Texas Winter 2017-2018

[OKMet83]

Along the lines of what I posted above several post ago... OUN (Norman NWS) now talking about About SIGNIFICANT amounts of FRZ Rain early next week... I get OUN only covers portions of WRN N TX... That said we are nearly 7 Days out and this event could shift further North or even South in time... So it's something to keep a watchful eye on!

Portion of the NORMAN AFD

For late Sunday into Tuesday (technically, this forecast only goes
through Monday), southerly flow is forecast to develop over the
cold surface airmass. This may lead to significant amounts of
freezing rain if everything comes together as currently forecast
by the operational GFS and ECMWF. However, model guidance that far
out is not usually very reliable, and ensemble forecasts for that
time period clearly show a lot of variability.

CmS

Portion of the FT WORTH NWS AFD

if the current forecast comes to fruition. Early in
the week, broad troughing will lead to a resurgence of Gulf
moisture as southerly flow resumes. In this scenario, strong
ascent would lead to widespread precipitation across much of the
Southern Plains. While a few models indicate temperatures
supportive of wintry precipitation, the majority of ensembles
support warmer temperatures and rain as the predominant
precipitation type at this time.

[orangeblood]

18z GFS is similar to the 12z Euro, just not as cold. It keeps majority of the winter wx up in OK & AR. The 12z Euro EPS didn't really support the Op but it's not uncommon for the Op to pick up trends before the EPS. That the 18z GFS trended towards the Euro is usually a clue that the Euro might sniffing something out that even the EPS missed. I'm now very interested in the 00z runs.

Possibly, particularly due to us approaching the op strike zone but to have almost no support from any of its members gives me pause. Great test case though!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Along the lines of what I posted above several post ago... OUN (Norman NWS) now talking about About SIGNIFICANT amounts of FRZ Rain early next week... I get OUN only covers portions of WRN N TX... That said we are nearly 7 Days out and this event could shift further North or even South in time... So it's something to keep a watchful eye on!

Portion of the NORMAN AFD

For late Sunday into Tuesday (technically, this forecast only goes
through Monday), southerly flow is forecast to develop over the
cold surface airmass. This may lead to significant amounts of
freezing rain if everything comes together as currently forecast
by the operational GFS and ECMWF. However, model guidance that far
out is not usually very reliable, and ensemble forecasts for that
time period clearly show a lot of variability.

CmS

Portion of the FT WORTH NWS AFD

if the current forecast comes to fruition. Early in
the week, broad troughing will lead to a resurgence of Gulf
moisture as southerly flow resumes. In this scenario, strong
ascent would lead to widespread precipitation across much of the
Southern Plains. While a few models indicate temperatures
supportive of wintry precipitation, the majority of ensembles
support warmer temperatures and rain as the predominant
precipitation type at this time.

Is this including WNTX or just limited to OK?

[EnnisTx]

Along the lines of what I posted above several post ago... OUN (Norman NWS) now talking about About SIGNIFICANT amounts of FRZ Rain early next week... I get OUN only covers portions of WRN N TX... That said we are nearly 7 Days out and this event could shift further North or even South in time... So it's something to keep a watchful eye on!

Portion of the NORMAN AFD

For late Sunday into Tuesday (technically, this forecast only goes
through Monday), southerly flow is forecast to develop over the
cold surface airmass. This may lead to significant amounts of
freezing rain if everything comes together as currently forecast
by the operational GFS and ECMWF. However, model guidance that far
out is not usually very reliable, and ensemble forecasts for that
time period clearly show a lot of variability.

CmS

Portion of the FT WORTH NWS AFD

if the current forecast comes to fruition. Early in
the week, broad troughing will lead to a resurgence of Gulf
moisture as southerly flow resumes. In this scenario, strong
ascent would lead to widespread precipitation across much of the
Southern Plains. While a few models indicate temperatures
supportive of wintry precipitation, the majority of ensembles
support warmer temperatures and rain as the predominant
precipitation type at this time.

Is this including WNTX or just limited to OK?

That includes WNTX as well.

[Ntxw]

Here comes the cold in NW and Western Canada. A couple of big cold highs will come down, one at the end of this week and one following that early next week. The thaw, was/is basically this week. It looks like January has a good chance to be a below normal winter month in eons!

[orangeblood]

reload reload reload...almost complete flip from last year. One of these Arctic HPs is bound to deliver a decent storm at some point, right ?

[Cpv17]

Here comes the cold in NW and Western Canada. A couple of big cold highs will come down, one at the end of this week and one following that early next week. The thaw, was/is basically this week. It looks like January has a good chance to be a below normal winter month in eons!

