Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

NWSFO Austin/San Antonio chimes in ...

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ENSURE ANOTHER BREEZY
AND DAMP DAY FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. THE MID/LONG-RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS AN END TO THE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE
GFS BEING A MUCH WETTER AND SLOWER OUTLIER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO FALL INTO THE MID-30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SLEET (NO ACCUMULATIONS) TO MIX IN WITH
THE COLD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS EVERYTHING AS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTERY MIX OF COLD RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET ACROSS
LLANO...BURNET...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY...BUT AT LEAST
THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE. WEDNESDAY MORNING`S LOWS WILL BE THE
COLDEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
EARLY DECEMBER NORMALS.

[Ntxw]

Hey guys, I know we're still focusing about early week but ECMWF and GFS both are advertising potentially an even better set up next weekend aimed more for us (Texas). Still far out for low pressure features but usually with these type of tight baroclinic intrusions there's almost always a storm.

[orangeblood]

Hey guys, I know we're still focusing about early week but ECMWF and GFS both are advertising potentially an even better set up next weekend aimed more for us (Texas). Still far out for low pressure features but usually with these type of tight baroclinic intrusions there's almost always a storm.

Good catch Ntxw, the only concern would be the trough forming southeast of Hawaii...if that's not as strong as currently forecasted, the northern stream energy could have room to dig further to the southwest. That feature might be something to pay attention to during the evolution of next weeks pattern!!!

[Kelarie]

You know it almost seems like this is going to be a more active winter than last year. And it was all doom and gloom, with some of the pro mets already writing winter off. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[cheezyWXguy]

You know it almost seems like this is going to be a more active winter than last year. And it was all doom and gloom, with some of the pro mets already writing winter off. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

True, but I wouldnt make any call yet. Considering we are still in a la nina the odds are stacked in favor of a generally warmer, drier winter. Thats not to say we wont get winter events to happen, in fact we may have a big one or two like last year, but its going to be about getting all the factors just right at the same time. On another note, I do remember some speculation last winter about "double la ninas" where the second winter in a row with a la nina is generally the colder of the two. Unfortunately, that is all it is - speculation.

[Ntxw]

True, but I wouldnt make any call yet. Considering we are still in a la nina the odds are stacked in favor of a generally warmer, drier winter. Thats not to say we wont get winter events to happen, in fact we may have a big one or two like last year, but its going to be about getting all the factors just right at the same time. On another note, I do remember some speculation last winter about "double la ninas" where the second winter in a row with a la nina is generally the colder of the two. Unfortunately, that is all it is - speculation.

Very good points! Last year I remember one of the promets saying a weaker nina would allow for cold up in the cold regions that would march down the rockies and some semblance of a subtropical jet to aid. Back in our nino 09-10 north texas had several wintry events but none of them were really from arctic intrusions like we've seen last year and this coming week, they were mostly Canadian/modified. Those storms back then were on the edge aided by a closed off low to cool the columns.

The past several (including this week) is mainly open waves that overrun bitter cold air where the 0c and -10c lines are very close to each other representing the arctic air masses in the ninas. March of 08 was a weak nina with another example of this kind of setup. Just something I have noticed between the ninas and ninos here regarding winter storms. So a closed off low is not the only way to get snow in these parts

[South Texas Storms]

Hey guys, I know we're still focusing about early week but ECMWF and GFS both are advertising potentially an even better set up next weekend aimed more for us (Texas). Still far out for low pressure features but usually with these type of tight baroclinic intrusions there's almost always a storm.

Could this next system possibly give SA/Austin/Houston a better chance for some wintry precip. than this system?

One thing I will say about this year's winter pattern that appears to be setting up is that I like it a lot more than last year's winter pattern. Even if we don't get very many chances for wintry precip. this season, it at least looks like we will continue to slowly chip away at our awful historic drought with good rain chances about once a week or so. That would make me a very happy man.

[Ntxw]

Ok so the NAM hasn't changed much. Anyone notice the 1056 high over yellowstone? That's high...

Could this next system possibly give SA/Austin/Houston a better chance for some wintry precip. than this system?

Hard to say at this point, but snow cover will exist by then all the way to Oklahoma at least so it's promising

[iorange55]

Ok so the NAM hasn't changed much. Anyone notice the 1056 high over yellowstone? That's high...

I was about to post with, "The NAM is still being NAMMY" I figured that wasn't great insight, though.

I did notice that. I have to imagine with such a cold airmass coming down, it'll come down quicker than expected. Also, we know the NAM is probably still too fast with the moisture.

To me it looks like a winter storm is definitely in the makings from North Texas into Oklahoma.

[iorange55]

GFS 00Z looks fairly similar. Doesn't look like any significant changes, not that I am seeing at least.

