Texas Winter 2017-2018

[EnnisTx]

NWS FW.

We still continue to closely monitor the potential for a quick
shot of some wintry precipitation as the center of the upper
trough passes through North Texas Thursday afternoon. Latest
guidance continues to indicate that a fairly intense band of
mid level ascent between 600-400mb will be present from central
Oklahoma southward into North Texas during the afternoon hours.
This band of lift develops across northwest Texas around midday
and spreads eastward with the center of the trough axis into the
evening hours. While upward vertical motions alone are not that
concerning, the fact that they will be occurring within an area
that becomes saturated with lapse rates > 8C/km becomes much more
interesting in that this scenario would support the development of
convective snow bands with the potential for some bursts of brief
heavy snow. The 6Z NAM continues to support this scenario and
forecast soundings from Bowie/Gainesville show a brief period
during the mid afternoon hours where near saturation occurs with a
profile below freezing. With the steep lapse rates and increasing
confidence that moisture will be available within an area of
strong ascent, we`ll raise PoPs to 20-40% in a narrow band from
the Metroplex northwestward and mention a snow/sleet mix. If any
convective bands can develop, there would certainly be the
potential for some minor light accumulations under any bursts of
snow. At this time, we don`t see the need for any winter weather
advisories, but this is certainly on the table for Thursday
afternoon. Any snow would be short lived as the upper trough will
move eastward quickly Thursday evening with temperatures falling
into the lower 30s by the evening hours. Strong north winds will
result in wind chills in the lower 20s.

[JayDT]

The Fort Worth NWS just posted another graphic on twitter a couple of mins ago & they have the snow/sleet mix further south & east into the metro area

[orangeblood]

Yikes!! 12Z Canadian just went towards the GFS and it's ensembles for next week...Euro run could be quite telling!

[MississippiWx]

Yikes!! 12Z Canadian just went towards the GFS and it's ensembles for next week...Euro run could be quite telling!

Yep. Cold and dry.

[Portastorm]

The GFS has consistently (the last 3 runs) gotten warmer and warmer for Texas early next week. If you want snow and ice, the trend is not your friend.

[opticsguy]

Great post wxman57! One of the problem areas is initialization. You often hear around here how the models handle the Pacific determines what happens. The Pacific Ocean is one of the poor observed regions of the globe. Due to its vast size and lack of human traffic in the vast open waters to retrieve data for model input. We are often blind until a system hits the US mainland. The deserts of NW Mexico is another blind spot. The Atlantic on the other hand is well observed and traveled by aircraft to collect such data thus you will not see the great shifts of forecasts for the NAO as you would the EPO

Some soundings in Northern Mexico would work wonders for our winter forecasting.

[gpsnowman]

Yikes!! 12Z Canadian just went towards the GFS and it's ensembles for next week...Euro run could be quite telling!

When is the Euro, 11 or noon?

[orangeblood]

Yikes!! 12Z Canadian just went towards the GFS and it's ensembles for next week...Euro run could be quite telling!

When is the Euro, 11 or noon?

Noon

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS totally abandons winter wx next week for N. Texas... That is a bit concerning. It will be very interesting to see what the Euro & EPS spit out today.

[orangeblood]

12z GEFS totally abandons winter wx next week for N. Texas... That is a bit concerning. It will be very interesting to see what the Euro & EPS spit out today.

Yeah, the one promising thing is the GEFS was extremely aggressive with frozen precip around New Years and we all know how that turned out

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has some light snow north of Abilene (west of the DFW area) during the day tomorrow. On my workstation, I see a little under an inch in the Wichita Falls area. It'll be another 15-20 minutes before it reaches next Tue/Wed.

Here's a screenshot from my workstation:

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro looks farther east with the Western US ridge through 120 hours. Think this run will show less wintry precip across TX next week.

[orangeblood]

12z Euro looks farther east with the Western US ridge through 120 hours. Think this run will show less wintry precip across TX next week.

Wow! For the 2nd time in a few weeks, the Euro gets punched in the mouth once again by the GFS...dry/northwest flow it is and continues the theme so far this winter! I think we need to reconsider the label of "King Euro" around here

bow down to the GFS

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro looks farther east with the Western US ridge through 120 hours. Think this run will show less wintry precip across TX next week.

Total reshuffle of the pattern across Canada towards the GFS. 00z was more of Omega block to cutoff ridge and 12z doesn't cutoff the ridge and plows a positive tilt trough through with no moisture return. Freaking unreal, damn you Euro lol

[starsfan65]

12z Euro looks farther east with the Western US ridge through 120 hours. Think this run will show less wintry precip across TX next week.

Total reshuffle of the pattern across Canada towards the GFS. 00z was more of Omega block to cutoff ridge and 12z doesn't cutoff the ridge and plows a positive tilt trough through with no moisture return. Freaking unreal, damn you Euro lol

We still have 5 days. It will change.

[Ntxw]

+PNA strikes back! Luckily we have tomorrow to watch and time for things to change early next week (though trends not looking good today)

[orangeblood]

+PNA strikes back! Luckily we have tomorrow to watch and time for things to change early next week (though trends not looking good today)

Yes, window is closing though, still a chance it's underestimating the strength of that Western Canada Ridge...that ridge holding strong is our best shot for a significant winter storm. Shouldn't surprise us though, these runs during this time frame (130-150 hrs out) are typically a roller coaster ride.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winter Cancel.....Its worked the last two times..

[hamburgerman7070]

The pna is supposed to break down I thought, or at least trend more neutral. Like I've been saying, until the trough is further west, not very favorable for us. We still on outside looking in unfortunately.

[Ralph's Weather]

The pna is supposed to break down I thought, or at least trend more neutral. Like I've been saying, until the trough is further west, not very favorable for us. We still on outside looking in unfortunately.

We keep getting teased by the models breaking down the PNA, but we may just be stuck with it through the heart of winter. May take until the seasonal changes begin to take effect in mid to late Feb. 13/14 was cold and dry until late winter/early spring (that year's big early event was further north though), I witnessed an epic thundersleet storm in early March that season followed by lake effect snow the next day.