TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi thinks that the current forecasted numbers from Texas to Florida are still too warm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS numbers for IAH...

Wednesday morning - 32F
Wednesday afternoon - 41.7F
Thursday morning - 29.6F

BTW - This run assumes that there is a deck of mid to high level clouds overhead on Wednesday. If these clouds are absent though, then the high temperature will likely be a bit warmer and the low temperatures will be a bit cooler.

Also - - The GFS MOS continues to look horrible this morning. It is way out of line and is trying to show only one day in the 50s out of this with no lows below freezing. A scenario such as that is pretty much laughable, and there is simply no way we will get off that easy. lol.

[southerngale]

Wow, looks like the NWS thinks it will be a lot warmer than before. Last night, they showed our high for New Year's Day at 46° - this morning they show our high at 59° for New Year's Day.

Geesh... that's a huge jump for just a few hours.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, looks like the NWS thinks it will be a lot warmer than before. Last night, they showed our high for New Year's Day at 46° - this morning they show our high at 59° for New Year's Day.

Geesh... that's a huge jump for just a few hours.

59? Well I can almost guarantee you that will be wrong. The Lake Charles NWS office must be buying into the GFS MOS data too much, and the MOS data is almost always too warm with these kind of events. Our NWS office over here in Houston is calling for 52F on New Year's day, and if we are 52F, then I highly doubt that you guys over in Beaumont will be able to reach 59F.

I suspect that the Lake Charles office will likely lower their temperatures once again tomorrow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are the 18z GFS surface numbers for IAH...

Tuesday morning - 37F

Tuesday afternoon - 48F

Wednesday morning - 30F

Wednesday afternoon - 45F

Thursday morning - 30F

Thursday afternoon - 52F

The lows may still be a couple of degrees too warm, but you get the idea. Chilly days and cold nights look to be the rule from next Tuesday through next Thursday.

[hurrican19]

There is no such thing as the "Beaumont Office" it comes out of Lake Charles, LA

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is no such thing as the "Beaumont Office" it comes out of Lake Charles, LA

Beaumont office...Lake Charles office...they basically mean the same thing. It is enough to get my point across. For the sake of accuracy though, I have gone back and edited my original post.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS numbers for IAH...

Tuesday morning - 37.2F

Tuesday afternoon - 48.9F

Wednesday morning - 29.8F

Wednesday afternoon - 47.3F

Thursday morning - 30.7F (assuming scattered clouds. If these clouds are absent however, then temperatures will be colder)

Thursday afternoon - 49.2F

...The trend continues to be a colder Wednesday morning and a warmer Thursday morning...kind of a reverse of what we thought a day or two ago.

[Kennethb]

Here in South Louisiana, with low dewpoints and clear skies with no wind, lows near 20 and highs in the low forties is not out of the question.

Looks to be a quick shot of cold air with high pressure moving east rather quickly, hence probably only one night of a hard freeze, with temperature moderating sooner.

[Jagno]

ZoneCast:
Dated: 246 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2007 Expires: 430 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007
Includes the Parishes: Calcasieu, Jefferson, Orange
Includes the Cities: Lake Charles, Beaumont/Port Arthur, Orange
With 3 consecutive nights below freezing I pray it doesn't last long or it'll be some pipe busting nightmares for many.:eek:

New Years Day...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. Lows in the upper 20s.
Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. Lows in the upper 20s.
Thursday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. Lows in the upper 20s.

Now I know I'll be spending my day wrapping mine as well as covering my citrus trees.

[jasons2k]

The NWS HGX has raised their morning lows just a tad. This cold shot may not be so bad after all as most of the really cold air thankfully goes east.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the morning HGX AFD...