[Ntxw]

GFS 00Z looks fairly similar. Doesn't look like any significant changes, not that I am seeing at least.

It trended south and east a way's difference from 12z. Storm at least. Could be cherry picking though. Two more globals to go! Last night it had a small swath from abilene to the falls only. I'd say it's an improvement.

[Turtle]

Wow, 00z looks pretty bad! Temps look pretty warm with 1 day in the 40s, rest in the 50s. Hardly anything record-breaking. Nothing about this looks impressive for my location (NE Texas) to me except the rainfall amounts.

Here's something from the Shreveport NWS:

"After most of the precipitation has left the area Monday night/Tuesday morning, cold air will funnel in from the northwest. A brief changeover to wintry precipitation is possible over areas of southeast Oklahoma, extreme northeast Texas, extreme northern Louisiana and southwest Arkansas Monday night/Tuesday morning."

[iorange55]

Wow, 00z looks pretty bad! Temps look pretty warm with 1 day in the 40s, rest in the 50s. Hardly anything record-breaking. Nothing about this looks impressive for my location (NE Texas) to me except the rainfall amounts.

Here's something from the Shreveport NWS:

"After most of the precipitation has left the area Monday night/Tuesday morning, cold air will funnel in from the northwest. A brief changeover to wintry precipitation is possible over areas of southeast Oklahoma, extreme northeast Texas, extreme northern Louisiana and southwest Arkansas Monday night/Tuesday morning."

No one said anything about record breaking. Just a day or two ago we didn't expect anything. The trends are still fine. Don't hang on little details yet.

[Turtle]

Wow, 00z looks pretty bad! Temps look pretty warm with 1 day in the 40s, rest in the 50s. Hardly anything record-breaking. Nothing about this looks impressive for my location (NE Texas) to me except the rainfall amounts.

Here's something from the Shreveport NWS:

"After most of the precipitation has left the area Monday night/Tuesday morning, cold air will funnel in from the northwest. A brief changeover to wintry precipitation is possible over areas of southeast Oklahoma, extreme northeast Texas, extreme northern Louisiana and southwest Arkansas Monday night/Tuesday morning."

No one said anything about record breaking. Just a day or two ago we didn't expect anything. The trends are still fine. Don't hang on little details yet.

Okay but it's disheartening to see GFS showing 40s with rain rather than 30s from past few days.

[iorange55]

Okay but it's disheartening to see GFS showing 40s with rain rather than 30s from past few days.

Well, remember the GFS isn't the only model.

Tomorrow should be a telling day. Hopefully we'll find out if it's just going to be a very minor winter event for North Texas, or something more significant.

Plus, the signs look good even past this event. This won't be our only shot.

(Still waiting on the Euro to come out in a bit.)

[somethingfunny]

One thing that I do know is that La Ninas with their typical short, sharp, shallow arctic air intrusions usually produce a lot more ice storms than snowstorms. You can see it with this system as well...an over-running event warmer air aloft, colder air nosing in at the surface, and not much moisture in the dendritic snowflake growth zones of the atmosphere. Be careful what you wish for...

[Kelarie]

More from Shreveport:

AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MAKE A PUSH EWD LATE MON...COLD AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP BEGINNING
LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF I-30. SOME
ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH TRYING TO PINPOINT AN
AMOUNT AT THIS POINT IS LIKELY FUTILE. EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
EVADE THE COOLER PROFILES FURTHER S AND E...AS DRY AIR QUICKLY
FILTERS IN. PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF OUR REGION BY LATE
TUE/EARLY WED...AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ENE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

CANADIAN RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM...MAKING FOR A SEASONAL COOL DOWN. ANOTHER FRONT
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP.
KEPT STATUS QUO WITH RESPECT TO POPS FOR NOW. /12/

[iorange55]

The new run of the GFS and the two new runs of the NAM show less and less moisture.

Not a good trend.

[Ntxw]

The new run of the GFS and the two new runs of the NAM show less and less moisture.

Not a good trend.

GFS is actually much much wetter. Just not as aggressive with the cold with energy hanging back. NAM was overdoing things and is coming back to reality. However, it's trending stronger with the trough swinging out, even though the atmosphere will have been worked up and moisture starved, if it cuts off in time perhaps it would somehow find it, maybe.

[orangeblood]

The new run of the GFS and the two new runs of the NAM show less and less moisture.

Not a good trend.

Yeah, one of the scenarios I was worried about with this system looks like it's coming to fruition...the upper level energy hangs back for too long and then gets sheared as it starts the move east across the southern plains. Looks like a light snow event Monday night into Tuesday for the metroplex westward but still a glimmer of hope that this system doesn't get sheared as much as currently depicted.