Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

For next week, I really like the trends on both the Euro and GFS ENS...cold and active pattern setting up for next week, the potential is there for shallow Arctic air to hold on while one of these S/Ws dig through the southern plains. Euro members are very "wintry" next week

Do you think we can expect a westward shift with the models for next week? Getting sick and tired of everything passing east of us almost the entire winter. It has to change at some point doesn’t it?

Pattern is going western trough, eastern ridge after 15th. Million dollar question is can we keep the EPO. The year where it happened with warm MJO Phases 3/4/5 in Jan is 1978

Nice find...1978 seems to be an outlier during those phases but in order for it to happen we need the AO to tank as well....fortunately, the Ensembles are hinting at that possibility. I like our chances with a -PNA, -EPO, -AO





Similar look

[Yukon Cornelius]

Already in the upper 30s here with a windchill of 20.

[Ntxw]

Some decent radar returns in W Texas. A lot of lift out there hoping that translates this afternoon

[EnnisTx]

Days like today in NTX are when meteorologists prove their value. If you rely soley on model output for surface conditions today appears to be a non event. Though climo for this setup paints a different picture with past events having produced over 6 inches locally in similar setups.

Totally agree with you, I can't even remember how many times I've seen this and we got hammered with snow due to convective bands.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Light drizzle starting here.

[South Texas Storms]

Days like today in NTX are when meteorologists prove their value. If you rely soley on model output for surface conditions today appears to be a non event. Though climo for this setup paints a different picture with past events having produced over 6 inches locally in similar setups.

Possibly but I've rarely ever seen a WWA posted for something that has very minimal model support, if any. Very strange! It appears they went off one run of the NAM model, which was the 0Z run last night. Snow amounts on that run correlate almost exactly where the WWA is outlined

I am also surprised that they issued the WWA this morning. We'll see if it verifies this afternoon. I would've waited until after all of the 12z data came in before issuing an alert to see if there's any increase in the confidence.

[Ralph's Weather]

Some decent radar returns in W Texas. A lot of lift out there hoping that translates this afternoon

Always nice to see a trough overproducing out west. Also HRRR starting to pick up on the afternoon band.

[gpsnowman]

Some decent radar returns in W Texas. A lot of lift out there hoping that translates this afternoon

Always nice to see a trough overproducing out west. Also HRRR starting to pick up on the afternoon band.

Just hope it holds long enough southeast. It would be cool to have a 30 minute mini-blizzard with the strong winds today.

[bubba hotep]

Jan '78 was a weak Nino and it looks like 4/5 is rare in a Nina. However, the past data might be contaminated by the background state. I've never looked at the literature on that.

[Ntxw]

Do you think we can expect a westward shift with the models for next week? Getting sick and tired of everything passing east of us almost the entire winter. It has to change at some point doesn’t it?

Pattern is going western trough, eastern ridge after 15th. Million dollar question is can we keep the EPO. The year where it happened with warm MJO Phases 3/4/5 in Jan is 1978

http://i64.tinypic.com/1zl8w7p.gif

Jan '78 was a weak Nino and it looks like 4/5 is rare in a Nina. However, the past data might be contaminated by the background state. I've never looked at the literature on that.

It was a weak Nino. But I don't take that heavily into consideration for short time spans. The very -AO/NAO was likely a determinate factor and the MJO was moving with amplitude. I don't expect a repeat but silver lining that not all unfavorable mjo phase are unfavorable

[gpsnowman]

Bowie at 46
Weatherford 49
Irving 60
Coming soon.

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS and Canadian say no frozen precip across TX early next week, but it sure looks chilly...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Currently 35. Our forecast said it wasnt suppose to be 35 until around 5:00 to 6:00 PM.

[gpsnowman]

Massive wind shift just now in Irving. This sucker is moving quick!! Looks to be a couple hours ahead of schedule.

[Gigem12]

New to posting but have been lurking for a couple years.

Im a basketball coach in Garland and have to drive the bus to our games tonight. Any chance I will have issues with roadways or little chance of anything sticking?

[Ralph's Weather]

New to posting but have been lurking for a couple years.

Im a basketball coach in Garland and have to drive the bus to our games tonight. Any chance I will have issues with roadways or little chance of anything sticking?

Watch things, but I think you will be fine that far east.

[starsfan65]

New to posting but have been lurking for a couple years.

Im a basketball coach in Garland and have to drive the bus to our games tonight. Any chance I will have issues with roadways or little chance of anything sticking?

Watch things, but I think you will be fine that far east.

are you sure?

[Ralph's Weather]

New to posting but have been lurking for a couple years.

Im a basketball coach in Garland and have to drive the bus to our games tonight. Any chance I will have issues with roadways or little chance of anything sticking?

Watch things, but I think you will be fine that far east.

are you sure?

Never can be sure, so as I said watch things. Temps will be below freezing likely and if you find yourself under a heavy band then the roads esp bridges could get slick.

[CaptinCrunch]

Wind has shifted here in DT FTW, it's out of the NW and gusty.

[orangeblood]

After looking over this morning's model data, don't see how the FTW NWS can keep this WWA in place...seeing zero model/sounding support for precip across the Metroplex, maybe something reaching the ground in the far Northwest.

Puzzling to say the least!!!