PLAN ON KEEPING
TEMPS (ESP HIGHS) WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH ONGOING STRONG CAA AND LOW H85 TEMPS. ANTICIPATE A
GOOD FREEZE ACROSS ALL OF SE TX EXCEPT AT THE BEACHES TUE NIGHT.
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD AGAIN SEE FREEZING TEMPS WED
NT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT AS TO THE AREAL EXTENT. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALL SHOW THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY THURS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...GFS & ECMWF BOTH SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WED NT. SHOULD THE CIRRUS BE THIN ENOUGH...LOW
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS THAN
ADVERTISED IN THE CURRENT FCST - AND VICE VERSA IF IT ENDS UP
BEING MORE SUBSTANTIAL.

[jasons2k]

So for now, they're splitting the difference...

[southerngale]

Since I posted yesterday afternoon, NWS lowered our high on New Year's Day from 59° to 49° and now back up to 53° - they have lowered the lows on Tuesday night and Wednesday night to 27° each night though. If they're off by about 4 or 5 degrees too warm, like they often are, it could get dang cold overnight. It'll warm up during the day and with no precipitation expected, it's just cold. I'd like to see something white along with the cold though.

[southerngale]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
334 PM CST SUN DEC 30 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-311200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
334 PM CST SUN DEC 30 2007

THIS IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF
COAST STATES MONDAY EVENING. AN IMPOSING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS COLORADO...BUILDING TO AROUND 1056 MB...WILL RIDGE SOUTH AND
EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. ITS ASSOCIATED BLUE NORTHERS
WILL CARRY COLD CONTINENTAL AIR...ORIGINATING OVER THE SNOW-
COVERED FIELDS OF CANADA...THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT...AVERAGING
A NEGATIVE 3 DEGREES PER HOUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND
CHILL...EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S.

THE FRIGID CONTINENTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE IN ON BLUE
NORTHERS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY`S EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH WIND CHILL...
EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THE WINDS RELAX...ALLOWING THE PROCESS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO FURTHER CHILL THE NEWLY ARRIVED CANADIAN AIR. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

PERSONS SHOULD BEGIN TAKING THE NECESSARY STEPS TO PROTECT PLANTS
AND ANIMALS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS operational shows 29F at IAH on Wednesday morning and the 18z GFS MOS is in agreement and also shows 29F at IAH. Considering the MOS and operational tend to be a couple of degrees too warm at this range (in terms of radiational cooling nights), I think mid to upper 20s are definitely a good bet at IAH next Wednesday AM with possibly some lower to middle 20s in outlying locations.

BTW - - The 18z GFS has cooled 850mb temperatures as well. It now shows around -4.5C air overhead by Wednesday morning. With calm winds and clear skies, a hard freeze threat seems likely for quite a few places north of I-10.

[pwrdog]

No cirrus clouds and I think IAH will fall to 26....

This has been a weird winter... Hou NWS has missed the low temps this year by 2-4 degrees more times than I can ever recall ..

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS MOS for IAH...

Wednesday morning - 30F
Thursday morning - 29F

Keep in mind that the MOS is usually a bit too warm on nights with good radiational cooling, so the actual numbers may be a few degrees cooler under ideal conditions.

BTW, here is the operational run's (00z) temperature output for IAH as well...

Wednesday morning - 30F
Thursday morning - 28F

[jasons2k]

NWS has now lowered their forecast lows as well.

[jeff]

Problem with IAH is that one wants to forecast what the atmosphere is capable of producing...mid 20's given good radiational conditions. The problem is that IAH tends to read warm due to urbanization around the temp gage as Conroe reads cold due to cold air drainage into the San Jacinto River valley. For these reasons to make a temp forecast for a point (official) may not always represent what happens 5-10 miles away from that point especially when dealing with light winds, clear skies, and low dewpoints where the urban heat cores really stand out.

With all that said I still think 25-28 along and N of US 59 for Wed. AM with Wharton and Victoria being colder than IAH...even though Spring, The Woodlands, and Cypress may see 26-29 with IAH dropping to 27-30. Conroe will be very much colder likely below 25...maybe down to 23. Everybody else will fall in between except for the beaches where they will stay in the mid to upper 30's. Will also likely only see 30-32 within the 610 Loop where urban heat effect is the strongest.