On rural roads especially east of DFW where snow will fall after dark and with sub-freezing temps could stay icy into tomorrow morning where they get heavy enough precip to accumulate.

[Ralph's Weather]

Even the most aggressive model does not show precip being as widespread as is currently occuring.

[orangeblood]

I think they would argue that there was support from the forecast tools. Modeled QPF isn't always a great indicator of what will happen. I can think of 3 or 4 snow events in DFW over the last 6 or 7 years that basically had no model support (that number expands if you include thunderstorms during the rest of the year). Then on the flip side are the events in the other direction that had model support and then busted.

Those events at least had some qpf modeled...this event has zero qpf plus temps are extremely marginal and have been above freezing for several days. Just look at the current dew point/temp spread ahead of this line of precip, would take a lot to overcome the dry layer at the surface

Think of this like a thunderstorm event. A dry bottom 1,000 feet is not going to prevent convective precip from reaching the ground and temps look to be 36 and below during the precip so heavy snow can easily overcome that.

Soundings show this dry layer to be from the surface to around 2500-3000 ft up, that is a lot to overcome with convective precip looking extremely marginal. This is not a freeze on contact situation

[orangeblood]

Even the most aggressive model does not show precip being as widespread as is currently occuring.

Haven't heard many reports that that precip is even reaching the ground. Roads appear fine where the band has moved through already

[Theepicman116]

People in my English 4 class and now my stats class are saying we're going to have snow and sleet on Tuesday and Thursday. However looking at the models we don't have any snow. I don't have the guts to tell them that they might be wrong and we might not get snow and sleet on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday

[JayDT]

Its so weird seeing that the people at the NWS are more optimistic about this event than a lot of the people on here lol

[Lptx]

First time poster, long time lurker! Heavy snow falling for the past 10 minutes in Peaster, TX! Not sticking yet..