Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ralph's Weather]

Snow now near Abilene on radar and confirmed via mPING reports. I really like what I am seeing out to our west. Models as usual seem to be underestimating the lift as none show the extent of the W TX precip. I will lean on the Tech model as it seems to have some clue.

[Theepicman116]

After looking over this morning's model data, don't see how the FTW NWS can keep this WWA in place...seeing zero model/sounding support for precip across the Metroplex, maybe something reaching the ground in the far Northwest.

Puzzling to say the least!!!

I guess they see something we don’t. It could also be that they want to be better safe than sorry with this system.

[Yukon Cornelius]

After looking over this morning's model data, don't see how the FTW NWS can keep this WWA in place...seeing zero model/sounding support for precip across the Metroplex, maybe something reaching the ground in the far Northwest.

Puzzling to say the least!!!

Here, NW of the metroplex, the forecast has called for a 50% chance of snow with 1/2" to 1" accumulations. No winter watches or advisories. I just looked to see if it had been updated and they have since taken all of the snow out of the forecast with it gradually becoming mostly sunny.

[wxman57]

12z GFS and Canadian say no frozen precip across TX early next week, but it sure looks chilly...

It's a moisture issue. No return flow between fronts = very little moisture to work with.

[Ralph's Weather]

Front is through Dallas. Now time to start watching radar trends to see if the bands form near WF in a bit. It is nice to see snow in Abilene but that area of precip is not likely to affect N TX, still it is an indication of the lift out that way.

[Tammie]

NWS FW UPDATE 10:43
The only change to the precipitation forecast was to include a low
chance for showers in our southwestern counties this afternoon.
Regional radar shows some convective showers in the Big Country
moving southeast, and part of this precipitation may move into
our southwestern counties, but surface observations do not
indicate much precipitation is reaching the ground with dry air
rapidly invading behind the cold front. This area of returns is
occurring within the base of the upper level trough. Elsewhere, a
banded area of showers is developing across our southeastern
counties and will persist in this area through mid afternoon.

No changes were needed to the winter precipitation forecast or
Winter Weather Advisory. Weather model data continues to target
the area north to northwest of the DFW Metroplex as the most
likely to see snow and/or a convective snow band this afternoon.
Accumulations of up to an inch with a convective snow band still
look plausible as the strong winds will also be blowing the snow
around.

[Ralph's Weather]

NWS FW UPDATE 10:43
The only change to the precipitation forecast was to include a low
chance for showers in our southwestern counties this afternoon.
Regional radar shows some convective showers in the Big Country
moving southeast, and part of this precipitation may move into
our southwestern counties, but surface observations do not
indicate much precipitation is reaching the ground with dry air
rapidly invading behind the cold front. This area of returns is
occurring within the base of the upper level trough. Elsewhere, a
banded area of showers is developing across our southeastern
counties and will persist in this area through mid afternoon.

No changes were needed to the winter precipitation forecast or
Winter Weather Advisory. Weather model data continues to target
the area north to northwest of the DFW Metroplex as the most
likely to see snow and/or a convective snow band this afternoon.
Accumulations of up to an inch with a convective snow band still
look plausible as the strong winds will also be blowing the snow
around.

I agree with their forecast for today, though may see a few flakes out around Brownwood also.

[orangeblood]

After looking over this morning's model data, don't see how the FTW NWS can keep this WWA in place...seeing zero model/sounding support for precip across the Metroplex, maybe something reaching the ground in the far Northwest.

Puzzling to say the least!!!

I guess they see something we don’t. It could also be that they want to be better safe than sorry with this system.

My hunch is that they jumped at one model run of the NAM last night, 0Z...which is something we discuss religiously around here, one model run doesn't make a trend/run to run consistentcy is extremely important before sounding alarms

But then again, these advisories are issued by the pros (much better trained than us amateurs) so need to give some credence

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Some decent radar returns in W Texas. A lot of lift out there hoping that translates this afternoon

Always nice to see a trough overproducing out west. Also HRRR starting to pick up on the afternoon band.

All I can say is this...driving from my office from Richardson to Frisco this morning, the temp was 58, the ground was damp with dew, winds were strong from the south, and their was light fog and plenty of low-level clouds. If a front that strong is moving south, their is an imminent collision in the cards.

[dhweather]

Front is through Heath, temps dropped 8 degrees in 20 minutes, gusts to 35.

[Ralph's Weather]

Some decent radar returns in W Texas. A lot of lift out there hoping that translates this afternoon

Always nice to see a trough overproducing out west. Also HRRR starting to pick up on the afternoon band.

All I can say is this...driving from my office from Richardson to Frisco this morning, the temp was 58, the ground was damp with dew, winds were strong from the south, and their was light fog and plenty of low-level clouds. If a front that strong is moving south, their is an imminent collision in the cards.

It is dropping fast now.

[dhweather]

Well, its trying to develop just east of a line from Wichita Falls to Abilene.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like surface wind shift is nearing me in Tyler with its associated line of showers and maybe storms. Temp drop is delayed a bit behind the front.

HRRR showing very minor band and then a bit of backside snow in E TX. Tech models still showing the band of snow on their 12Z runs and extending snow into E TX tonight. Liking the trends I am seeing. The Tech models do seem to be handing things pretty well as you would expect from a model developed on the Southern Plains analyzing a Southern Plains shortwave. We have to remember to not fall in love with models especially when they do not match previous events with this set up.

[wxman22]

Even though the GFS and CMC are mostly dry, the 12z Euro is still showing a wintry mix for parts of Southeast Texas fwiw.

[orangeblood]

Looks like surface wind shift is nearing me in Tyler with its associated line of showers and maybe storms. Temp drop is delayed a bit behind the front.

HRRR showing very minor band and then a bit of backside snow in E TX. Tech models still showing the band of snow on their 12Z runs and extending snow into E TX tonight. Liking the trends I am seeing. The Tech models do seem to be handing things pretty well as you would expect from a model developed on the Southern Plains analyzing a Southern Plains shortwave. We have to remember to not fall in love with models especially when they do not match previous events with this set up.

Since not every event is the exact same as prior events, models are forecasters life-line...to ignore them is very questionable. Latest Tech Model Run shows precip dissipating as it moves east, very similar to what most other models have been showing. Even in precip falling to the west of Metroplex, temps well above freezing in the upper 30's. Still extremely puzzled at this NWS forecast

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah it's likely going to take a heavy burst of snow to see any accumulations in north TX. Current temps where the radar is showing some light snow and sleet is in the mid 30s. Don't think we will see more than a dusting across most of north TX.

[stormlover2013]

Even though the GFS and CMC are mostly dry, the 12z Euro is still showing a wintry mix for parts of Southeast Texas fwiw.

image?

[bubba hotep]

HRRR is still missing the returns out west of DFW. My guess is that FWD is seeing something in the models that would indicate QPF even though the models aren't outputting any QPF. Maybe saturation in the column combined with CSI indicating that slantwise convection would be possible to produce snow bands or some other short lived mesoscale features that the models might not be grasping.

[Captmorg70]

We’ll see how long lasting it is, but the radar has definitely started filling in out to the west. Definitely different than the models ATM

[Yukon Cornelius]

Its slowly starting to clear off from the WNW. Looks like the updated forecast was correct. With skies clearing, I bet we dip into the upper teens tonight.