I’d like to see some negative 40’s and 50’s up there before I get too excited. That’s just me though lol

[MississippiWx]

:uarrow: reload reload reload...almost complete flip from last year. One of these Arctic HPs is bound to deliver a decent storm at some point, right ?

Different from most every year lately it seems.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian continues to indicate a winter storm risk across a large part of TX early next week.

[Ntxw]

0z Canadian continues to indicate a winter storm risk across a large part of TX early next week.

GFS has a little snow in N Texas and east Tx too, both not far from today's euro.

[Ntxw]

I’d like to see some negative 40’s and 50’s up there before I get too excited. That’s just me though lol

You'll rarely see -50s up there that isn't a local effect even in years like 1983 or 1989. It's not so much about how intense the raw values are, it's area and duration. A couple of points. The first point is the GFS was showing 10s, 20s, and 30s above roughly a week ago. That's a way way off reality. Secondly it's the persistence of the cold that keeps building and rebuilding on our side of the globe this winter. Go back to the previous winter threads the past few years. The best you will find is -10s and 0s for the coldest periods and many times you will hear cold is on the other side of the globe. 2013/2014 was the last true winter with persistent cold up there

You can have an area of -40s and not feel a thing if it slides east in Canada. But a large area of -20s that strikes directly has more influence.

[Ntxw]

Emphasis on the cold that's been in North America

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/948351934284681218

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, didn't you say that until PNA relaxes, if it does, the southern plains will miss out and most storms will be east? I would like to see that happen but hasn't happened yet.

[Ralph's Weather]

Ntxw, didn't you say that until PNA relaxes, if it does, the southern plains will miss out and most storms will be east? I would like to see that happen but hasn't happened yet.

It does make it tricky as we are the beginning point for storms vs getting more mature systems in TX.

[northjaxpro]

6Z GFS showing 1052 mb Arctic High on this upcoming Monday (1/15), moves it south into the Central Plains by next Tuesday morning, while at the same time a disturbance over Eastern TX develops and what appears to be a coastal trough hugs the SE Texas coast region into.middle of next week. Possible wintry precip down into Eastern TX late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

[TheProfessor]

Well guys, the models have been tantalizing me with my dream storm. Unfortunately it might end up just west of me(Euro has Indy getting 20 inches of snow.) I'm hoping it's the typical Euro being too far west and that the GFS and NAM score a coup. Fingers crossed.

[Cpv17]

Well guys, the models have been tantalizing me with my dream storm. Unfortunately it might end up just west of me(Euro has Indy getting 20 inches of snow.) I'm hoping it's the typical Euro being too far west and that the GFS and NAM score a coup. Fingers crossed.

Yeah it may very well be the best chance you’ve had at a significant snow event during your time in Columbus. It’s looking like quite a storm in that area. Meanwhile, back here in TX, the CMC and GFS both have accumulating snowfall in SE TX next week. Bring that inside 2 days and then I’ll start getting a lil excited.

[wxman57]

Well guys, the models have been tantalizing me with my dream storm. Unfortunately it might end up just west of me(Euro has Indy getting 20 inches of snow.) I'm hoping it's the typical Euro being too far west and that the GFS and NAM score a coup. Fingers crossed.

The GFS indicates that a fair amount of that precip may fall as freezing rain or sleet vs. snow (particularly in western TN/KY). I think that the EC snowfall graphics may include sleet and freezing rain as well, so the snow amounts may be too high.

[TheProfessor]

Well guys, the models have been tantalizing me with my dream storm. Unfortunately it might end up just west of me(Euro has Indy getting 20 inches of snow.) I'm hoping it's the typical Euro being too far west and that the GFS and NAM score a coup. Fingers crossed.

The GFS indicates that a fair amount of that precip may fall as freezing rain or sleet vs. snow (particularly in western TN/KY). I think that the EC snowfall graphics may include sleet and freezing rain as well, so the snow amounts may be too high.

I didn't check the text the Euro in Indy but yeah there's definitely sleet falling on the GFS and CMC, however There might be something off with the P-type on some of the GFS runs. There were a few runs where it was showing sleet but the warm nose it had was very small and less than 1 degree C, there likely wouldn't be much melting there in heavy precipitation if that were to occur.

[bubba hotep]

The 00z Euro dropped the N. Texas winter wx on the surface maps but the changes at H5 weren't dramatic and the 00z EPS trended slightly more favorable. Plenty of time to watch this but it is at least something to track. Also, EPS has started to walk back the temp spike around the 20th. It has had a pretty noticeable warm bias in the longer range this winter.